podcast
Dems won. Now what?
Today, Explained · · Transcript & summary by WhipScribe
It pairs a reporter's read on why the Democratic wave happened with a veteran strategist's concrete to-do list for what the party should pass next.
Today, Explained · · Transcript & summary by WhipScribe
It pairs a reporter's read on why the Democratic wave happened with a veteran strategist's concrete to-do list for what the party should pass next.
Tap a chapter to open that moment in the transcript; the link to it is copied for you.
“This is a repudiation of the Republicans, not a vindication of the Democrats.” Rahm Emanuel · at 16:39 — open in the transcript →
“This is a president who could respond to these results not through moderation, but through escalation.” Astead Herndon · at 11:08 — open in the transcript →
Democrats came out of the 2026 midterms with wins that reached into Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Michigan, and Vox's Astead Herndon reads the night as a verdict on President Trump more than a new love for the party. In his account, the forces that were supposed to protect Republicans fell short: districts redrawn for the GOP in Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Alabama still flipped, and heavy spending, including Elon Musk's money in Texas and ads built on crypto, prediction markets and trans issues, did not move voters who were already feeling higher prices.
The message that worked, Herndon argues, was pocketbook populism: affordability, which the party fully adopted after Zohran Mamdani's 2025 New York win, tied to a corruption charge against the administration and new worries about AI and data centers. Trump's own reaction swung between offers to work with Democrats and threats to veto everything, and Herndon warns that a weakened president may escalate rather than moderate.
Rahm Emanuel, who helped Democrats take the House in 2006, brings a governing plan rather than a victory lap. He wants a lobbying and ethics package in the first two months, a $20 minimum wage by 2030 and a rollback of tariffs, all designed to force Trump to either sign or veto. He backs investigations of foreign money but opposes impeachment. He also urges Democrats to keep courting the Republicans and independents who helped flip red seats, citing Joe Biden's focus on uniting his party rather than the country. On the 2028 field and Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, he offers praise and jokes but no endorsement.
Former mayor, ambassador and White House chief of staff who, as a House Democratic leader, helped the party win the House in 2006 and add about 20 more seats in 2008.
On Today, Explained, Rahm Emanuel argues the win only counts if Democrats deliver change in 2027. His list starts with a lobbying and ethics reform bill in the first two months, then a minimum wage of $20 by 2030 and a repeal or restriction of the tariffs he blames for rising prices. He expects bipartisan votes on all of it, which leaves Trump with a choice to sign or veto that Emanuel says Democrats win either way.
Rahm Emanuel wants Democrats to clean up all three branches of government. His package would ban stock trading and prediction-market betting by officials, require blind trusts, and add term limits or a retirement age. What he calls the Jared Kushner rule would bar foreign money while in government and for two years after leaving, aimed at payments from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Rahm Emanuel says he opposes impeachment because it focuses on one person and will not succeed, while the whole government and Trump's cabinet need cleaning up. He does support investigations, naming the money from Venezuelan oil and Jared Kushner's Qatari and Saudi funds, but calls those probes the groundwork for change rather than change itself.
Vox's Astead Herndon says Democrats won several districts drawn for Republicans in Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Alabama because turnout overwhelmed the new maps, though the maps still cut Democratic margins. He adds that heavy GOP spending, including Elon Musk's millions in Texas, went to crypto, prediction-market and anti-trans messages that did not land with voters who could already feel higher prices.
Astead Herndon says affordability was the Democrats' winning theme, one the party only fully embraced after Zohran Mamdani's 2025 win in New York. Candidates such as James Talarico in Texas and Jon Ossoff in Georgia joined it to a corruption charge against Trump, and some backed a moratorium on new data centers and limits on AI. Herndon calls it a bottom-versus-top election rather than right versus left.
According to Today, Explained, Trump stayed silent for about three hours on election night, then posted on Truth Social that Republicans lost because he was not on the ballot, after earlier telling voters to treat the race as if he were. He told reporters he would work with Democrats but also posted a MAGA hat reading veto. Astead Herndon rates the night an 11 out of 10 for Trump and warns against trusting his first response.
