239. DEMOCRATS SWEEP CONGRESS: WHAT'S NEXT FOR TRUMP?

0:00As it stands at 2 a.m. Eastern Time, 7 a.m. UK time, voters have delivered a stinging rebuke to President Trump and the Republican Party as the Democrats flip seven seats with Michigan called by Fox, but we're still waiting on that one. And Alaska still to be called. Even deep red, ruby red Mississippi could be in play. Results there are on a knife edge. I didn't have that in my predictions. Projections in the House, meanwhile, could see the Democrats reaching over 240 seats. Currently, they have 225 to the Republicans, 129. They needed 218 to win. I asked you two hours ago, let's do another quick whip around now in one line. What is Donald Trump, Amanda, thinking at this moment? Well, if he was scared at the beginning of the night, he's definitely worried and scared now. And there's no doubt people are going to be fired up to figure

1:04it out. How do we bring accountability back? How do we bring and make sure we have affordability? All these things that he has not had on the table. I think now you're going to see a different kind of Congress show up with these kinds of numbers. Ed, I'm going to ask you a slightly different question, not how President Trump is feeling. How are they feeling in Silicon Valley right now? People in Silicon Valley are terrified. No question about it. I mean, what about specifically what's worrying them? Well, they've spent the past two years kissing the president's ass to put it in as lightly as possible. And I was always so surprised by this, the way that the corporate America decided to become the sycophants to the president, because to me, that was always very

1:53risky. It was always a risk that something like this would happen. For some reason, they just assumed that because of the election result that we saw in 2024, suddenly this is their time to say, OK, Donald Trump is the greatest. But to me, for whatever reason, they thought that that was the safe bet. I don't know if they actually believed in what the Trump was doing. I don't think they actually did, but they thought, okay, I need to hedge my bets. I need to protect myself. I'm going to go into the White House. I'm going to present the trophy. I'm going to sit with him at dinner and I'm going to have my love. Now they're seeing that actually that was probably the wrong move, strategically speaking. This episode is brought to you by eToro.

2:30A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change. It can all start just as the first line of a speech, but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come. That's right, Katty. Markets move on expectations, not just events. Investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for company sectors and the wider economy. So eToro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them. You could also learn from the global community of investors and see how people around the world are interpreting the same news. As with all investing, your capital is at risk. See etoro.com forward slash trip US for full terms.

3:20Hi, this is Gary Lineker from Goldhangers. The rest is football. This episode is brought to you by Wise. It's only when you start moving money between currencies that you really think about the exchange rate, the fee and what might be hidden away in the small print. Whether you're living abroad, paying someone overseas or just trying to manage your money across borders, you want a fair exchange rate, an easy transfer, and no surprises along the way. Wise keeps things simple. Wise is a smart way to move the currencies you need around the globe. It works in more than 160 countries and with over 40 currencies. Most transfers arrive instantly. Wise uses the mid-market exchange rate, like the one you see on Google, with no markups or hidden fees.

4:05So when money needs to move, you can see the rate, know the fee, and get on with it. Join millions saving billions on hidden fees by downloading the WISE app today. Be smart, get WISE, T's and C's apply. This episode is brought to you by the Financial Times. You don't need to be a journalist to know that there are countless voices out there competing to tell you the what, the who, and the where of the latest news stories. To really understand what's going on, you need to know the why. You get it all in the FT. It's a very objective paper, and it's lots of fun to read, and it makes you smarter. I also loved Janine Ganesh's opinion piece on why must a socialist always be woke. And he's making the point that the socialists in America have compelling economic policies, but cultural

4:54policies that many people in the country hate. Is there a lane for somebody who is a more culturally moderate socialist? I love the FT weekend. My very favorite thing to read on a Saturday morning. No, I love the FT. I'm just thrilled that they're a sponsor. For the Y, Financial Times, listeners of The Rest Is Politics US can save over 40% on an annual digital subscription to the Financial Times by visiting ft.com slash tripus, T-R-I-P-U-S, subject to terms and conditions. Offer expires October 28th. What I'm confused by is why didn't they see that earlier? To me, it was a layup for people. I was going to ask you. The consultants that hang out with the Broligar said, you're in a lot of trouble.

5:49I just read the 900 pages of Project 2025, and Trump hates every single one of you. Right. And he's going to move to break up your companies, and he's going to move to destroy you. He's going to have a one- to two-year window where he can totally destroy you, your family and your company. However, Trump is a transactionalist. So if you show up currying favor, millions of dollars. And Katty knows this because they did this to the Morning Joe guys. They put him in the service entrance at Mar-a-Lago. OK, so Mark Zuckerberg went to see Trump right after the election. He's waiting for hours in the service entrance. And when he went in there with his cup in his hand, he said, whatever you need, Mr. President. And they start writing checks because their political consultants told them

6:34he's going to smash your business. OK, so now they're sitting there saying, OK, we had to do that for the first two years. Now, how are we going to find our way back? And so the guy that I respect almost more than anybody other than Ken Langone in the world of finance is Jamie Dimon. Because what did Jamie Dimon say? Jamie Dimon said, I'm not going near the ballroom. I'm not going near this or going near that. Because people are going to look at that in one or two years and say, what the hell were you doing? Yes. But those guys needed to do it, I'm telling you, because they were going to get destroyed by Trump. Well, I think it backfired. And I think what we learned over the past two years is that we learned just how spineless America really is.

7:14I mean, watching a lot of these supposedly powerful people who should be empowered to do whatever they want. If you have FU money, you should be saying FU if that's what you believe. You don't get the FU money without being like that that you see you and i are going to be a lot poorer than those people because we're more principled you're not going to get the f you money well unless you act like that that hopeless equivocation and that unbelievable level of ass kissing and that stupid ruthlessness with no moral center you're going to have the money. Let's shift. I don't want the money for that, by the way. Let's talk about the strategy of being spineless as a politician, because as you say, what is J.D. Vance going to do?

