Why is Ken Paxton vulnerable against James Talarico in the 2026 Texas Senate race?

Kristen Soltis Anderson ran a New York Times focus group of 2024 Trump voters who did not plan to back Ken Paxton. Many said they would have voted for a conventional Republican such as John Cornyn, but saw Paxton as personally corrupt. Anderson calls it a one-two punch of a bad national environment and a deeply flawed candidate. Terrence Woodbury says James Talarico has found a counter to attacks on transgender issues by pointing voters at billionaires instead.

• Kara Swisher cites a two-point Talarico edge in the RealClearPolitics average and more than $500 million in ad spending.
• Some focus group members said they might leave the Senate line blank rather than vote for either candidate.

▸In their words

“Give us one word to describe him, we got a lot of, he's a crook, he's a criminal.” Kristen Soltis Anderson · at 54:51 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pivot (2026-10-25). Read the whole episode summary →

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