Nevada's Trump slump

0:00We're just days away from the midterm elections, which means I only really have one question. How are the issues that we've been tracking all year actually playing out on the ground? I'm Shemika Aguilis-Chemsica. And I'm Al. We're from the Culinary Union. A few weeks ago, I headed west to Nevada, where the entire midterms can basically be summed up in just three words. The Trump stuff! Nevada voted for Donald Trump in 2024, but after his trade war with Mexico and Canada, strict immigration policies, and consistently high prices, some of the people there seem to be having some buyer's remorse. That's according to one very important group that's super tapped into politics. Local text! Local text! Local text!

0:50We're in Las Vegas, outside of the headquarters of the Culinary Union. Now we're waiting for hundreds of volunteers to show up to canvas for state and local elections. And importantly, it is the first day of early voting. How many more days until election day? 17! 17, alright. And importantly, it is the first day of early voting. How many more days until election day? 17. 17, all right. This week on America Actually, midterms canvassing with the Las Vegas Culinary Union. Let's dig in. Kate holds the key to every brand asset your business has ever made. She's the only person who knows the difference between teal, turquoise, and the correct company blue. But she's going on vacation. Luckily, before the company falls into design disarray, you realize you can put Kate into Canva.

1:46Save every color, font, and logo to a brand kit everyone can access. And Kate can vacation happily in the knowledge that no one will ever use Comic Sans. What will you Canva today? Support for the show today comes from Bill. When it comes to managing money, forget the hype and look at results. Bill boasts a trillion dollars of secure payment transactions, one trillion dollars, and that powers their BillPay tools. Instead of just moving money, $1 trillion, and that powers their bill pay tools. Instead of just moving money, Bill is powering the financial operations of nearly a half million customers. Ready to talk with an expert? Visit bill.com slash proven to get started and grab a $150 gift card as a thank you.

2:19Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details. Thank you. Now, we're just a few miles from the strip, but it's kind of a world away. These are the folks who power the casinos, the hotels, the businesses that make Nevada possible, make Vegas possible. So what's today? So I wanted to go to Vegas for three reasons. First, the media, myself included, has ignored the West for far too long. Also, I wanted to see how these issues are playing out among the working class Americans that will actually decide November's elections. Plus, we've been tracking the potential impact of Latino voters in this midterm cycle, and this union is full of them. So today we're telling to be telling a story. Irene?

3:13Good morning, everyone. My name is Arvino Chua Rodriguez. I came to Las Vegas in 1992. The Culinary Union represents about 60,000 workers in Las Vegas and Reno. And in the lead up to every election, the union deploys hundreds of cooks, bartenders and casino workers to knock on doors and mobilize voters. That includes people like Irene, who spoke at a recent Canvas launch event to inspire her fellow members. And I asked one of the quarters how much they made. And they told me, and I said, oh my God. And I told my husband, let's move to Las Vegas. And he said, no, no, no, it's too cold, it's too hot. And I said, come on, let's move to Las Vegas. And I'm still working in there, 33 years in there.

4:04The Culinary Union plays an important role in state and national politics, especially in the Democratic Party. Now, today, they're focused on the midterms. But they'll also host a bunch of Democrats who are interested in running for president in the coming years, like last week when Kamala Harris stopped by. And we vote! president in the coming years, like last week when Kamala Harris stopped by. Still, just because the union leadership often endorses Democrats doesn't mean that the rank and file always follow along. And in 2024, a lot of culinary union members voted for Donald Trump, which brings us back to that buyer's remorse we've been hearing about over and over. Are we ready? We're ready.

4:49Even with our great union jobs that we had, we struggled. That never happened before, right? We're all familiar what is going on with the Trump slum. All of you guys who work in these casinos, you guys know that they're closing restaurants. You know that they are shortening hours. You know that what's happening with immigration is affecting us when they're detaining and arresting people in the middle of the street. Diana Vallis has been the union's president since 2022. And before that, she was a rank and file member for more than 30 years, starting as a guest room attendant. This Saturday, like many Saturdays in the months prior, Diana is kicking off another massive canvas operation. It's our time. It's the time to do what the Culinary and

5:40Bartender Union do, which is organize workers to do the right thing and vote for our future. Are you ready for that? Yes! Because when we vote, we win! When we vote, we win! All right, guys, have a great day today! I wanted to learn three things from Diana. How is the Trump slump affecting union members? How are issues like affordability and immigration actually playing out on the ground? And what's the tangible impact of the union's huge door-knocking efforts? You know, there's also the kind of political organizing you all do, canvassing, going door-to-door. Obviously, we're going to do that today. That's kind of not necessarily been the way everyone interacts with elections. Why is that kind of in-person politics