7:55What are a lot of these these Republicans who have spent the last two years after they before that said that they were they were never Trumpers and suddenly they fold, they flip. And now what are they supposed to do? Because in my view, I don't think anyone's going to believe them at this point. I don't think they're going to buy it. I think they destroyed their political career. There's going to be a new candidate. See, I believe that. And there's going to be a new candidate for the Republicans that is not even on the radar right now. This guy's going to say, J.D. Vance, no way. Marco Weathervane Rubio, I'm really sorry. A month ago, Pete Hegseth, Katty K, he was saying he was running for president.

8:35You think Pete Hegseth is running for president in 2028? That's going to have to be a clean sweep because it's all on tape. OK, let's bring in our political strategist and forecaster, Craig Kashishian, who has been following the results closely over the last few hours. Craig, it looks like Michigan has gone. Fox News is calling it at the moment. Abdul El-Sayed has been speaking on television. Is that what you would have thought? Is that where I'm a little surprised that the vote perhaps took so long to count in Michigan. But is that where you would expect it to go? I did. Michigan is a bluish state. It's not it's purplish at best. And that's a that's a hole. That's not a pickup. But then again,

9:19you know, we've been running very bad candidates on the Republican side, as you all know, and they paid the price. Now, what has to happen in the future is that the Republicans have to pick somebody outside of the Trump orbit to really reclaim the mantle of greatness. Reagan won. I was with President Reagan. He was my mentor. I was 23 years old working in the White House. That guy was the model of humility. He won 49 states in 1984 with a smile on his face. We need somebody in the Reagan-esque fashion to pick up the baton and run with it. The folks under this Trump administration, they're all tainted now. And I think that they're going to be repudiated if they start to follow their master's lead.

10:13Those days are now gone. They're behind us. Hold tight, Craig. Hopefully, we'll learn. One second. CNN is reporting that Mary Peltola is neck and neck with Dan Sullivan up in Alaska. Alaska, of course, uses ranked choice voting, which means that voters can pick backup options. That means that it could take a little while to sort this out. Decoy Dan, so famous, has one point six percent of the vote. So we may not get the Alaska vote for a while, but it doesn't really matter. They've got a healthy majority in the Senate already. I want to ask you something. I want you to assess for me J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio at this hour. And I want you to say, I want you to give me a scouting report. I want you to put on the general manager

10:56and we're going to start drafting people for two. These are my draft picks for 2028. So tell me what their assets and liabilities are from a polling perspective. Oh, the cigar has come out. Liabilities are enormous. They're enormous. And guess what? They're not going to disappear. Those guys followed the leader. The Trump White House has a problem with arrogance, and they haven't learned to use the word humility in anything. And those guys should have known better, but they didn't. And now the Republican Party has to rebuild from the ground up for a presidential run that could be potentially successful if they pick the right guy. Now Pete Hegseth, I'll be blunt. Let me be really transparent.

11:49They needed to rebuild the military. That should have been their focus. Instead, he's running around doing gymnastics and whatnot. He lost sight of what the U.S. military should be. It's a weapon of war, and you don't use it. You don't deploy it unless the mainland is threatened, and it wasn't. So he deserves a fate of loss, and he's going to get pushed out. He's going to be the sacrificial lamb. So we know that. Rubio is, as you've said, about as reliable as a weather vane in a Miami hurricane. He's going to spin around and around and around. I have no idea where that guy's coming from. I don't like being so blunt with people I've just met, but right now, my gloves are off. Take another puff of that cigar while you're saying this stuff, though.

12:38Please, get the cigar up there. Yeah, I am, and I'm enjoying it. This is a 1988 Sir Winston from my humidor in Alfred Dunhill. You're more than welcome to visit it when you're in London while you're in London now. So here's what has to happen, because they broke my my model of success for Republican presidency. They should have focused on kitchen tabletop issues and nothing else. That's what the American people wanted to hear. And they did not listen to this. Now, we have to rebuild from the ground up. And those guys, those aforementioned guys, they're dead as ducks running. So it's gonna be a fresh face. Hopefully, hopefully a woman, you know, that opens up a whole new corridor for Republican presidential politics.

13:25We'll see. But the rebuilding starts now. But let me offer one caveat. Cady and Anthony, I've been a keen observer of presidential politics for 50 years, since I was a kid. And I started in the White House at 22. For many Scaramucci units, by the way, I was there. So with that said, they need to understand humility, and they need to pick a fresh face. And they have to understand that Americans, hardworking Americans of all classes, of all races, of all religions, just want to be safe in their homes, and they want to be able to improve lives for their children and their grandchildren. That's it. It's a very simple equation. It really, truly is. And we failed on that. And that's why we got the beating we just did. Now the Democrats, if they start going off on a tangent for prosecutions and retributions,

14:30they're going to fall in the same trap that they did before, and they'll lose. They'll lose it again. So what you'll start to see, and this is my prediction moving ahead, lots of volatility moving forward. Presidential elections will be 50 state affairs. I think the Deep South is in play. I don't think Mississippi's on the table. That's just an aberration. So is South Carolina. That was an aberration, too, because the governor, the Republican governor won. But Texas is in play, for sure. I think Florida is creeping up. And the Republicans better wake up quickly before they lose a national mandate. That's my—and I hope you don't mind my elaboration right now. Love it. Craig, keep the gloves off because you need to smoke the cigar,

15:20and smoking gloves don't work. I'm loving the cigar. I have a smoking jacket. I have the whole ensemble. I wish you could sit next time around. Like Scaramucci, I'm a former investment banker. You know, I'll tell you, I'm a capitalist, but I'm not a craven capitalist. And the Republicans had to move from the Wall Street perspective to a Main Street perspective. And they've lost that. They lost that. And they probably got to get out of the Silicon Valley perspective as well. OK, Craig, thank you very much. You're awesome. Joining us. That was super helpful. We back on. OK, enjoy that cigar. I actually can't smoke a cigar. I would love to try because it looks cool, but I don't try. Don't start. It's more expensive than crack. So please stay healthy. Have a glass of champagne.

