236. The Truth Behind Trump’s Rally U-Turn

0:00Welcome to the Restless Politics US and this Friday, October the 30th live stream, it is your Halloween trick or treat election special. What have they got in store for us? Anthony and I are doing this wrap up. We're going to be taking your questions. We'll look at the news of the going to be taking your questions. We'll look at the news of the day. Send in those questions. Thank you for joining us from everywhere. I'm very excited. Somebody is joining us from Denmark, which is kind of fun because Poppy, my youngest daughter, is about to go to Denmark. This is random for her semester abroad. So hello, Denmark. North Berwick, Scotland, Littitz, Pennsylvania, Orlando, Florida. At least you've got nice weather.

0:45Kind of jealous right now. Okay, so what's been happening today? More chaos and confusion has been thrown into the mix of an already messy election run-up. President Trump has U-turned on his decision to cancel rallies in key states, Kansas and Iowa, both of them, of course, battleground states that could decide the fate of the Senate. And guess what? Those rallies are actually having been off. They are now back on again. The Republican National Committee cited Republicans' strong position in both states when explaining the cancellations, but that's not really what the polls have shown. And I guess maybe not so strong after all, since Trump is back to going there. So what's really going on here?

1:26Are these signs that the demands of a tiresome campaign trail are getting the best of Mr. Trump? Or do Republican candidates just not want him ruining their chances by being around them? This episode is brought to you by eToro. A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change. It can all start just as the first line of a speech. But it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come. That's right, Katty. Markets move on expectations, not just events. Investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for company sectors and the wider economy. So eToro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them.

2:14You could also learn from the global community of investors and see how people around the world are interpreting the same news. As with all investing, your capital is at risk. See etoro.com forward slash trip US for full terms. Hi, this is Gary Lineker from Goal Hangers. The rest is football. This episode is brought to you by Wise. It's only when you start moving money between currencies that you really think about the exchange rate, the fee, and what might be hidden away in the small print. Whether you're living abroad, paying someone overseas, or just trying to manage your money across borders, you want a fair exchange rate, an easy transfer, and no surprises along the way. Wise keeps things simple. Wise is a smart way to move the currencies you need around the globe.

3:01It works in more than 160 countries and with over 40 currencies. Most transfers arrive instantly. Wise uses the mid-market exchange rate, like the one you see on Google, with no markups or hidden fees. So when money needs to move, you can see the rate, know the fee, and get on with it. Join millions saving billions on hidden fees by downloading the Wise app today. Be smart, WISE, T's and C's apply. This episode is brought to you by the Financial Times. You don't need to be a journalist to know that there are countless voices out there competing to tell you the what, the who, and the where of the latest news stories. To really understand what's going on, you need to know the why. You get it all in the FT. It's a very objective paper,

3:52and it's lots of fun to read, and it makes you smarter. I also loved Janine Ganesh's opinion piece on why must a socialist always be woke? And he's making the point that the socialists in America have compelling economic policies, but cultural policies that many people in the country hate? Is there a lane for somebody who is a more culturally moderate socialist? I love the FT Weekend. My very favorite thing to read on a Saturday morning. No, I love the FT. I'm just thrilled that they're a sponsor. For the Y, Financial Times. Listeners of the rest is politics. US can save over 40% on an annual digital subscription to the Financial Times. Listeners of The Rest Is Politics US can save over 40% on an annual

4:25digital subscription to The Financial Times by visiting ft.com slash tripus. That's ft.com slash tripus, T-R-I-P-U-S. Subject to terms and conditions. Offer expires October 28th. My friend Christopher Lloyd has a new book out. You remember him? He was Doc Brown. Who is Biff Tannen, Katty Kay? Who is Biff Tannen? No idea. Okay, so Biff- I know the Biff from Back to the Future. Yeah, well, his last name was Tannen. His name was Biff Tannen, okay? Old Biff and young Biff. I just got to explain to everybody what just happened. So Marty McFly hauled Biff Tannen, a coward and a baby, and said he was getting his ass kicked in those two states. And so Biffy, he didn't want to show up. And so guess what happened, Caddy K? He's going to show up and he's going to start talking