Rahm Emanuel says flipping red seats in 2026 took Republican and independent votes, so Democrats must keep that coalition to win in 2028. He points to a Kansas senator who used to be a Republican and to Neil Bush endorsing James Talarico in Texas. He argues Joe Biden promised in 2020 to unite the country but spent much of his term uniting the party, and that it cost him.
Rahm Emanuel, who calls himself close to Hakeem Jeffries, describes him as a family man, serious about his faith and a consensus builder who knows what he wants to get done. Emanuel says a large majority of around 250 seats frees Jeffries from members holding him hostage, a problem a speaker faces with a bare majority of 221.
Our own transcript of the public episode, with a timestamp about every 90 seconds. Tap a timestamp or the link button on a paragraph to copy a link that opens this page there.
0:00What a night for the old American experiment. I guess that whole focus on John Husted's ass thing didn't work. It's like a pile of muscle. I guess that whole Islamophobia throwback campaign didn't work. His name is actually Abdullah. It's Abdullah. I guess they might stop trying to make Vivek happen. that campaign didn't work. His name is actually Abdullah, Abdullah, Abdullah, papa, papa, papa. I guess they might stop trying to make Vivek happen and that the president was wrong about that awful ad. So I told him, leave it up and look upstairs and say, thank you, God, very much, I appreciate it. But maybe the most impressive thing about last night, more so than all the wins, was that for like three hours,
0:43as he watched the returns come in, President Trump was silent. No interviews, no speeches, no posts. Dems won. Now what? On Today Explained from Vox. Support for Today Explained comes from BetterHelp. It's that time of year when we're reconnecting with friends and family, and sometimes those reunions can be a little stressful. When that happens, it can help to have someone talk things through with. BetterHelp therapists are licensed, experienced professionals, including psychologists, marriage and family therapists, and more. BetterHelp is now a network with more than 125 health plans, with co-pays as low as $15 for eligible members. And if you don't have eligible insurance or live outside the U.S., you can still get 20% off your first month. Sign up and get 20%
1:31off at BetterHelp.com slash Explained. That's BetterHelp.com slash Explained. Support for today Explained comes from Anthropic, the team behind Clawed. Anthropic is a public benefit corporation founded on a hard question. That question is, how do we make sure AI goes well for people? They're working on it, publishing what they find, even when it's uncomfortable. There's hope in hard questions. Ask your hard question at clawed.ai slash today explained. That's C-L-A-U-D-E dot A-I slash today explained. Today explained Sean Ramos with my Vox colleague, Ested Herndon. Ested, was it a blue wave, a blue nami, a blue sky, maybe? What have you determined? I like the idea of blue sky, but I'll go with blue nami.
2:30I mean, I think that we were first talking about whether wave or trickle. And early in the night, it became pretty clear that this would be a resounding result for Democrats. And I think it only got more true as the night went on. We're not just talking about a blue wave here. We're talking about a seismic political earthquake. Michigan, we did it. And then there's Ohio and then there's Texas and then there's Kansas. I almost can't even believe the states I'm listing here. Last night changed the trajectory of American politics and radically expanded the geographic and demographic reach of a new Democratic Party. You know, all of that evidence really adds up to the best night that Democrats could have hoped for.
3:10And more importantly, I think, a resounding rejection of this administration from the American public. This did really feel like a referendum on our present politics, on our president, more so than the country really loves Democrats now. But did you see any particular races, be it the House, Senate, gubernatorial, whatever it may have been, that suggested like, wow, Democrats really do have some solid footing here. Certainly, I think there's a lot of fresh faces from Democrats or fresh messages that certainly had a good night. I'm thinking about Tauriko and Ossoff in Texas and Georgia who really leaned into that corruption message. We saw that really be successful. Ken Paxton says I don't have his experience. And he's right. I've never been indicted for fraud.