6:32so important for you all? The workers listen to workers. Our members are, a majority of them are housekeepers, cooks, kitchen workers, people who serve in the hospitality industry. And we've been for years and years and years doing that, and we see the results. When you knock on door and you talk to people, because in reality, we're not talking about politics. We're talking about the situation that is going on right now. Yeah, we go, we knock on doors, and we say, are you happy about the cost that is going on right now? Yeah, we go, we knock on doors and we say, are you happy about the cost of life? Are you, how do you feel about paying more money every time that you go to the store to buy your groceries?

7:13Every time that you go and fill it out, your tank, your gas is more expensive. How you feel about that? And what about healthcare costs? When we talking about our own members, so people from the community too, it's like, okay, this is why politicals are important, because through them we can make changes that is good for us. Yeah, you mentioned health care costs and cost of gas as a concern. I was wondering about the issues, like when you all are on the doors, what are the priorities that come out? Right now it's economics. And like I was saying, it's everybody struggling. And our members, they have really good jobs. They have good paid jobs. But even with that, the cost of everything is up to the roof.

8:07So the biggest thing is economics, but there is also immigration. Our members, the majority of them are immigrants, Latinos. So what happened to them, like looking at their conationals being detained and arrested, family members separated, it's very unfair. I mean, I personally, and I say this a lot, like if somebody were to tell me 10 years ago that this will happen in this country, I will be like, no, that can't happen here. Specifically about immigration? About immigration. Yes. Yes. I want to talk about those two issues. Let's go back to the kind of economics affordability part. You know, specifically in this state, there's been a decline in tourism. You called it up there the Trump slump.

9:00How has that affected your members? Well, it's affected immensely because they're not customers. Like, let's say I used to have my shift of eight hours or six hours, and now they cut it and I work in four hours. And instead of five days a week, now I'm working three days a week. So that is affecting them very, in a big, big time. So that's, that's. That's been the, that's been the key there. I saw a stat that said that even things like, you know, tourists from Canada is down 30% in this state. Like how has the last year, like, is it just, has it been that tourism decline that's mattered the most? I guess I'm wondering, since Trump came back into office, what are the ways you've seen his effect most clearly in you all's work?

9:52Yeah, the tourism from Canada and from Mexico, there has been decreasing a lot. Because when you increase tariffs to this country, your neighbors, and that is the biggest group of people who came here to Las Vegas. When you increase tariffs, where you are trashing the citizens from Canada and Mexico publicly, the President of the United States, people are not coming here. 30% of the candidates, that is the people who stay here longer to spend more money in Las Vegas and the Mexican tourists too, when that happened and when it's a group, when it's the president saying that, they're not coming. But then there's this other thing like people from California, Latinos, that they came here on weekends and spend their money here because of what happened with immigration.

10:44They didn't come. So that's also affecting that tourism. Oh, absolutely. I mean, on the immigration front, I mean, we have been tracking what polling would tell us was a change among Latinos that, you know, although Donald Trump had some success with the group in 2024, that there's been a sort of backlash in that year and that a lot of it has been driven through immigration. You're saying you're seeing that kind of flip happen among the people you're around too? Yeah, because people who voted for Trump, Latinos or non-Latinos, didn't vote for what is going on right now. They didn't vote for getting even American citizens detained and killed in the streets. Yeah. I mean, I remember, though, Republicans holding up mass deportation now signs, though, in the 2024 election.

11:32Donald Trump has certainly made no secret of his desire to conduct deportation, specifically about, you know, Latino communities, Haitian communities, people who you've targeted. I guess I wonder, like, why did it take the reality of now for people to see that when that was kind of his campaign promise coming in? Well, he said they're going to the poor violent criminals. That is not happening. Yeah. They're just taking working fathers and mothers and the kids that there are there. And when somebody tries to oppose to that, then they kill you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it sounds like what we've heard, which is that people believed him about that this would be a more targeted effort about people who maybe had a criminal history or violence.

