How many House seats does Dave Wasserman expect Democrats to gain in the 2026 midterms?

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report puts the median outcome at a Democratic gain of 15 to 20 House seats, which would leave Democrats at roughly 230 to 235 seats. Democrats needed to flip only three Republican seats for a majority, and Wasserman counts more than 20 Republican-held seats as toss-up or worse.

Cook moved 11 more House races toward Democrats, many in red states Trump carried easily in 2024.
Wasserman says Republicans' mid-decade redistricting push yielded only three or four extra seats.
Races he names as unexpected Republican trouble include Kentucky's 6th, New York's 21st, Nevada's 2nd and a western North Carolina seat Trump won by about 10 points.

▸In their words

“I think the median outcome is a Democratic gain somewhere in the 15 to 20 seat range.” Dave Wasserman · at 10:56 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pivot (2026-10-25). Read the whole episode summary →

▸More from this episode

Q2Which 2026 Senate races does Dave Wasserman see as Democrats' best pickup chances?Q3Why does Kristen Soltis Anderson think midterm polls are more reliable than Trump-year polls?Q4What do pollsters on On with Kara Swisher think of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?Q5Why is Ken Paxton vulnerable against James Talarico in the 2026 Texas Senate race?Q6How are Black voters responding to the Supreme Court's Callais ruling, according to Terrence Woodbury?Q7Why are data centers a 2026 midterm issue, according to Kristen Soltis Anderson and Dave Wasserman?Q8Who do Kara Swisher's pollster guests see as the strongest 2028 presidential contenders?

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