3:48I've never been reported to the FBI for bribery. Congressman Mike Collins, the bigot congressman. I've talked about candidates who backed a data center moratorium. I would issue a moratorium on any new data centers until the legislature can pass laws to protect Texans. Everything from water to electricity, jobs, all of it, right? Making sure we have guardrails when it comes to AI. This is what AI is for. This is what it is not for. And I think that really speaks to some of the issues that were really making up this sort of populist backlash. You have affordability, you have AI. And I think that those things really drove Democrats to really have a bottom versus top election in the ways that they want it
4:34rather than right versus left. But I think that like, although there are a lot of encouraging signs for Democrats, that certainly does not mean they're about to cakewalk to the White House in 2028. But at the same time, I think there's a lot of seeds of a message that will get them closer, I think, to a more big tent, a party unifying theme that they weren't at maybe three, four months ago. We spent a lot of time talking about redistricting, gerrymandering, this war for every last seat that was going on in the months before this election. And then ultimately last night, it felt like it didn't matter that much when you talk about what happened with Darlene Graham's race or what happened in Texas or Kansas even.
5:17I mean, why didn't that pan out for the Republicans? Well, I would say a couple of things. One, it still matters because their margins could have been even bigger. So I think we should also say it still has an effect, even though Democrats were able to overcome some of those gerrymanders. But you're right. Democrats won several districts that were specifically drawn for Republicans to win in Florida, in North Carolina, in Texas, in Alabama. I think it actually shows how Trump's rigging of the game caused an electoral backlash. I mean, I think we can't overstate that he tried to win these midterms months ago when he was trying to redraw these maps in Republican favor. Well, I think it's been a wonderful process.
5:58They've been, the Democrats, they've redistricted for years. And now we took our shot and it looks like we're going to pick up a lot of seats. And that's a good thing. He tried to win them two months ago when he was leaning into voter intimidation and state voter roll purchase. Hundreds of thousands of non-citizens and dead people are listed and active on the voter rolls. And yet we still have elections with no voter ID, no proof of citizenship and tens of millions of ballots floating aimlessly through the mail. He has taken the anti-democratic option at every turn here. And we've seen people actually respond to that. I think that we're seeing a kind of electorate that really did not like the anti-democratic, lower-D, games that Republicans were playing here.
6:47And they saw folks really come out to stand up on that front. And I got to say, I find that a little heartening, you know. I think that we sometimes assume in political journalism that these rules and these kind of structures cannot be overcome. And I think in the results yesterday, we see that that's not matching up with the public. Okay, so you wouldn't say, you know, the gerrymandering didn't work. You would just say that the turnout overwhelmed it. Yeah, trumped it is a better way to say it. But what about the money? Because that's the other thing people were really worried about. I mean, how much money Elon Musk was pouring into Texas? Did political spending not ultimately matter in the most expensive election we've ever had?
7:27Yeah, we really saw that money flop, I would say, largely. Elon Musk poured millions into specifically that Texas race. You have the GOP have a huge spending advantage. And it was around a couple issues. They tried to kind of wage this tech war and support candidates who were backing less regulation on crypto or less regulation on prediction markets. Congress shouldn't let big banks destroy Trump's crypto agenda. And I would say you also have to really lean into the kind of culture war, right? Like all of those ads were about Talfrico. They were about masculinity. They were about kind of causing and stoking trans panic. James Tallarico supports parents being charged with child abuse if they do not support transitioning their children.
8:13And we haven't really seen that really move people in maybe the ways it did three, four years ago. I think there was a projection that some of this like anti-wokeness message was forever resonant with the public. And I just don't think that's true. If anything, I think that the what they were using the money on was not a message that was resonant to people. And to your point, no amount of that spending was really able to overcome the things that people already knew. They knew they had less money in their pocket. They knew the gas prices were higher. And that's where the head was in the ballot box. Affordability really has been the Democrats' calling card throughout the year. Now, I think it's important to say that's not where Democrats started. I mean, even when Donald Trump announced
8:58his tariffs, there was a lot of Democrats who were hemming and hawing about whether that should be something that they push back against. Really, the Democrats embraced that message in full after Mamdani's win in New York in 2025. And that worked for them. It actually repositioned the party from the bigger culture war focus of three, four years ago back to things that mattered most to people. And we saw that intertwined with some other policy issues, too. Corruption was really intertwined with some other policy issues, too. Corruption was really intertwined with affordability. It wasn't just that Donald Trump was kind of conducting an open grift. It was that he was doing it as things were becoming more unaffordable for you.