16:08We're going to be having some champagne tonight. Go to the jungle room. Have fun. Good night, guys. Bye, Craig. Thanks for joining us all night. I just want to say that Katty had this great video. We were touring a few weeks back and she had this great video of Trump getting up there and what was he saying? Vote. Yeah. Vote for me. As if I'm on the ballot. As if I'm on the ballot. Pretend I'm on the ballot. The American people said, OK, that's exactly what we're going to do on Election Day. We're going to vote like you're on the ballot. In fact, they are going to turn out in record numbers to vote as if you are on the ballot. A little few tips that are coming in. The AP voter poll suggests that the big driver was Trump, as we've just been saying, roughly 10 and

16:566 in 10, saying they disapprove of how he's handling the presidency. Up in New Hampshire, where we thought that might be an upset for Democrats. Not the case. Chris Pappas has been elected. He'll be the first openly gay man to serve in the U.S. Senate. I'm actually surprised that he is the first openly gay man. That's surprising. And we've got the first Native American female governor, Deb Haaland, who was, of course, Interior Secretary under Joe Biden, who's been elected in New Mexico. And 40,000 of you are watching us live. So thank you for waking up. We're not counting. Lindsey Graham was an openly gay. No. OK. I'm just asking. So, OK. I mean, not openly. OK. Despite the video that's been circulating.

17:38I'm sorry. I thought he was. OK, we're going to take a quick break and we'll come right back. Welcome back to this live stream of The Rest Is Politics US and the midterm results. It is 7.15 in the morning in the UK. That is 2.15 on the East Coast. And I can't do the maths for anywhere else. We've been talking about who won and why. And now the question for anyone with a pension, with savings or investments. This was the driving factor of this election. It was all about money and how people felt they didn't have enough money in their pockets. So how are businesses and markets going to respond? Ed, this is your world. You live in markets every day. Your friends on Wall Street, what are they going to, are they going to wake up in a panic this morning? Are they going to

18:29wake up and think, okay, well, maybe we've got normal service resumed? What's their reaction going to be? I think we're just looking at some of the pre-trading right now and stock futures are declining. And I think the main concern that a lot of people on Wall Street are going to be panicking about is that the AI trade is going to start to come to a stop. And the reason they're going to be so worried about that is that they're going to believe that because the Democrats have swept, we're going to see a massive crackdown on data center construction. I think one of the more important elections was the gubernatorial election in Texas where, you know, Hosa won that election. And one of her policies is that she wants to have a pause on data centers before we come up with sensible regulation.

19:16A lot of people think that the Democrats are going to be extremely stringent on AI. I think there's what I believe is a false perception about the Democrats that they just want to abolish data centers altogether From what I've seen that's actually not the case What they want is sensible AI regulation, which is something that the American people want at the same time and plus You're not going to get past the local communities Anyway, who are saying that no we're not going to have these data centers built in our communities until we know that we're going to reap some of the rewards. So I think initially there's going to be a panic. They're going to say, oh, my gosh, data centers are being shut down all across the country.

19:53AI is over. And then I think they're going to start to digest and realize, actually, these people are more sensible than we thought. Your Wall Street buddies, Anthony, what are they making of this? Yeah, I think Ed's right. I think there's a lot of Wall Street people that will be muted about Trump but quietly support him. I was actually at a dinner here in London two nights ago where I would say half the people there were cheering on Trump and they think it's wonderful that all this volatility that he's created, they're making money. You saw record profits at some of the very big banks. But I also think it's going to be right that a mixed government, and this is effectively still a mixed government, is much better for the markets long term. And remember, if there's some type of

20:35relief on the tariffs and there's some type of relief on the war, that's going to be hugely positive for Wall Street, usually positive for America. So, again, maybe there's a reset button here. These two years have not gone well for Trump. He said on Fox News tonight, they're the best two years in the history of the American presidency. Let me give everybody a newsflash. OK, you know, they're not they're not the best two years in the American presidency. In fact, they're probably the worst two years of the last 30. And he's also racked up a tremendous amount of deficit spending, which has Wall Street concerned. So so maybe this will be a control mechanism. Is there an argument to be made that we're no longer in a situation where it is as simple as that?

21:18You can say the Republican Party is the pro business party and the Democrats are the regulation party, because actually there are some issues, and AI is one of them, and antitrust issues around big tech, where you've got these weird alliances between people like Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon speaking at the same AI conference. And could it be that actually, you know, J.D. Vance is no friend of big tech in some ways? Yes, he's friends with Peter Thiel, but he's also in favor of a certain amount of regulation and breaking up some of these big tech companies. So could we be in for a period where think just alliances are being made across parties on certain issues that scramble some of the traditional thinking? Yeah, I mean, listen, the answer to that is yes.

22:05But again, not to bore people with economic lesson in history here, but breaking up those companies would be the best thing that we could do for the economy. Yes. And it would unleash an untold amount of innovation. Those companies don't want to get broken up because they have monopoly power, they have pricing power, and they can absorb their competition, which makes it harder for people to grow. But we do know that when we break up monopolies, it unleashes a tremendous amount of technological innovation, and it also creates a flatter system. I don't have the ear of those brologarchs, but I would be saying to the brologarchs, you're worth billions of dollars. Calm down. You can't eat anymore. How many more yachts you're going to water ski behind take a

22:49chill let's help the american people and let's lay lay out a framework of convergence so that the bottom part of the country doesn't feel as left out uh and if we do that you won't have anger-based populism but you'll have pragmatic policy that will be healthy for the country. And so and so that's what has to happen. But but, you know, Katty, they're not going to want to break, break, break, break. I see. I see. Have to be broken up. You need a Teddy Roosevelt who broke up the Rockefeller Trust, who smashed in the J.P. Morgan, who who punched at the railroad trust and said enough. And of course, just to remind people, where was the Volstead Act? Well, that was also under Teddy Roosevelt, where he said, we're going to take the money out of the political system.

23:35And of course, Citizens United in January of 2010 repealed the Volstead Act. And we need to get rid of that as well. And if Elon is listening is listening dude 500 million i mean i know it's a drop in the bucket for you but that was a ridiculous number to spend to get absolutely nothing out of it and i think there's another big message there i don't think the american people want billionaires pushing their weight around on the scales of the political system and so that's something that also has to i think james talarico picked that up really well when he made that closing argument about Texas is not for sale and pinning this on Elon. And if he'd lost if Tallarico had lost Texas, you would have seen other multibillionaires around the country thinking, OK, I can buy up states as I need to.

