Are the polls underestimating Republicans in 2026, according to Harry Enten?

Harry Enten said that in the Trump era, polls of close Senate races in states Trump previously won have underestimated Republicans by about four points on average, enough to let Republicans hold the Senate easily if it repeated everywhere. He balanced that with 2022, when Democrats beat their final polls in every Senate race within five points. Whether pollsters have fixed the problem, he said, is the question nobody can answer before Election Day.

• Tommy Vietor cited a New York Times Minnesota poll the paper itself called one of its biggest outliers, partly because Minnesota has no party registration on the voter file.
• A Washington Post poll in Kansas reported difficulty reaching Republicans.
• Enten said horse-race polls have not become less accurate over time, and that 2024 polling was fine after a large 2020 error.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-11-01). Read the whole episode summary →

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