234. Trump’s Texas Panic: The Last Minute Scramble

0:00Hello, everybody. Welcome to The Rest Is Politics US. We are exactly one week out from midterm elections and we've decided to do this live stream and we'll be doing them again tomorrow and again on Friday. And then, of course, you won't be able to get rid of us all of next week either. But thank you very much for joining us. Okay, so let's jump into Texas politics because in a last minute scramble to secure a Republican win in Texas, Donald Trump has flown down there. He did two rallies there yesterday, one in Corpus Christi and one in deep red Lubbock, Texas to rescue his candidate, Ken Paxton's Senate bid. He's got some reason to panic because just a few miles away and one hour later, James Tallarico, the Democratic candidate,

0:53held his own rally attacking Trump's corrupt tariffs, his corrupt war, and his corrupt division of America. And by the way, taking on one Elon Musk. So let's dive in. This episode is brought to you by eToro. A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change. It can all start just as the first line of a speech, but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come. That's right, Katty. Markets move on expectations, not just events. Investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for company sectors and the wider economy. So eToro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them.

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3:13You get it all in the FT. It's a very objective paper, and it's lots of fun to read, and it makes you smarter. I also loved Janine Ganesh's opinion piece on why must a socialist always be woke? And he's making the point that the socialists in America have compelling economic policies, but cultural policies that many people in the country hate. Is there a lane for somebody who is a more culturally moderate socialist? I love the FT weekend. My very favorite thing to read on a Saturday morning. No, I love the FT. I'm just thrilled that they're a sponsor. For the Y, Financial Times. Listeners of The Rest Is Politics US can save over 40% on an annual digital subscription to the Financial Times by visiting ft.com slash tripus.

3:58That's ft.com slash tripus, T-R-I-P-U-S, subject to terms and conditions. Offer expires October 28th. Anthony, I have spent the last couple of hours while I was walking my dog, Charlie, listening to Donald Trump's speech and to James Tallarico's speech. It was pretty surreal because they were literally three hours apart in Lubbock. You needed a couple of hours because James Tallarico's speech was a tight 28 minutes or something. Donald Trump's speech was a not tight hour and a half that he was up on stage for, so you needed that amount of time. It felt like there was energy on both sides. They both got about 4,000 people. But as Tallarico pointed out, they were in an area of the state that Donald Trump had won handily three times.

4:51So you might have expected more conservatives to turn out than Democrats. I know you and I have been backwards and forwards on Tallarico's chances and the Democrats' chances in Texas. What are you thinking right now? I'm thinking Ken Paxton is doing a lot of squats right now. I don't think his ass is muscular enough for Donald Trump. And so he's in the gym right now, somewhere in Dallas doing some squats. He didn't get the muscle praise. No, I mean, he basically got told he was ugly by Trump. I don't know how the president thinks this stuff is helping these candidates, but it's definitely entertaining. But, you know, listen, I mean, it's a toss up caddy. I don't love the five to six point lead that Tallarico has.

5:37If it was another state, I'd be like, yeah, he's outside the margin of error. Narrowly, he's likely going to win. But you saw this race with Netanyahu last night. You saw the situation in Brazil. These things go freaky deke at the last minute. And so I don't love where Tallarico is right now. Up 10, I'd be super happy. But where he is right now, no. Yeah, and actually there's a i think a poll just came out that shows it 48 talarico paxton 46 and two is definitely within the margin of error if you're saying and we said this on the show this week the trouble with all of these red states is that you are asking people to change a habit yes he managed to get 40 000 people out and as he had quite a good line he said that's a lot of talafricos turning Donald Trump's attack on him back on himself. I thought that was pretty good.