24:20And I think this is a repudiation, I hope, and a check to other multi billionaires to think, is it worth me spending so much money to try and buy up the states? But that point about the K shaped economy and the growth of income inequality in the country, I mean, it's this we have the markets booming. We have the as you're saying, you've got fears from people, you know, in Wall Street saying this is going to be a check on the AI boom and the billionaires are not going to get even bigger billionaires. But actually, that is what's behind this election result. This has there has to be a halt to this. There has to be some kind of realization that the country can't keep having a system where some people are becoming trillionaires while others can't make rent.

25:02And the arrogance of data centers was really the culmination of that, right? There was not even trying to talk to the American people about why a data center was there. All of a sudden, it just shows up. The shock. Oh, they don't like this? And it makes noise. And your utility just bill went up. And you have to deal with that. I mean, the arrogance of that moment. Now, that's in juxtaposition that on January 2027, all of a sudden, Trump's big, beautiful bill is going to be implemented where Medicaid policy, health care people are going to start to lose it. SNAP benefits are going to get harder, which is food assistance is going to get harder. And I think the first call to action will be what are Republicans going to do about that moment?

25:45What are Democrats going to do to make sure people have health care, food and housing? And so this train is coming at them very quickly starting January 20, 27. So I'm very curious what people are going to do about what was called the big, beautiful bill and how beautiful it looks when people wake up tomorrow morning, when people wake up on January. OK, before we get to our next guest, let's take a quick look at what we know so far. The GOP is reeling from a blue tsunami with the Democrats picking up seven Senate seats for a strong majority of 53 to 42, soon to be called Michigan, which could make it 54. And even ruby red Mississippi looks like it's in play. Could we be getting to 55 for the Democrats in the Senate? In the House, the Democrats also have

26:31the majority picking up 27 seats for a total of 227. They needed 218 to win. So at the moment, they've only got a majority of nine in the House, but some seats still to be called 134 for the Republicans. Let's go to former Trump adviser Brian Lanza to talk about what the president's first moves could be after this election. Brian, well, good to see you. You and I spoke just a week ago. You you told me this was going to happen. You told me it was going to be a bad night for Republicans. Did you expect it to be quite this bad a night? No, I never thought we would lose South Carolina, but I guess that's what happens when a wave hits. It means, you know, all these marginal races are all these tight races, you know, just,

27:16you know, they just get overtaken. And that's what happened. What surprised you in particular? Which races, which demographic groups, which which shifts have surprised you in particular? Which races, which demographic groups, which shifts have surprised you in particular? Yeah, I think the two big things that surprised me, you know, before we get to the candidates is the policy areas where, you know, Democrats are now more popular in immigration than President Trump and the national debt. Those are two issues that Trump had dominated for a long time. And those are two issues that, at least what we saw from the exit polls, that he has lost significant support. He's underwater. And I think that's the two biggest things that surprised me.

27:56As for the races, you know, I mean, like I said, South Carolina was a shocker to me. The fact that Mississippi is where it is tonight, I think it's, what, 27 votes? You know, that's another shocker to me the fact that you know Mississippi is where it is tonight I think it's what 27 votes you know that's another shocker but yeah listen I expected it to be a tough election year the day at the day after Trump won his second presidential race I just didn't expect it to be this bad so Donald Trump's already been on Fox News saying this is not his fault it's not a repudiation of him he was not on ballot. What do you think he's actually feeling and thinking tonight? Listen, he hates losing. And I think any way you look at it, he's the leader of the Republican Party.

28:34And he's just now lost the Senate. He's lost the House. I think he looks at it very frustrated. From what I hear, the next two years are going to be more challenging than ever. It's going to be it's not going to say it'll be stalemates. I think it's going to see more executive action out of the administration, more inner policy work. But I'm sure he I'm sure with the results this morning, he's frustrated, very frustrated. Brian, you and I have worked together. I think you put me on the air more than anybody okay so i don't know if i should thank you for that or choke you i'm not exactly sure but but i want i thought i put you on the air but he predates you i never let you get off the air no he predates you this is when you told

29:18me it was one hour a week and that meant one hour one hour off a week. But Mr. Lanz, I've got to ask you this question because you know I talk to all these MAGA people and there's three or four people coming in on my text messaging saying that the knives are out. And I say, well, the knives are out for who? The knives out? Are the knives out for Trump and MAGA? And by the way, you're not on CNN. Hold on. Let me stop you. You're not on CNN. Unplug a a little let the gas out a little bit don't be all you know with the blockiness you know just tell us the truth are the knives out for Trump by whom right like I think that becomes a question there's there's whether the knives are out for him or not I think the knives are out for every

30:03American president you know we are in the partisanship of politics today that the knives are ever out But you know, where does it matter for Trump? I think if the knives were out for Trump, you know You're talking impeachment and I don't think that's on anybody's on anybody's mind right now. It's really not on the Democrats So do I think the knives are out internally in staffing? Of course. Listen, politics is a tough sport. There are sharp elbows at every turn. I think everybody knows, at the end of the day, whether it's Trump, whether it's Obama, whether it's Bill Clinton, you still have to put some points on the board. I mean, Bill Clinton fired his political leadership when he lost the midterms.

30:39Like, these things happen, and he'll make adjustments. But sure, the knives are out among the staff. CNN is just CNN is just called Michigan for El Saad, by the way. It looks like it's like 52, 46. So that's another state that has gone held by the Democrats, but it gives them an even bigger majority. Can I ask that question, though, of Antony's? Can I phrase it another way? Are the knives out for the president within the Republican Party? Are we going to start to see more Republicans distance themselves from Donald Trump publicly? Because we know they've been doing it in private. But are we going to start seeing them do it publicly? I think what the Republicans are ultimately going to do is they're going to sit down and say, what do we need to do to win in 2028?