5:19about body parts. Okay. So now I am creating a trip us bingo card. Okay. And there'll be Huston's ass on there. It'll be the man boobs of Senator wannabe Paxson. And we're just going to have a bingo card and we'll watch those last two rallies. And we'll just put little checkers on whatever anatomical parts that Donald Trump references, but this is classic Trump. He did not want to go because the, look at me, look at me. Can everybody see that? That's tiny separation between my index finger and my thumb. That is the amount of people showing up at Trump rallies now. And the crowds are getting smaller and smaller. He's blaming vice president Vance, et cetera. Yeah. I texted somebody who speaks to the president fairly often and asked him,

6:11what was it with these on and off, on again and off again rallies? Because now he's making a story out of this. Four days before election day, we are not talking about Trump and what he might be doing about the economy. We're talking about the fact that he canceled a rally. A Reuters reporter asked him why he canceled the rally. Was he sick of going to rallies and doing all of the traveling? Trump got super vicious and attacked the reporter on the tarmac and said, I can't believe it. You guys, you know, you're useless, your news organization is useless. And then said to him, and you look terrible and you need to get in shape, sort yourself out. I mean, gratuitous, you know, criticisms of the guy, attacks on the guy. And then of course, a few hours later, they say,

6:56okay, yes, actually the rally is back on again. This Trump ally who I texted said to me that he just didn't like looking weak. And when he was called out on having canceled the rallies, he didn't like the fact that the news media line was, oh, Mr. President, are you feeling too tired to do rallies? And you're going to do a whole load of telly rallies instead, which is what the White House has said. He didn't like that. He didn't like any suggestion. We know this about him, right? When we did our series for our founding members, he hates looking weak. When I get in Twitter spats with him, which is not often anymore, but used to be, if you call him fat, well, first of all, you can't fat shame, but if you say you're

7:35a little plumpy, he goes crazy. And the other thing you say to him is that you're old. So if you're a little frumpy and a little clumpy and you're old, he goes absolutely crazy and they should play that piano key a little bit harder on him because look at what he just did. And he doesn't want to go and they don't want him there. And so it was a weird play. It was almost like, okay, how can we help ourselves in these two states? This is the Democrats thinking, let's egg the cat out a little bit. Let's see if he takes the bait. Yeah, and he did. And we did hear it. I mean, on Monday, he was at a rally and his voice was kind of raspy. And he told the crowd that his vocal cords weren't made for a rally every day.

8:19He said to this reporter, this Reuters reporter, I've done 28 rallies and I'm doing just great. But I think the Kansas rally being canceled initially and repaced by a virtual one is, he was tired. He doesn't like standing next to losers. He doesn't like the idea that Marshall might lose and he's standing on a stage having to prop up somebody who's not doing well in the polls. And whatever the Republican National Committee wants to say, actually, what's the latest approval rating? Oh, yeah, here you go. The latest poll that was published by the Washington Post on Kansas has Senator Marshall at 52%, has Marshall at 43%, and Adam Hamilton, the pastor who we've spoken about on the show quite often at 52%. That, Anthony,

9:05we've spoken about the margin of error, and it's important to speak about the margin of error because everyone's pointing that out today, that a lot of these races are in the margin of error. 52%, 43%, that's not in the margin of error, right? That's comfortable. No, it's not. The question is, as you pointed out to me earlier, you sent me a message about over-polling and over oversampling Democrats. Do you think that that's happening? That's actually the Washington Post when it put out this poll, which is its last, the Friday pre-Halloween poll, October surprise poll that it's just put out. It actually, in an unusual move, I don't remember the Post doing this. It put out like a little editorial disclaimer, which is worth people reading, where they said, look, we are

9:46aware that we may be oversampling Democrats and Adam Hamilton may not be up 52% to 43% in Kansas, for example. And I thought it was interesting that they put that out. If they are oversampling Democrats in all of these polls, which we are now four days from election day. And yes, we're having stories of massive turnouts and early voting. But let's say all of these polls are slightly over-slumpling Democrats. A lot of these polls are within the margin of error anyway. Everyone's looking at them thinking, wow, there is a huge blue wave on the Senate races. Each of these races, Antony, I still think could fall one way or the other. They could fall to the Republicans and it wouldn't mean the polls were wrong, right?

10:29Am I right? That's the way it works if they're in the margin of error. Okay, but you're seasoned. You're seasoned at this and you know- Are you saying I'm old and been around too long? No, I'm just- It's like that word veteran. Why do people say veteran? I mean, really what they mean is you're old. Go on. It just means that you're wise, Katty. Forget about being old. You're wise and you know something about momentum. Okay. Okay. And where is the wave right now? Is it a red wave? No. Or is there a blue wave? Like where is the shifting momentum? Where's the momentum, Katty? There is a blue wave and there is a red wall. And the red wall is the gerrymandering and the fact that so few states are competitive.

