Can Democrats win the 2026 Kansas Senate race, according to Harry Enten?

Harry Enten ranked Kansas as the most likely of the Democrats' long-shot Senate pickups, ahead of South Carolina, Nebraska, Florida and Mississippi. He cited several polls showing a tie or a small lead for Democrat Adam Hamilton, a well-known pastor, and said Republican Roger Marshall is the least popular GOP Senate nominee in Kansas this century. He added that Kansas has drifted left relative to the nation, backing Trump by 16 points in 2024 against 13 in Texas.

• Enten said South Carolina is racially polarized and inelastic, so a Democrat can reach 45 to 47% but 50% is hard.
• Enten said early-vote data shows Black turnout up significantly, which he sees helping most in Georgia and Texas.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-11-01). Read the whole episode summary →

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