9:36Trump told voters to vote as if he were on the ballot. Pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Then when he took a shellacking last night, he said, it's because I wasn't on the ballot. Yeah,, please, that I'm on the ballot. Then when he took a shellacking last night, he said, it's because I wasn't on the ballot. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Truth Social. I wasn't on the ballot. And if I was, we would have won in a landslide. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump. He told reporters last night that he would be happy to work with Democrats. And then also last night he posted a MAGA hat that said veto on it. He's clearly in his feelings. How bad was his night? Maybe scale of one to ten.
10:21Yeah, it was an 11. I mean, I think if you're Donald Trump, there's no, you know, space to hide here. His handpicked candidates lost. He put Republicans in a tougher position. And then you had a kind of margin on the House that's going to give Democrats some wiggle room to really follow through on some of these accountability measures. And so I think Donald Trump is going to go through the stages of grief here. Like, you know, the first step might be, you know, maybe I'll work with them. Well, we're going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important. They've already called and they want to work with me. I have the right to veto everything. But I don't want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything.
10:59Does he follow through on that? Does he use his kind of executive power that they've steadily grown over the last two years to really try to insulate himself from Congress? I think we don't know those answers to the question yet, because this is a president who could respond to these results not through moderation, but through escalation. And I think we should be really wary of taking what he says in that initial response as something that he'll still believe in a month or two. Okay, Rahm Emanuel has been everywhere this election, and he's going to be here next because he's been here before. We'll Today Expl explain in a minute. Support for the show comes from Fetch Pet Insurance. Thank you. hit with a vet bill over $1,000. Vet bills don't have to hit that hard. Fetch is pet insurance that
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14:53with code TODAY. That's ShipStation.com, code TODAY. Taxes and fees apply. Should I call you Mayor, Ambassador, Chief? In that order. Okay. Mayor, Ambassador, Chief Emanuel, welcome to Today Explained. Thanks, Sean. How are you? Doing well. I saw you on TV last night, and here you are now. It's funny how that happens, Sean. How are you? Doing well. I saw you on TV last night and here you are now. It's funny how that happens, man. Thank you for your service to the Republic. We wanted to talk to you today because you've been here before personally, way back in 2006. It was a different Congress, a different president, certainly a different time. But can you tell people who don't remember what position you were in back then? number four and also kind of helped also in the 2008 cycle of the Democratic congressional
16:07campaign where we added another 20 seats. So Democrats were in around 254 seats when President Obama puts his left hand on the Bible. And to put a finer point on it, George W. Bush's president in 2006. You guys win control of the House and Senate and then use that control. In some respects to notch another win in 2008, which, of course, is what everyone's going to be talking about for the next two years. So so what did you do? What was the play? So this is a so let's pull back a little, take a wider lens. One, this is a repudiation of the Republicans, not a vindication of the Democrats. So you got to start understanding what happened here. It's broad, it's deep, much. I mean, I always thought we were gonna have a blue wave. This is a tsunami. I mean, this is Watergate numbers to your question does state, which is they lost last night.
17:08What we do in twenty twenty seven will determine whether we have won. And then in that case, the voters voted for change, not a Democratic version of more of the same. Understand that. You have a broad-based coalition where non-MAGA Republicans and independents are giving the Democrats a second look. Solidify this as a working coalition. Make the election transformational, not transactional. So, A, massive lobbying and ethic reform bill. First two months. Okay. Okay. Now, in 07, then there's this guy called Senator Obama and Congressman Rahm Emanuel, and we drive the last lobbying and ethics reform bill. It was 20 years ago. Power wash all of Washington. Power wash the place. All three branches.
