What did Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart say about the 2026 Senate midterm polls?

Rory Stewart explained that Democrats need four seats to flip a 53–47 Senate, and that polls showed 11 to 13 point swings against the incumbent party, against a usual midterm swing of about seven. He warned pollsters had missed in the last four cycles. Alastair Campbell read out the closing New York Times poll: Democrats up 11 in Michigan, 7 in Texas, 6 in Maine, 5 in Kansas and Ohio, 2 in Alaska and 1 in Iowa. Campbell, a self-described pessimist, still expected several flips.

• Across those seven states Trump's approval was minus 21, according to Campbell.
• Trump's approval among white voters without college degrees fell below 50% for the first time.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on The Rest Is Politics (2026-11-03). Read the whole episode summary →

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