12:20And that's not what we've seen at all in any of these cities. I guess I also wanted, though, to ask about ways both parties may mess up when it comes to talking to Latinos. Like, you know, include Democrats in some of that stuff, too. Like, what is a way that you think politicians could be better in terms of reaching people like your members? Our union is not a political organization. We support people who's going to support us, no matter what the party is. Yeah. After the break, we meet up with our Canvas volunteers and head out to northeastern Las Vegas. What will you Canva today? What will you brainstorm, collaborate on, present today? What will you resize, post, edit, imagine? What will you research, test, switch, and finally have the courage to pitch?

13:15You got this. What will you visualize, design, brand, animate, create, generate? What will you translate, pour your heart into, or have a laugh doing? Whatever you want to make, it's possible. So what will you Canva today? Support for the show comes from Fetch Pet Insurance. If you have a dog or cat, here's something you need to know. According to Forbes, one in three pets will need emergency treatment this year. And every six seconds, a pet parent gets hit with a vet bill over $1,000. Vet bills don't have to hit that hard. Fetch is pet insurance that covers accidents, illnesses, and emergency visits and pays back up to 90% of eligible vet bills. No wonder pet parents give Fetch an excellent rating on Trustpilot.

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14:46reanalyzing your genome against new research. For as long as you're a member, you can test once and stay informed. Right now, Sequencing.com is offering our listeners up to 10% off your full genome test plus free shipping. You can go to Sequencing.com and use promo code EXPLAIN10 for 10% off. That's sequencing.com, promo code EXPLAIN10. That's spelled S-E-Q-U-E-N-C-I-N-G.com, promo code EXPLAIN10. I've been out withvassing since 2018. Okay, so you're a pro. I wouldn't say a pro. Al Tate works at one of the big hotels on the Strip. He was helping coordinate a group of union volunteers when we were there. Are the vibes different now than 2018? Like, has some of it changed over time? Yes, you know, because the economy has changed.

15:46So, you know, whenever people's money go down, their attitude go up. Yeah, yeah. It's just, you know... That's a good line. They should, politicians should say that. I asked him how this Trump slump was affecting him personally, and why he's decided to get so involved in politics. So, I'm a housekeeper. So, if we don't have no tourists, then we don't sell any rooms. If we don't have any rooms, then the GRAs are laid off. You know, I'm a lending attendant. There's lending attendants that are laid off, housemen. So it's really affecting everybody hour-wise, financially. It's, you know. And that's been clear just over the last year. Like, you've just seen it. Oh, yeah, it's progressively gotten worse

16:28over the last two and a half years. Yeah, because I guess post-pandemic was a struggle probably in itself. And now there's the tariff. Now it's all this other stuff. Soon as we start coming out of the pandemic, then we got all the tariffs and we got everything that put us back right in the pandemic, actually. And the president was talking to us about, you know, the economic part and tariffs on one piece and then saying the immigration part matters a lot, too. Has that played into a role? All of it's playing an effect right now. Just like I said, it's a lot of the mentality and a lot of the things that are being done to especially the immigrants and minority people that is just, it's really outrageous.

17:10It has people scared to go to work. It has people scared to come visit. It's crazy. And that in turn then reaffects the economic part, too. I guess I was asking people some of this before, but like, you know, Trump won this state in 2024. He kind of won everywhere in 2024. You see any of that coming? Did you, were you surprised when that happened? Uh, me personally, yes, I was surprised because I just, I, especially the second term, because I know how the first term went. So the second term, it just caught me by surprise because I was like, you know, we already read this story and now we're going to go and reread it and we're finding out that it's worse this time around than it was the first time.

17:55It does feel, and this has been true in polling and the kind of the, you know, reporting we've done across the country, that a lot of people, even folks who are willing to give him a second chance and help him win that second term, have really not liked what's happened. It's a lot of buyer's remorse. You hear a lot of that too? Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now, when they're talking about the buyer's remorse, is that because of economics and immigration? Like, are they mentioning the same things? Yes. And a lot of it really is people that I talk to at work. Uh-huh. And now that we're being affected by, you know, the Trump slump, everybody's kind of like, oh, well, this is not what I signed up for.

18:31And it's kind of like, if you read the fine print, that is what you signed up for. So what's your strategy on the doors? Like, let's say that I'm somebody who voted for Trump and I'm kind of upset with what's happening, but I don't necessarily like Democrats. What do you tell me? I would just talk to you about how you feel about the economy. How do you feel about the changes that you want to make? What do you see? What are your problems? Yeah, so it's a focus on pocketbook. It's a focus on how your life is going rather than it is maybe a defense or an endorsement of a Democratic Party or things like that. I always endorse the better because I see the better in people. And right now, like I said, we have many different politicians that have many different points of view.