18:00Ban stock trading. Ban prediction market participation. Mandatory blind trust mandatory term limits and or retirement age and then what i call the jared kushner rule no for no foreign money while in government and no foreign money two years afterwards no saudi arabia and qatari little blind little blind trust for you. Nuh-uh. So do all that. And then the Republican voters have voted on you and the independents will go, okay, that's a change I wanted. Do the hearings, but produce a piece of legislation that acts on the hearings. Second, everything's going up in price. What has it? The minimum wage. Last time I went up, Nancy Pelosi was speaker. She had the gavel. Pass a minimum wage, 20 by 2030.
18:46Third, repeal, restrict all these tariffs that are driving prices up. Everything I just told you, bipartisan House and Senate. You'll get bipartisan votes. And it puts Trump in a position. You sign it, we win. You veto it, we win. You veto it, we win. There's obviously this tension between legislate and investigate right now. Based on last night, people want legislate. But a lot of the base wants justice. They want Hegseth out. They want corrupt. They want their pound of flesh. So tell me how you think Democrats should balance the two. It's not an either or. But here's the lesson. Democrats should balance the two. It's not an either or. But here's the lesson. You should do the investigations.
19:29Like, where is the Venezuela oil money? If you want to hear more about that, tune into Today Explained on Friday. Okay. Where is Jared Kushner's secret account with the Qatari money and the Saudi money? And what was he doing for them for that bidding for that price? I'm all for that. But that's not change. That's the predicate. Now, I'm against this. Now, it's not popular. I'm against impeachment because it's one person and you won't get it done. All three branches are needed cleaning, not just one man. What about his cabinet? Clean it all up. The job of the Democrats is to roll up your sleeves and get to work. And again, now look, some Democrats may think this is a vindication vote. I think it's a repudiation vote and we'll earn the victory in 2027
20:18by producing change. You have to accept this. It's not like either party has a moral high ground here or a political high ground. Earn that trust, solidify that winning coalition that went from Texas to Maine, possibly from Alaska to Mississippi. Solidify it. And I think if you listen to Hakeem Jeffries last night, you listen to Chuck Schumer, they understand the test is about to come. It wasn't behind us. It's in front of us. Hakeem Jeffries feels a little unknowable sometimes. What do you think of him as Speaker of the House? Well, it's unfair because I'm close to him. Oh. Okay, so. So tell us what we don't know about him. Well, he's. Look, I. I respect this because pretty much all our conversations first start with what?
21:16A discussion checking in on each other's families as soon as we I mean, now we rush through it so we get to politics, but he's a very much a family. He takes his family serious and his role as a parent very serious. He takes it. Okay, but now he's very important to the country. Well, he's also very, I mean, I respect him for that. The other thing I can say, I only say this because he's also very observant and serious about his faith. Because I've gotten a number of texts back, I can't talk, I'm in service. So I say, put the phone down, listen to the sermon, you're going to need it. And I say that. So that's another thing you don't know. The other thing is he's a consensus builder, but he does know what he wants to get done.
22:02He's a consensus builder in a time where the Democratic tent feels like it's never been bigger. Karl Rove's in the tent now. How does he manage that tent? Karl Rove and AOC and Mamdani, how does Hakeem Jeffries use that to his advantage in this new Congress? I can't say it on a podcast. You can say anything on a podcast. That's the whole point of podcasts. No, I'm not going to do that. So I used to say to Speaker Pelosi when I was caucus chair, and we were counting votes and trying to move X or Y. I said, Mo Udall used to have a great joke. And he was, you know, the post Watergate. And he used to say, what is the difference between a cactus and a caucus? And a cactus, the pricks are on the outside. And so let me say this,
22:56what the numbers Hakeem will have is Mr. Speaker will have. Nobody can hold him hostage. When you're at 221, everybody's a kingmaker and they're going to sit there and hold you hostage. When you're at 250, okay, 254, no, you want to, Hakeem has the liberty to say, when you walk out of here, make sure the door doesn't hit you. Okay. Can I ask you about something you said on TV last night? No. Sure, you can do whatever you want. It's your show. I'm here. All right, I will. You told Democrats that they should go after Republicans now in 2028. And there are people who hear you say that, and they go, absolutely. And there are people who hear you say that. They give me the one finger wave. They want to reach through their TV screens and choke you because they're hearing
23:45they're hearing this 2024 let's go campaign with Liz Cheney kind of mindset here that did not work. Well, here's what I would say to you is just look, we don't have to do this. It's not, this is not like a hypothetical. Yeah. Go tell the Kansas senator now who's a former Republican. Forget about it. Hamilton? senator now who's a former republican forget about it hamilton yeah he's a former republican yeah okay neil bush who gave everybody a permission slip in texas said i'm voting for telereco okay that's an opening what kamala harrican is did in with they ran around talking about democracy i'm talking about people's pocketbooks. And look, having helped Senator Hamilton, having helped Nancy LaCour, the three-star general that just won in Charleston, South Carolina.