31:21Right. And if they've made all of them, you know, if they've made the decision that knifing their leader or their former leader, thinking about the past, working about the past, and not sort of working about the future, yeah, that becomes challenging. I think that's a waste of time. I think what the best things about elections is the very next day you focus on the next election. But guess what? The next election doesn't have Donald Trump on the ballot. The next election is a contrast election. It's a contrast election normally between Republican policies and Democratic policies. And I'll take that bet any day, especially with the emergence of a Democratic Socialist Party. OK, we've got Ed Elson with us, Brian.

32:00Hi, Brian. What do you think is the right move for the Republican Party? I mean, if you're trying to make a run in 2028, should you be denouncing the president? I mean, we can ask the question of will it happen? Is that actually going to be what a lot of these Republicans do? Mooch seems to believe that DeSantis might do that. What I'm trying to figure out is what is actually the correct decision? Is this the moment where you say, okay, MAGA, this is the end of MAGA, MAGA is behind us, I denounce it? Or do you say, I ignore it, I kind of pretend it didn't really exist? Or do you continue to embrace it? What do you think is actually the correct decision? I mean, it's not the end of MAGA. You know, MAGA is a particular thread of the Republican Party, just like the Tea Party is a particular

32:48thread of the Republican Party, just like socialism is a particular thread of the Democratic Party. I mean, nobody has to denounce MAGA. I think the viewpoint or setting of viewers that something needs to be denounced by MAGA is an unreasonable expectation. There's nothing that needs to be denounced. Let's look at what MAGA has done, and then they'll list their crowning achievements there. But I think if I'm J.D., and for the record, I worked for him. I was a consultant to his super PAC when he ran for U.S. Senate and won. But if I'm J.D., I have to have the conversation with the president. It's like, ultimately, what do you want, Mr. President? Do you want to make sure that a Republican candidate wins and can continue the legacy, can protect, you can do all these things?

33:32Or do you want to have the Democrats come in here and undo everything like you did to President Obama? And I think if you have the president on your same page, I think there are fixes. I think Anthony talked about it pretty easily tariffs that's something he has absolute control over he can do with an executive order overnight and then the war in the much more complicated issues gonna be the war with iran but i think if you take those two issues and what can be done executive order overnight i i i think you you see the republicans in a strong position again let's remember the presidential elections are contrast elections. Right now, the front runner for the Democratic Party is Kamala Harris.

34:11I'll take that bet. So, Brian, I have a question for you. Trump is known for the loyalists around him. How does he wake up tomorrow morning with those loyalists around him and thinking about how to move forward? What do you think happens to Pete or, you know, all those he brought around him in this moment? You know, listen, I think, you know, the Trump that I know will assess what took place and try to figure out, you know, what the fix is, at least from a narrative standpoint. Right. And so, you know, I think the question becomes, as everybody's knifing each other right now, who sort of stepped forward and says, you know, this is the person that needs to go, right? Is it Hexeth, who's calling Marsha Blackburn

34:56to see if he can be appointed to the U.S. Senate and say, hey, I'll be the collateral damage that leaves here? You know, is it, you know, Howard Letnick, right? You know, if we're right you know if we're dealing with if we're gonna have more and more conversations and investigations of corruption does it make sense you know for Howard to go which is somebody who the Democrats have targeted and said they're gonna be investigated I think Trump is is gonna look and say listen my policies at the end of the day are still popular deporting illegal criminal aliens is still a popular position deporting illegal criminal aliens is still a popular position. Deporting illegal aliens is still a very popular position. The implementation

35:30went sideways, right? I think what I had read in some of the media reports, and it was a tough statement to respond to, is Obama deported more and killed less. That has to change, right? And so I think there are components there that that you could see a quick turnaround But I think the the challenge Yeah, listen there. There are several challenges, but I think the quick thing you can work forward with with MAGA and how it's integrated now this Sort of you know presidential elections are a reflection of that current president And so I don't think the voters want that same harsh tone that you saw, you know, out of President Trump. I'm hoping they're looking for a change. And I think the Republican and the

36:09Democrat to sort of step up to that will likely be rewarded. OK, Brian Lanza, thank you, Brian, for staying up late for us. Good to see you. Good to see you. I'm glad you got your ass kicked tonight. I do love you. Listen, but I kicked. I look forward to kicking you in the socialist ass in two years from now, so don't worry about it. Guys, guys, guys. I'm trying to get the Republican Party back. You're hanging out with socialists these days, Anthony. I get it. Well, I'm just trying to hang out with reform-based people that want to kick Trump's ass. Who's taking stakes in companies? You know you're my favorite MAGA person, Brian. Yeah. All right. You're the first person to ever call me MAGA.

36:48All right. Well, you know, you are. And I know you are. But I love you. All right. All right. OK. As we have heard the news of Al-Sayed's win. Let's take a quick look at what he's just said in his victory speech. Habibi. I want you to let them know. Let them know that we together fighting for something bigger. We won. So Mike, enjoy your retirement. I know you got a house in Florida and two yachts. See you chose hate and Michigan chose hope. May we never have to see the likes of you in the state again. Okay, so we've been speaking a lot about the Republican Party, but Amanda, we should talk about the future of the Democrats. I have had Democrats say to me, Democratic strategists say to me that the Democrats would not have been heartbroken

37:47if El-Sayed had not won Michigan, that they are aware that they're going to have a 12 seat, very progressive caucus in the House of Representatives and having another very progressive senator was going to make life difficult for the top of the Democratic Party. I'm not saying whether that's right or wrong. It's just what I had heard and that they would have been quite happy picking up five other Senate seats and leaving Al-Sayed up in Michigan and not winning that seat, not keeping that seat. Does a civil war now break out in the Democratic Party between the centrists and the progressives? I mean, you've got a very different coalition. You've got Abdul Al-Sayed up in Michigan. You've got Adam Hamilton in Kansas, who only became a Democrat

38:29this spring, who is very much calls himself a conservative Democrat. How do these two factions work together in the Senate to get things done and also find a way to take the direction of the party into 2028 and find some kind of leader who is going to keep both sides of the party in the tent. Stay on economic mobility. The answer to this story is economic opportunity. No matter who you're talking to, what area you're in, conservative or progressive, everybody has in this election cycle talked about economic opportunity. Now deliver on that. And if Democrats can stay focused on that, they've got it. Whether or not you're talking about who won in Michigan or who won in California, that is a central issue. And Democrats know what it's like to lose a

