Why did gerrymandering and Republican spending fail in the 2026 midterms, according to Astead Herndon?

Vox's Astead Herndon says Democrats won several districts drawn for Republicans in Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Alabama because turnout overwhelmed the new maps, though the maps still cut Democratic margins. He adds that heavy GOP spending, including Elon Musk's millions in Texas, went to crypto, prediction-market and anti-trans messages that did not land with voters who could already feel higher prices.

• Herndon sees the redistricting push and voter-roll purges as anti-democratic moves that produced a backlash.
• Herndon says culture-war ads no longer move voters the way they did three or four years earlier.

▸In their words

“Yeah, we really saw that money flop, I would say, largely.” Astead Herndon · at 7:27 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Today, Explained (2026-11-04). Read the whole episode summary →

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