Which 2026 Senate races does Dave Wasserman see as Democrats' best pickup chances?

Dave Wasserman ranks North Carolina as the Democrats' best Senate pickup, followed by Ohio and Alaska, then Texas and Maine, then Iowa, with Kansas and Nebraska as long shots. Democrats must also hold Michigan, which he calls their most vulnerable seat. His range runs from 48 or 49 seats on a bad night to 54 on a very good one, with a 51-49 Democratic Senate as his base case.

• Wasserman sees Texas and Maine as pure toss-ups.
• In a 51-49 Senate he expects John Fetterman to be the wild card.
• Terrence Woodbury is more bullish, predicting wins in Texas, North Carolina and Ohio for a 52-seat majority.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pivot (2026-10-25). Read the whole episode summary →

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