39:19coalition. Everybody remembers the feeling of when all of a sudden trump and the republican party had the coalition of working class that democrats had a pride in building for a long time and so what i hope to see is that the progressive versus conservative coalition or the continuum changes and it's a whole different story because right now we've got a coalition that is rural and urban I mean even the farmers came around to Democrats this cycle and so I'm hopeful they rejected Trump the cycle I don't know they came around to Democrats you're right fair point they didn't come around but now is our chance now is a Democrat chance to do it and we've got a whole heck of a lot of young people that I do think you are seeing not just a new coalition, but you're

40:11seeing a change from the old to the new to a younger generation now. That is very different. I'll also say that we have a generation of young people who are now governing. So when you think about what Mbani has done in New York, it's not just young people protesting that maybe some folks in establishment, Democrats were upset about before. But now you actually have governors who are gonna be in place, who are now gonna have to put policies in place. And so there's a pragmatism that happens when a young generation now leads in a way that you've got to deliver on results too. I think that is gonna help this coalition put it together. But I agree it's going to be awkward at first. And I think there

40:49needs to be some quick wins around making sure that you deliver on some affordability. The more quick wins that can bring the entire coalition together, the better. And maybe even bring in a few Republicans, too. Ed, what do you think happens to the party? I think that El-Sayed has been incredibly impressive. And you know, looking at that video, looking at him speak, he actually reminds me of Obama in a lot of ways. He is actually projecting a level of strength and energy into the party that is making a lot of people very nervous about the future of the party, which I can understand. But I also think that that comes with the territory here. We are at a very important moment in American politics. And, you know, we talked about what is the path going to look like

41:36for the Democrats. And I think it would maybe Craig, one of the guests, suggested that the Democrats should not take the path of prosecution and retribution against Trump. I actually disagree with that position. I think a lot of Americans are going to disagree as well. I think you need to be extremely resolute, extremely strong in rebuking Trump, rebuking cruelty, rebuking corruption and criminality. It means that you need someone who's going to be very strong on this. I look at El-Sayed and I think the guy's actually been mischaracterized in a lot of ways He has been associated with the Democratic Socialists of America party, but he said over and over again. I'm not a socialist I am a capitalist and I believe him and by the way

42:18I was very worried about Mamdani when when when he was coming up in New York I was thinking oh my gosh, this guy's gonna be a crazy socialist. What did he do? He cracked down on crime. We've had the lowest number of murders in NYPD history in New York. He deregulated small businesses. He increased the housing supply. He's done a lot of very sensible things. Clean the streets. I think we're going to see something. Clean the streets of New York. Everyone's very happy in New York. I think we're going to see something very similar. I think it's actually a positive sign that people are anxious about this guy. I think he's going to show up and hopefully do a lot of good. Well, I think he's going to be reaching out to other people to build a coalition to get

42:53things done, because that was something that he struggled with in the election campaign in Michigan. When he gets into the Senate to be an effective senator, you can't do it. You're not one person. It's one out of 100. He needs others with him and he's going to have to reach out. I think he's going to do it. I think he's going to get it done. I was going to say you've picked two incredible, in-depth, analytical guests. Can we go back to my shallowness for just a few minutes? I know the show's almost over. I want to get very shallow? I am so happy. You guys have no idea. But I just have to say that Abdul El-Sayed said earlier tonight, and I'm going to read it, J.D. Habibi. Do you love that? I love that. J.D. Habibi. Okay, there is a delicious irony,

43:41in fact, that you're constitutionally obligated to swear me in in January. And I love that. OK because J.D. Vance was calling the guy a jihadist. Yes. And they were running. He's going to have to go through a metal detector. That he's linked to terrorism and he's going to have to go through a metal detector when he enters the Congress. But J.D. Habibi you're going to be swearing the guy in. OK. And I think there's such a delicious irony. These two erstwhile guests are analytical and they're deep and they've come out with some great ideas for the future of America. But this shallowness is something I'm living for right now, at this moment in time in American history. It's so shallow that it's deep.

44:29I think there's something about the fact that you are rooting out cruelty and you're doing it with some joy to say, look forward, look in you right in the eye. I mean, that is probably got a Taylor Swift song to go with it. OK, Barack Obama's just tweeted out tonight. The American people sent a clear message. They want a politics that brings people together rather than divides them and leaders who offer concrete solutions to the challenges that they face. OK, don't forget to keep your questions coming in the comments. We're going to be answering those shortly. Let's have a quick look at where we stand as well with the Democrats having taken the Senate and the House. We're going to take a break and then come straight back.

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47:50See how Clawed works at clawed.ai. Welcome back. It is quarter to eight in the morning, London time. Definitely time for another cup of coffee. The GOP is reeling from a blue tsunami with the Democrats picking up eight Senate seats for a strong majority of 54. This is beyond their wildest dreams. The Republicans back on 42. Alaska is still to be called and the traditionally red state of Mississippi is also still in play. In the House, meanwhile, the Democrats also have the majority. They are at 227 seats with 135 seats for the GOP. They just needed 218. I mean, in a way, for me, it is the Senate that is the shocker over the House. They've got the House, but they've got the Senate by way more than we might have

48:46expected. Let's take a look at some of your questions that you've been sending in. We've loved getting your questions during the course of this evening. How about this one? Let's take this question that is just coming up. Let's hope that it's just good. What does this, here we go, it's coming into me. What does this blue tsunami actually change? That is a good question. Amanda, what does a blue tsunami actually change for people? That they're going to have government deliver for them. I think the people have spoken. What I love about midterms is it's not about, it's actually not about any one candidate or any one state. It's an election across the country in every state, in every district to determine what Congress looks like.

49:28And that, for me, is what really is the message, is that the people have spoken. The young generation has spoken and they're going to get some answers now. Anthony, what do you think it changes? Unfortunately, I think it will change a little bit of what Amanda is saying. I do agree with her, but I just think it's going to be hard because they don't have a 60 in the Senate. They've got a lot to do. There'll be bicameral investigations, of course. A lot of Trump's cronies will get punished. I think they'll be able to slow down things that Trump is doing. I think those things are positive. But I'm just worried, Katty, that I'm worried that the message that the American people are telling them is we want to throw the bums out.