6:29He should be using that more. So he got 4,000 people to turn out to see him in Lubbock. But you're still asking people to break potentially the habit of a lifetime. The one thing I would look at in Texas is the Latino vote. We know that the Latino vote in this midterm election is the biggest swing vote. If you look at the numbers of how Latinos have shifted from 2024, when they helped drive Donald Trump over the line to where they stand today, it's the single biggest double digit drop of any of the groups that are voting much bigger change than white voters old voters young voters i mean hands down the the cratering of the republicans lead with latino voters obviously has an impact in a state like texas right because

7:19you've got a latino big latino population i listened to tallarica i thought he was good anthony i didn't think you're a comms person he wasn't amazing he wasn't he didn't have the crazy he's low-key he's not barack obama he is a milk toast well messengered guy uh you are more polite than me. He doesn't have charisma. He's not grabbing people and pulling them into the speech. He's like, here's my message. It's a Christian message. I really hate meat, but I'm going to eat it because I live here in Texas. I'm not an asshole like Ken Paxton and Donald Trump. And I also think that your kids need a fair shake in our society. That's the message, but it's not a punchy message. But listen, here's what I don't like. And again,

8:14I want to be wrong. Please understand, I want these guys and I want MAGA demolished, and I want a metaphorical steamroller just smashing into Trump and Paxson. But the Democrats have been two points away in Texas since 1988. Last Democratic senator, Lloyd Benson. And I'm worried because you've got the Houston poll has Democrats narrowly ahead, and that's not enough in a state like Texas. And generally those state polls are generally better at modeling the electorate right than the national polls they are but you know the cost of living question Tallarico's plus 19 on that so that makes you think maybe someone goes into the poll believe who closes the curtain and says I need money and I got to make money. And these guys, these

9:06Republicans aren't working for me. But, you know, you know, Katty, this is the last point I want to make on this. Four hundred and ninety point four million dollars, Katty. I mean, you got to think about, you know, we could have built 10 schools in Texas. We could have brought in, I don't know, 10,000 teachers. It's 490.4 million and they're still dumping money. Listen, we've talked about the expenses of the Iranian war, the energy prices, the inflation, the interest rates going up, this could have been a $100, $200 million race in its entirety, and maybe $100 or so for the Republicans if they just stuck with Cornyn. Yeah, they didn't need to spend that money. I mean, one of the best lines that Tallarico had

9:59last night, and I've heard him repeating this, actually is about, I mean, he's kind of wonky. Tallarico, I quite like it. He gets into all sort of wonky stuff that Texas needs. But in a way, the bit where he has the crowd the most engaged is when he calls out Elon Musk. And he says, do you know who put those ads up about me that are lying? It was Elon. Do you know who spent millions of dollars on ads? It was Elon. He doesn't even come from Texas. He's not born and bred here, but he is having an outside impact on this campaign. Elon Musk has spent, and it's worth getting these numbers wrapped around your head, Elon Musk has spent $560 million during the course of these midterms. That's astonishing in itself. What's the number in Texas?

10:42$180 million he's dropped, which is a pocket change to Elon Musk, $180 million. And now I think what's clever about what Tallarico is doing it, I think some of this might be breaking through because he then closes this whole thing about, do you know who spent so much money? It's Elon with, well, we have a message for Elon, Texas is not for sale. A better politician would have the whole crowd in the way that Abdul El-Sayed, who I saw up in Michigan, had it, like the whole crowd chanting back at him. He doesn't do that. But it's a good line. Texas is not for sale. And I think it gets to something that Democrats tell me they're seeing in these closing weeks, and that is that people don't like the corruption. And this ties in with some of the

11:26stuff you've spoken about, Anthony, I think. It ties in with this idea that a whole load of people are making a whole load of money. It just reminds everybody that Elon Musk has $180 million to drop on an election campaign. But here's the thing, Katty. Elon, you tell me you're going to spend $500 million on this stuff. Now, I know he's made a lot of money and his net worth has gone up $500 billion since Trump became president. I get all that, but you don't want to have any balance in your personality? What happens when the Democrats get back in power in this country? Or is he making the bet that the Democrats are never getting back in power? There's going to be an authoritarian regime that runs the United States for the next 30 years?

12:09It's a good question. It's just to me, what is the strategy there? But, but, Cady, this is a number that should scare people in Texas. Okay, you ready? This, and I, and I, and I just, I just got this from Cook. What is Trump's favorability rating in Texas you ready it's 46% okay now that that is high that is high compared to that is about 16 points higher than his national average so so so he's still reasonably well thought of in Texas and he's not on the ballot. I understand that. And everybody knows he's not on the ballot. But you know, that's a pretty good number for the president. Yeah, that is a very good. Somebody somebody on here is saying Texas will never go blue. Keep dreaming fake news media. This is Anthony Churcher. Dude, I'm with you, bro. Anthony, I'm totally with you.