19:28But our strong Democratic candidates, they have the common person's point of view at heart. So it's do you want your life to be controlled by the wealthy or do you want your life to be ran the way your life can be ran? Yeah. Based off of your situation. My name is Jessica Palomino. And how long have you been in the culinary union? I want to say about eight years now. Okay. Jessica has also been knocking on doors all throughout this election season. And the top issues that she's been hearing about are the same ones that we've been hearing about all across the country. Mainly affordability and immigration. Pantries are running low on food. Not only that, but the rent is so expensive and nobody can buy a home.

20:21Is there any way that you think Democrats could be better at reaching people like you, working class people, maybe we talk about immigrants or Latinos or however we want to define it? Like, how could the other side do a better job of pitching themselves to that community? So I want to say that think outside the box, not only about themselves, but think about your neighbor. Think about your coworkers. Love them. Love each other. Last question is a question I asked your canvas partner. Let's say I'm on the doors and I don't love what's happening right now, but I don't love Democrats either. I think that they stand for stuff I don't believe in. Let's say I'm against abortion or I'm against, you know,

21:08something that is a democratic social policy. How would you talk to me on the doors to try to convince me to still come out and vote for them? I would ask you if you had children, okay? And we are 49th in education. If you don't want to make a change for yourself, then make it for your children. Okay? If you're living paycheck to paycheck, you work two jobs, you leave your family to go feed them, I'm going to say that do it for the future of your children and for them to have the American dream. I always want something better for my children. Even if I didn't get to have it in this lifetime, I know for a fact that my children will. So pass it on. Absolutely. And change starts with you. Hi, good afternoon. Are you looking for Adriana?

22:04The reason why we're out here, we're actually out here canvassing for Aaron Ford and Mr. Horsford. I'm not sure if you've heard of them. Oh, yeah, I'm about to hear about them. Let me give you a high five. So how does it work? Do you sign up for a canvassing shift? Like, have you been doing this each weekend? Is it up to you? Like, uh, it's... We're basically Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. And on Saturdays, it's more from like 10 a.m. to about 3, 4 p.m. Culinary union members who volunteer to go door-to-door actually take a leave of absence from their jobs each election. That's how important this is to them. And the point is to drive turnout among their peers, working class voters, people who might

22:55be less likely to vote, especially in the midterms, but might be the most impacted by policy. Yes, the value really is in each conversation that we have. Of course, we try to get out and get to as many doors as possible. That way, the possibility on the conversations go up. But it's really just the value of the conversations, because the better the conversation, the more the voter wants to go out and vote, and then the more it turns into a word of mouth. Oh, yeah, we talked to these people. They said X, Y, Z. And as someone who's been to a number of canvases myself, I couldn't help but get a little bit involved, just to spice things up. We're talking to the Culinary Union today because they're going around talking to people about the election.

23:39And so I think they're working their way up maybe to talk to you, but we're talking to people about whether they have a plan for Election Day, what are some of the issues that matter to them, if there's any. Like, are you someone who's thought about how you're going to vote? No, not really. I just moved out here. You just moved out here? Do you usually vote or no? Not really. I'm not into politics. Not into politics at all? All right, forget the politicians. Is there any issue that matters to you? Is there anything that you think is messed up in the country right now that you would want to be different? Of course. The candidate something, whether it's black, deaf, or not. You know what? I need to go talk to that woman.

24:14Yeah, then go talk to her. So tell me about that interaction at the doors. What was she saying? It was very positive. She was letting us know that she really wasn't in the politics. And she really felt like her voice, you know, didn't matter. And once we talked to her about things in the community and about her rights as a woman to vote, and just speaking on the future, because she has two children, so speaking on the future just helped open her eyes to see that her voice really needs to be heard, and she needs to cast her voice. Did she make a plan at the end of it? Yes. Yes, she did. She actually asked us if we knew where the closest pole was, and we let her know that she has a rec center

25:04right around the corner, and she can go in there, and we let her know that she has a rec center right around the corner, and she can go in there, and they do the same-day registration, so she can register and place her vote. I heard you say after, this is why I do this. What did you mean by that? Someone that did not have any intentions to go out and vote, just speaking to her. She switched her mind around and her thoughts and she's going to go have her voice heard. And that's what we want. The union says diversity is its strength. But in 2024, Trump made big gains among working class people of color. So I wanted to ask Al and Jessica about this dynamic specifically. Republicans have often pitted Black and Latino communities directly against one

