What did Harry Enten predict for the House in the 2026 midterms?

Harry Enten told Pod Save America that Democrats are very likely to win the House and could win it easily. He called the Cook Political Report range of 227 to 240 Democratic seats a reasonable middle ground, said 225 seats feels more like a floor than a ceiling, and said he would not be surprised by more than 240. He noted that statistical models put the most likely outcome above 230, the line he uses to define a blowout.

• Cook Political Report projected Democrats flipping 12 to 25 House seats.
• Enten said Democrats reach a majority on lean, likely and solid seats alone, without any toss-ups, which he called highly unusual.
• Enten argued that a national win of 10 or 11 points instead of 9 could add 10 to 12 extra seats as Republican maps break.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-11-01). Read the whole episode summary →

▸More from this episode