13:11Never say never. Never say never. Texas will never go blue until Texas does go blue. And every political scientist down in Texas I speak to says at some point it will. Dusty's calling him a political bot, like you're a total bot. Maybe. I'm not a bot. I'm not a bot. I'm looking at it. I know how aggressive the Republicans are down there. By the way, before this is over, I predict they're going to spend another $100 million in that race. I guarantee you they're going to go to Elon and say, yeah, the $180, not enough. Could you shoot in another $100? Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, this is crazy this is the most expensive senate rate senate race ever and by the way elon musk is the biggest

13:51political donor in american history he has spent more since 2024 than george soros spent in his whole lifetime that is how much money this guy is spending to impact American. And I think it's a, this is a big question Americans need to have after these midterms is, and I, if Ken Paxton wins in Texas, I think the message to people like Elon Musk will be have at it. This works. You dump a whole load of money there. You can get a very flawed candidate who has been indicted across the line, despite the fact that Republicans up and down Texas, even in Lubbock, Texas, will tell you that Ken Paxton is not a great guy and is not a good candidate. Right? I mean, that's what I'm worried about is the message.

14:38So this is a self-declared role play. Okay. So I'm going to tell you the two roles. Then we're going to get to your questions, guys, a little bit. Okay. I'm playing the Republican. I'm the Texas Republican. I eat the meat. I shoot at things. Have you got the accent? Can you do it for me? I got the accent. I got the 10-gallon hat. I love Texas. And I shoot at things that are moving. Okay. So those are like living things. Okay. And so now I'm upset about the war. I'm upset about the lack of transparency on Epstein. I'm upset about the war. I'm upset about the lack of transparency on Epstein. I'm upset about the affordability. Am I crossing over to vote for Tallarico? Or more likely, are you staying home?

15:15Am I staying home? Which is a vote for Tallarico. So I'm going to say that those people are not doing that. I think they're going, now the next role play, I'm an independent and I'm sort of tired of everything. Am I voting for Tallarico or am I staying home? And I think this is what that race is going to come down to. It's ultimately going to be, are the people who are fed up, have they gotten so apathetic, they're independents, they've declared themselves independents, and they like Tarlo Rico's messaging, but you know he's a little bit milk toast, and they make a decision either to go to the polls and kick out the Republicans or they don't show up. That's the group that I personally am the most worried about.

16:01So I still think Paxson, to me, has the stronger hand here, even though he's slightly down on the polls. All right, we should take the question. Okay, wait, well, there's one more Texas question. So let's take that, then we'll take a break, and then we'll come back with more of your questions. Okay, Matthew Byrne, 4223, is asking, after Trump's two Texas rallies yesterday, is Paxson's biggest liability his own baggage or Trump's Iran war? That is a great question. I would say that every Republican who's running the Iran war is a liability, which is why you're hearing some of them distance themselves from it. But Paxton also has particular baggage, of course, of his own. I am going with Trump's Iran war because it is driving up the price of gas and diesel so much.

16:49And that is what people are reminded of every time. And they drive a lot in Texas every time they drive past a gas stand. What are you reckoning, Anthony? Yeah, I think that's the problem. Again, I think that's the lane. That's the independent lane that you and Katty are talking about, Matthew. That's the lane. And that's independent lane that you and Katty are talking about, Matthew. That's the lane. And that's where I'm worried about the indifference in that lane. Well, it's not going to get any better anyway. It doesn't really matter. I'm not showing up at the polls. Now, I know this is going to sound very weird to everybody, but we got a weird guy running the government. So just hear me out for a second when he is crapping all over paxton's aesthetics

17:28that doesn't help paxton i'm just telling you in the country that we live in it doesn't help paxton okay i know it sounds it's weird i mean i know it sounds superficial i know it sounds superficial but i'm telling you people like oh man this guy this guy Paxson, he's, ooh, even Trump, the open orange spam can even thinks Paxson is hideous. You know, I mean, it doesn't help the guy. Okay. But let's go to the next question. Okay, wait a second. Because Trump is going to speak in Ohio tonight. So what is John Huston thinking to himself? He's like kind of trying to hide his ass. He's got it. No, no, no. He's got it. He's not, no. He's got it. He's not doing any more workouts. His ass is firm enough.