25:53another, and they've had some success. So how realistic is a cross-racial coalition really? Like in the African-American community, of course, like you said, oh, well, the Hispanics are taking all the jobs. And, you know, it's like, if they're taking the jobs, then why are we working? So, you know, it kind of went back and forth. But, like I said... But that was a discussion that you were having in your community around 2024. Did you hear any of this stuff? And, like, how would you describe it? I heard a little bit of it, but we know that it's just lies. We've always been the black and brown community. Even at work, we're tight. We're not going to let anything break us down and apart. It seems like that's something that actually the union

26:39plays a big role in, because folks have a shared alignment of values and things like that. We're very diverse. Like he said, what do you think is the way to push back against some of those attacks? Is it just like having diverse friends and diverse life where you're not thinking about the abstract, but you know individual people? How do we make sure those attacks aren't effective? Because sometimes it feels like they are. I feel like we just got to get out and talk to people. The problem is right now with society is everybody's so impersonal. Nobody intermingles anymore. So I feel like the more we get out and have face-to-face conversations instead of conversations over the internet, and we become more personal,

27:21people start to realize that they're human, they're people, they have the same type of problems, they go through the same type of things that we go through. So it's just, you know, having more person-to-person interaction. I was going to say that all the doors that I've been knocking on, not only this time and but the time before, we all share the same things, the same feelings, the same pain, the same dreams. And it doesn't matter if you're black, brown, orange, or whatever, you need to get out into the community and get to know one another and love thy neighbor. Yeah, lower cost thy neighbor. Yeah. Lower Cross helps everybody. Yeah. This is clearly the bet for the midterm elections. Backlash to high prices unite people of all types

28:14against Donald Trump and Republicans. But it's also a preview of the upcoming 2028 presidential race, considering that this state and this union will play an important role in sorting through the Democratic field. Just this year, Democrats announced that Nevada will now vote second in its presidential primary. This union has a unique importance in the presidential primary, and this state has moved up earlier in the map. And I feel like y'all are going to have a really big role in choosing some of the next Democratic nominees. We've already seen some Democrats come to Las Vegas and come and show support with the union. It does seem as if you all will have a lot of voice in terms of the next presidential primary.

28:56What does that do? Well, we're probably going to be doing a movement like we're doing right now, but in a big scale. Having more members probably going to vote and knocking on doors. Is there a policy or a priority that for you all is top of the list that you would want a candidate to support to make clear that they support the culinary union? Is there like a litmus test or a singular issue that is most important to you all? Our commitment with our members is that we're always going to be with the people that is going to support their issues. That's always going to be that. What we're doing, what the union is doing is like organizing one by one, member to member, and that is going to continue.

29:46Because issues with the boss, they're always going to be there. Issues with the politician, they're always going to be there. And there are always going to be people who are going to stand up for those issues. And that's one of the reasons also that we're running our own members. Running your own members for elected office. For elected office, yes. That's also our vision. We've always been visualizing that and have our members involved and getting ready and say, I'll do it, and I run. As I think about what we saw in Las Vegas, it reminds me of the other places we've already been to this election cycle. A data center town hall in New Jersey. Trump's UFC event in Washington, D.C. Even that Vivek Ramaswamy town hall in Ohio.

30:36They've all basically added up to about the same thing. This election is about more than right versus left. It's also about the bottom versus the top. And even though this is a show about seeing past the individual that is Donald Trump, there's no denying how central he is to that exact dynamic. The Trump slump isn't just about prices or immigration. It's about an entire agenda that's been misaligned with most Americans. America Actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview in culture or politics. You can also watch these episodes on the Vox YouTube channel. Just go to youtube.com slash Vox or click the link in the show notes. If you enjoy our reporting and you want to learn more, sign up for my weekly newsletter, Midterms Actually.

31:31Just go to Vox.com slash Midterms Actually to learn more. That's Vox.com slash Midterms Actually. This show was edited by Kasha Brasalian, fact-checked by Esther Gimm, and mixed by Shannon Mahoney. Christopher Snyder is our video editor, and Kun Nui is our senior art director. Our executive producer is Christina Vallis, and our theme music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Additional support from Miranda Kennedy, David Tadashore, and Nisha Tata. I'm Ested Herndon, and this is America Actually. Kate holds the key to every brand asset your business has ever made. She's the only person who knows the difference between teal, turquoise, and the correct company blue. But she's going on vacation. Luckily, before the company falls into design disarray, you realize you can put Kate into Canva.

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