50:15It's an anti-incumbency message. I'm just worried they're not hearing something else. I hope that they're not hearing, hey, the Americans are embracing our party. I don't think they are. I think the Americans are embracing change and they want a moderate sort of healing unification to the system. I think that's the real message. And I hope I hope the Democrats take that right into the into the Senate and into the House in January. You know, Al Sayed in his victory speech, he did say that the president's having a hard time pronouncing his name. So after J.D. swears him in, he can just call him senator. Love this guy. I love this guy. I mean, it's that the the energy in the Democratic Party is with I mean, it is with people with like like Al-Said because he gets all of the attention because he's mastered the communications medium that you have to be able to master because he's so good at it.

51:14And because he's out front and because he says things like this and says, you know, I'm going to love the fact that J.D. Vance has to swear me in. But we should remember, it is also people like Adam Hamilton who have won in Kansas. It is people like Sherrod Brown who have won in Ohio, who have also given the Democrats and people like James Tallarico, very different style, who have won down in Texas. They are not the firebrands that El Sayed is. So does the direction of the party now go in the direction of the firebrands because they have the megaphone and they use it in a particular way? Or does it stay with? I don't see James Tallarico speaking the same way that El Sayed is doing. And yet he's actually

51:55probably just as much of an economic progressive. Well, that actually excites me because to me, I can see a future where you have a coalition of a lot of very different types of people, a lot of very different types of talent coming together. And finally, we have some A players here. I mean, this is like for the English listeners, you've got your Cole Palmer and your Morgan Rogers here and your João Pedro. This is like a real bench of talent. He'll do the basketball references. This is a real bench of talent. Exactly. He'll do the basketball references. This is a real talent bench. And so what I would love to see is some collaboration from these people and for them to actually work together and show,

52:34OK, we can actually use our strengths to our advantage. Hamilton is a very, very different candidate from El-Sayed. And to me, that's a very good thing. That's very exciting that we have that talent. So in terms of the question, you know, what will this actually change? I think the jury's still out. I don't think that we should expect that things are going to automatically change. I think that we should actually really, you know, have high. I mean, we should expect a lot from the Democrats at this point. But, you know, it's never a guarantee. So I think that it's now on the Democrats to show us, OK, now that you have some more power, now can you get something done? But we shouldn't necessarily assume that that's going to happen. All this is to me is a condemnation of the president, which in itself is satisfying.

53:17That is the big takeaway. OK, what do the results mean for foreign policy? Will Trump now rush to end the Iran war? This is from Joe. We haven't spoken that much about foreign policy, although I have to say that my text messages are from people from all over the world who are texting me saying, wow, this is an amazing night. Maybe we can rethink what we've been thinking about America. It is no secret that America's reputation in the world had gone down the toilet under the last under Trump over the last year and a half. And there will be a lot of people hoping that this might mean things like Iran get addressed differently, things like Ukraine. There's a question in the text chat on YouTube saying, I'd love to know what's going on in the Kremlin right now.

54:02How much of a difference do you think this makes, Antony, in terms of foreign policy, particularly on the issue, I guess, of Iran and Ukraine, those two big wars that we were talking about earlier today? I think the senator that we had on earlier tonight, Chris Coons, answered it better than I can answer it. They're going to slow down funding for that war. They're going to curtail him. They're going to amp up the funding for things in Ukraine. They're going to curtail him. They're going to amp up the funding for things in Ukraine. They're going to push the envelope with the agency and the Pentagon as it relates to Ukraine. I think Hegseth is toast. And I think whoever replaces Hegseth will be a little bit more normal caddy.

54:37So that'll probably help on the margin of our foreign policy. But I do think that the brand, the American brand, which needs a refurbishing, this was a step forward and a step positive. I think it sent a message to global citizens that the Americans know what's up with Trumpism and MAGA, and they're trying to kill it off. We're going to have two more years of nonsense from Donald Trump, but I don't think it's going to be as bad as the first few years. But before we say anything else, I just want to say something to El-Sayed. He's got to he's got to apologize to the Sky News journalist, because I don't know if you guys saw that. There is a streak to El-Sayed. When I was up there following him in Michigan, there is a streak to him.

55:18And people up there in Michigan will say he's arrogant. Yeah. And he has to be careful about that because he's not he's one senator. Yeah. And he has to work with the other senators. All the guy was doing. And this is this thing, you know, you hate Trump for berating the journalists. And Trump is obviously a horrific person for berating the journalists. And one of these journalists someday should say, hey, man, excuse me, you're working for me. I'm not working for you. Settle down, little boy. OK, but they won't do that because of the quorum and the protocol in the White House. But I'm just saying what's soon to be Senator Al-Sayed. Pick up the phone and call the Sky News journalist and apologize to him.

55:53It was inappropriate the way you handled yourself. And if you don't know what he did, you basically say, hey, I'm not getting any votes in the UK. And he sort of blew off the guy because he didn't like the question. And then you're becoming like Trump. OK, so don't do that. That would be a big message from somebody like me. Yeah, I generally this has been an amazing night, Katty. I'm loving this night, Katty. This is like the best night of the rest of politics U.S. for me. Can I ask a question? I feel like we're going to be talking about this night for quite some time. I agree. November 4th, January 6th, my birthday was Insurrection Day. This is Liberation Day. Go ahead, Ed Elson. I'm sorry.