18:10He's checking out his hands right now. He's trying to see how big his hands are. He's got it, guys. You know that Trump's going to bring that up. Okay, we're going to take a quick break and come back with more of your questions. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? We'll be right back. overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. Zepbound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. Zepbound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if Zepbound is safe and effective for use in children.

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21:00Even if this is from Paul Kevin, even if the Dems win the House and the Senate, what's to stop Trump ignoring Congress and do what he wants by executive order? And then what's the point of Congress? This is a question actually, Paul Kevin, that we were asked a lot when we were on our live tour through the states about what would happen afterwards. Two questions there really. I mean, are there shenanigans and he tries not to certify what's happening and doesn't even allow the new Congress to sit. We both think that's very hard to do. These are all individual members of Congress. This is not like January the 6th and 2020. But you're right that he has pretty much been ruling by executive order. He has

21:37ignored Congress. But if the Democrats take the House and the Senate, there are things they can do to force his hand. I mean, they could do to force his hand. I know that they are planning to do a kind of 100-hour blitz and then a 100-day blitz on all of the things they want to address. They particularly want to do something about cost of living around healthcare if they can. They want to try and introduce some popular policies like the resumption of SNAP benefits, of healthcare subsidies, rolling out more Medicaid programs that have been cut back around the country. They're counting on the fact that Republicans might feel those are the kinds of things they don't want to vote against. So there are things

22:15that the Democrats will try and do, but they're also going to do a whole load of investigations. And depending on how they take that, that could work to their advantage or disadvantage. Depends how far they go on that. Yeah. Just remember, everybody, that every president, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, they ramped up the executive orders in the last two years of the term. So you have to not forget that when Trump is doing his shenanigans. Of course, they're going to slow Trump down from a legislative perspective. He issued so far 289 executive orders, and that's more than the 220 that he did his entire first term. So he's going to ramp them up and you've got to be ready for him. And then the question is

23:12how successful or efficacious those will be. But I what I'm seeing, though, and I think this is the thing people got to be ready for is the pardons. You know, you know, he could he could pardon three hundred,, 500 people. Which is another thing, by the way, the Democrats are going to have top of their investigation list, whether there's been an abuse of the pardon power. Okay, Vivian93, this is a great question. We always talk about purple states turning blue in next week's elections. But are there any blue states currently at risk of turning red yes vivian you're right there is i would look at new hampshire where there is a senate race that at the moment the democrats hold uh but that is a lot closer than most democrats are comfortable with democratic

23:58congressman right this is this is john's former senator republican former senator john sununu who is known in New Hampshire. People like him in New Hampshire. He was a pretty popular senator. He is running again this time. He's up against a Democratic congressman, Chris Pappas. New Hampshire is always a quirky state. It's more libertarian than you might think. It's certainly not a kind of lefty, loosey-goosey state like Vermont is. So it would be, that is the one, the big one. Can you think of any others? Anthony, I think that's the big one, right? No, that's the real, that's the big one. And listen, he has the name, you know, I lived in Boston. John's sister weirdly was my RA, my resident assistant at Tufts when I was

24:43a kid. The family has been in that. Imagine being your RA. Wow. It was bad for her, actually. That's a tough job. But, I mean, she was good because I could have been reprimanded like 75 times in the first semester. Yes, in a week. But she was actually okay with me. So if you're out there listening, thank you, Annie. Thank you for letting Anthony off the hook. As it relates to your brother, you guys have the best brand name, 50-year brand name in the state. And again, I think name recognition matters. You know this. I know this. A lot of people are going to the polls. They're not paying attention all day. They open the curtain. They see a sununu. And if they've liked the other sununus they may vote for him so

25:25so that could flip it's a really good question there's a couple of people here who are writing us from new hampshire saying that they think it is uh that they think it's going to be tight as well and we've had a couple of new members join up so that's really nice thank you for joining us and for becoming a member of the rest is politics um can we get this gentleman paid some money here i think we i think until we figure out what Republicans decide to go after Trump, I feel like the entire political world is stuck in the mud. I totally agree. That's going to be the question, okay? I don't know if you saw running with track shoes Marco Rubio last night. I don't know if you saw that. He had his track shoes on and he was running off the stage as fast as humanly possible

26:11because Trump is sweating, he's going all bicurious, he was like a robot that's glitching. And Rubio's like, I don't know, how am I going to get away from this? It's just too much tar on me. And the only way to do that is to excise Trump. And guys, I know this is a crazy thing, but if the Democrats actually took the Senate, they would need 15 Republicans to knock Trump out of his job. Now, I don't know, maybe they wouldn't want Marco, maybe they wouldn't want J.D. Vance in that job because then he'd be running as an incumbent. But I'm just saying they could put a lot of pressure on Trump if they could get 10 or 12 Republicans to say, hey, man, knock it off. It could happen because he's going to be weakened after this.

