Answered from Pivot Extra: From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds · Pivot · 2026-10-25
Kristen Soltis Anderson says polls tend to miss in years when Donald Trump is on the ballot, because he draws out voters who are hard to reach. Polls over-represent highly engaged people, which actually helps in a midterm, so the 2018 and 2022 midterm polls were fairly accurate. Her worry for 2026 is that Democrats are the most eager to answer surveys, and that the Trump-era error could still bleed into states like Iowa.
Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pivot (2026-10-25). Read the whole episode summary →