24:36You're everywhere. for her. Those are people that built a winning coalition. Now, here's the difference. The fact is, to flip red to blue, you had to get Republican votes and independents. If you want to keep going and keep winning and solidifying this coalition, you got to know who was part of it. Now, if you think you're going to go into 2028 just on the backs of Democrats, God bless you. Swing voters in swing states, swing presidential elections. You're a graduate now at the Kennedy School of Government. You have your Ph.D. You just learned it. Swing voters in swing states, swing presidential. I'll now give you an example. This will get me yelled at. President Biden made a pledge in 2020 to govern and bring America together.
25:34Yeah. He spent a good portion of his presidency bringing the party together, not the nation. And I think it actually cost him politically. I think so. Okay. So that's the lesson. Now we can either ignore it, heed it, and be smart and strategic about it. Yeah. Okay. That was the last Democratic president. I'm going to ask you about the next one. Paul McCartney told me never to drop names. You've dropped a few in this conversation. Drop one more for me. Who do you like as a candidate in 2028? And you can't pick yourself. I'm sorry. I wasn't going to do that. I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to answer that. You're not going to answer it? No, I'm not going to answer it because here's the good news for you.
26:14As I joke and say this is, look, in 2024, let's be honest, the party didn't have a choice. We were told who our nominee is. Pretty much that's true also in 2020, 2016. In 2028, you're going to have Baskin Robbins, 31 flavors. And if I decide to do this, you're looking at Rocky Road. That was good. That's a good answer. Yeah. I still want a name. Well, you ain't going to get it. So next question. That's it. That's all the time we got. That's all the questions I had for you. Mayor, Ambassador, Chief, Rahm Emanuel, thank you for your time. Yeah, I like that shirt, brother. Hey, thank you. They can't see it on the radio. No, they can't, but it takes a lot of courage to wear it. I'll talk to you, man.
27:03Thanks very much. Thank you. Appreciate it. All right. If you want to see the shirts, the conversation I had earlier with Ested will be on YouTube, which is also one of the many places you can find his show, America Actually. Peter Balanon, Rosen, Kelly Wessinger, Amin Al-Assadi, Ariana Spirou, Gabriel Donatoff, David Tattachor, and Bridger Donegan made this episode of Today Explained, and we'll have another tomorrow. As soon as autumn rolls around and you swap your iced lattes for pumpkin spice, that's your signal to start thinking about the holidays, the decor, the gifts, the shopping lists, but more importantly, the holiday treats, cheesecakes, cookies. Is there anything better? And when the recipe calls for cream cheese, there's only one option.
28:20Philadelphia, the original cream cheese made with fresh milk and real cream. This holiday season, whether you're going all out or keeping it simple, make it really Philly good. Find your favorite holiday recipe at creamcheese.com. As soon as autumn rolls around and you swap your iced lattes for pumpkin spice, that's your signal to start thinking about the holidays. The decor, the gifts, the shopping lists, but more importantly, the holiday treats. Cheesecakes, cookies, is there anything better? And when the recipe calls for cream cheese, there's only one option. Philadelphia, the original cream cheese made with fresh milk and real cream. This holiday season, whether you're going all out or keeping it simple, make it really Philly good. Find your favorite holiday recipe at creamcheese.com.