26:56If they lose the House and the Senate, don't underestimate how angry everybody is in Washington at Donald Trump, including the Republicans. Okay. Kevin Hamilton is asking, this is a good question, Kevin. If the Republicans hold on to both houses, what will that say about the Democrats and the American public given the state of the economy and Trump's disapproval ratings? I mean, you and I have, we've traveled a lot. You're in Lisbon at the moment. I hear this every time I go back to Europe. We heard it up in Canada. If the Democrats lose these midterms when Trump is so unpopular, when everything is going against him, what will it say about the American public? There's one way of phrasing this that doesn't make you think Americans have gone crazy. I know a lot

27:44of foreigners think that America went crazy in 2016. Americans have gone crazy. And they went crazy in 2024. But there are structural reasons why this is hard for Democrats. There's the gerrymandering. There's the money we spoke about. There's the fact that a lot of these Senate seats are in red states where we mentioned this, people have the habit of voting Republican. You're asking them to change their habits. I don't know about you, Kevin, I find it very difficult to change my habit. I want to work out every morning, I still can't do it. I'd rather have my coffee. So I think you're asking people to change their voting habits. That's not easy. So there are reasons why, although I feel there is a big wave, a big blue wave out there, and it's

28:23mostly an anti-Trump, anti-administration wave. It's not that people love the Democrats, by the way, their approval ratings are in the toilet too. But they really don't like the price of gas. They really don't like the Iran war. They're up against this wall. And it's going to be a question of which is more powerful. Is it the wall of money and gerrymandering and habit and red states, or is it the wave? And it could be tight. I think each of these races is very tight. Democrats, by the way, in Washington, because I bump into them all the time, Democratic strategists, they are freaking out at the moment, Anthony. We feel like I need to be handing out Xanax from my doorstep because they're all in panic at the moment.

29:02I mean, this crop of Democrats are bedwetters. You know it and I know it. Well, they have reason have a serious in the woodshed reckoning with each other about what they're doing and what their narrative is as it relates to the American people. But I don't think they are going to. I definitely think they take the House. And there's a chance they could wave into the Senate. It's possible. And we have said they've got some good candidates. I mean, actually, for all of the talk about El-Sayed and the radical left, they've, in fact, in a lot of these reddish states like Kansas and Iowa and Ohio and Alaska. Oh, the Alaska story is kind of interesting. Maybe we should get into that. They have actually chosen some good candidates in those states.

30:01Ian Robbins. It's going to be close. Listen, it's going to be close. It's going to be close. You and I's going to be close. It's going to be close. You and I are going to be tracking this the whole way. I appreciate everybody logging in tonight. I guess we'll know when we know, but Katty and I are going to be live. What time are we starting, Katty? Okay, so wait, we're going to be back. Before we get to election day, we will be back live tomorrow at 8 p.m. UK time, 4 time, 4pm Eastern. You can sign up to the newsletter. If you want that link directly into your inbox, it will come to you. And also one of our reporters in our newsletter has been down in San Antonio, Texas, in Austin and in Houston. She's been speaking to people across the political spectrum,

30:41hearing firsthand about the impact of the economy, about ICE informants. So you can look out for that piece, which you can sign up to at therestispoliticsus.com. And we'll be back tomorrow at 8pm. And then on election night, we will be 5am to 8am London time, midnight to 3am East Coast time with all of the results. Thank you guys. Thanks for joining us today. We'll be back tomorrow. We'll be back tomorrow. Exciting stuff, guys. We'll be back tomorrow. Hang in there, guys. The holidays are busy enough. Getting your home ready shouldn't be. From the perfect tree and twinkling lights to festive decor for inside and out, Wayfair has everything you need to get your home holiday ready. Find furniture, hosting essentials, festive serveware, and more all in one place.

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