56:31My question, and maybe you know because you know Trump best probably at this table. Brian seemed to suggest that we're going to see some reversals, that we're going to pull back on the tariffs, that we're going to get out of Iran. Is Trump going to reverse or is he going to double down? That to me, those are the two parts that he has at his disposal. From what I understand about this guy, he only doubles down. He never admits defeat. And if he doesn't even double down on those issues, could he double down on other issues? Right. I mean, is he going to need some kind of a distraction? You've been saying this for a while now, Anthony, that this could be two crazy years, because if he suffers a defeat like he has done tonight, what does he do to try and get attention on himself, to. But he's also not blaming the defeat on himself. He congratulated Democrats. If I was on the ballot, it would have been a landslide or blah, blah. And I'm just wondering

57:30if there's a powder like he's going to take the powder, meaning, all right, I'm done. Throw the towel into the rink. Go play golf. Call his buddies in the Middle East. See if you can grip a few more billion from them and do some favors for them while he's grifting from them, that sort of thing. That could also be a permutation out permutation, an outcome of this whole thing. Or is he mad at Republicans right now? And so came out and said, all right, Democrats, I'm ready to work with you. I mean, I'm super I mean, again, you know, I'm best in the volatility here. But saying it's going to saying, let's go, let's figure out how to work together and even have some Democrat friends was interesting to me tonight.

58:11One of the things I did say to Katty, and Katty can verify this, I said the MAGA PAC money that he raised, he will not spend a dollar, not one dollar on these people. Did he spend any money on these people, Katty? No. I mean, he's going to hope that Don Jr. runs in 2028 and then he can spend it on another people. Do you spend any money on these people, Katty? No. I mean, he's going to hope that Don Jr. runs in 2028 and then he can spend it on another Trump. OK, last question that we're going to take this evening. Will this outcome heal the U.S. image around the world? We have to end the show, Katty. This is from Tom Carnes. Tom, yes, to some extent, but this is not going to be the moment where Joe Biden was elected in 2024

58:46and came to the G7 summit down in Cornwall and said, America is back. People are going to be relieved. They are relieved. I'm seeing it, all the comments coming in from around the world. They're relieved at the way tonight went. They're relieved to have a check put on President Trump. But they still know that alliances have been irreparably harmed during the course of the last year and a half. USAID has been decimated around the world. That has done untold damage to America's reputation. It's handed China and Russia something on a plate, some soft power on a plate that didn't need to happen. So damage has been done that isn't going to be repaired just by the fact that we've had a good night for the

59:28Democrats during the course of these midterms. But it's better for many around the world when they look at America than if there had been a great night for Republicans and another re-endorsement of MAGA, which would have made people think we are in for now, not just another two years, but potentially another two years and then another eight years of MAGA. I do think that's different. But a lot of damage has been done already, right, Ed? I mean, you must hear this all the time from your friends here in the UK. 100 percent. I mean, for the first time ever, China is more popular among the global population than America. There is no brand that has suffered more damage, that has taken more of a hit

1:00:06in the past five years than brand USA. It has been stunning. And by the way, it's not just outside of America, it's also within the country as well. US pride has hit all time lows. So this to me is an important moment because it's taking a step forward. But to Cady's point, we just took 50 steps backward. So we've got another 49 steps to go. It's going to be a very, very long road to repair these relationships. But this is a great sign. This is a great sign that maybe we'll get back there. Maybe we'll be seen as a great country once again, as a trusted trade partner. But it's going to be a long while. OK, we asked all of you this question as well. Will tonight's results improve the image of the US around the world? You're all optimists.

1:00:48We love you. 72% of you say yes. 28% of you say no. I am going with the yes, but don't underestimate both in practical terms and in brand terms, some of the damage that has been done over the last year and a half and the way in which, to some extent, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have been the big winners of the chaos that has been taking place in the town that I live in over the last year and a half. Right, Anthony? I mean, where have they enjoyed this more than anywhere else? Yeah, well, in Washington, for sure, the State Department, the Civil Service, all these people are breathing a sigh of relief that America probably is coming to its senses. But he's also on Fox News right now. Again, Caddy lashing out again. And so it's what time is it now?

1:01:38It's 3 a.m. and he's tuned in and he's calling into Fox News. So God only knows, you know, he's going to go through a lot of different moods. A lot of different emotions. And we'll see which one he ends up on. My prediction, I think he's going to double down. I think he's going to say he seems to be in a world of delusion right now. This has nothing to do with me. He learned all of his lessons from Roy Cohn, never admit defeat. I think he doubles down and ultimately self-destructs over the next two years in spectacular fashion. You know, I'm just wondering if Jared's going to call him. This would be Jared Kusher saying, hey, man, I need the pardon before the investigation comes. So I'm going to close by giving you this. This is from James Tallarico. I know. I know.

1:02:22What are you going to say? We didn't win by alienating our neighbours or by shaming our neighbours or by ridiculing our neighbours. We embodied a new kind of politics, a politics rooted in a deep love for our state, for our country and for all of our neighbours. My faith teaches me that love is the strongest force in the universe. Love is not passive. Love is not neutral. Love is not weak. Love requires that we stand between the bullies and the universe. Love is not passive. Love is not neutral. Love is not weak. Love requires that we stand between the bullies and the bullied. Love requires that we look evil in the eye and not blink. Love can heal what's broken in America. That is the kind of sentiment. And that is

1:02:57literally from St. Paul, his great letter to the Corinthians. He more or less paraphrased that. And I give the kid a lot of credit. He's a great messenger. And you could be looking at a potential future president. Who knows? He's only 37 years old. But to win the state of Texas and to purple that state as a senator is truly an incredible story. My hat's off to him. Thank you all so much for joining us this evening. Let's take one last look at the final results. Election night has turned into a rout for the GOP. Democrats hold the Senate 54 to 43 after flipping eight seats, with Alaska undecided still, and the traditional Republican stronghold of Mississippi suddenly competitive as well. In the the house Democrats also hold a clear majority

1:03:48leading 227 to 135 Anthony and I will be back later this week to analyze more of these results as they keep coming in keep letting us know your thoughts in the comments we'll see you all soon thanks so much for joining us Thank You Ed Thank You Amanda we will see you later in the week. We'll see you all soon. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you, Ed. Thank you, Amanda. We will see you later in the week. Thanks so much for joining us. I'm so happy right now. So happy. Pop that champagne, get your cigar, take your gloves off. Have a good night. Drink your coffee. See you all soon. Now for a quick message from Anthropic, the team behind Claude, the AI built for businesses. Every business wants to move faster. Few can afford to be wrong. That's why nine Fortune 10

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