11:14So many of these races are in red states and it is money. So which is going to be stronger on election day? Is it going to be the blue wall, the blue wave, or the red wall? I think that's what we're going to have to look out for on election night, right? Because there's two big forces happening. But this early voting is worth talking about because I'm now reading more and more stories about early voting around the country and we're getting- 46 million people. Incredible turnout. For a midterm, I mean, nobody usually gives a toss about turnout on midterms. That is a big number. 46 million people, a big number, don't you think? Yeah, I think that's a huge number. Big number. And they're seeing also the Democrats are feeling a little relieved because they're seeing a lot of turnout in bluish areas of these states.

11:58But they're not counting that chickens yet, right? Okay, so is it better right now in Maine to be the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine? That's such a good question. Because if the Republican candidate is Susan Collins, who has all of that history in the state and likes to describe herself not as the senator of Maine, but as the mayor of 500 small Maine towns. She has this unique connection to Maine and she is up against this blue wall, which is demanding change because part of what is driving that blue wave, keep calling it a wall. Why don't they just have different letters? That blue wave is being driven by an anti-incumbency feeling. And she's up against somebody who's not a good candidate, but that anti-incumbency wave could

12:52be enough to knock her over. What do you think? Okay. Very close there. I'm going to give it to Collins. I think it's very, you're going to give it to Collins. I'm going to give it to Collins. Okay. I thought you would do. Now let's go to Rogers. Oh, we're going to do the whole list. Okay. I just want to hear it. I want to hear it. Yeah, I want to hear it. Okay. Okay. See where we are on Friday. I know you're going to make me whole list? Okay. I just want to hear it. Yeah, I want to hear it. Okay, okay. Because you know where- See where we are on Friday. I know you're going to make me take a break, so I want to get through the list. Okay. Rodgers, El Sayed. Yeah, Collins. I'm actually going to go with El Sayed.

13:15Okay. All right. Which is a hold. It's not a take. It's a hold. Yeah, I'm not sure on that one, so I'm going to be a little more ambivalent than you, but I feel like he has the momentum. All right. Tallarico, I have gone back and forth. I am a Marco Rubio-like weatherman. Oh boy, Tallarico. I am spinning in my seat. I'm going back and forth. I can't figure that one out. So go ahead. I'm going with Tallarico. Okay, so I think Tallarico is going to win. I think Tallarico is going to win. And this is the first time I'm saying it. And I really hope that I'm not jinxing the kid because I really desperately want him to win. Okay. So we did Michigan. We did Maine. We did Texas. Let's go to Alaska.

14:01I think this, you don't think it is. I think this disclosure that we spoke about on the live stream yesterday by the New York Times is a problem for Peltola. I think I'm going to give Alaska to Dan Sullivan. Okay. All right. You may be right about that. Maybe I'm not sensing it. I just feel like, and I could be overly biased because I'm not sampling appropriately in Alaska. I'm talking to people in Alaska that are upset about some of these things going on up there. But let's see. I mean, listen, I mean, this is going to be an exciting night. Okay, what about Kansas? Election night. Wait a second. Kansas, Hamilton, or Marshall? With, of course, Donald. If Donald Trump turns up and praises Marshall's ass, does it make a difference in Kansas?

14:46Does Marshall have a nice ass, though? I don't know. I don't know, but I'm sure- I gotta look him up. I suspect Trump will know by the end of the rally, right? The question is, does he look like Husted or does he look like Paxson? I gotta look the guy up, you know, because he could show up and say, you know, your ass is just not doing it for me. And I think that could hurt him. I'm not into your ass. Do you think in 2,000 years, the vicar of Christ, Pope Leo, he has asked for a mail-in ballot. The Vatican announced this morning he sent back his mail-in ballot. Do you think Pope Leo is voting MAGA? Have you had a bet? Is he voting MAGA? If I had a hotline to God and I could ask the Lord whether his representative on earth was voting MAGA and the Lord had to swear by the truth, well, I would say probably God would tell me no.

15:45Okay. All right. So I'm going to go. That's a pretty- I'm not a big MAGA fan. That is a pretty big thing. But here's the other thing, and you know this, Katty, because you see the polling. The Trump and MAGA team have lost 30% of the Catholics that were once supporting them. They had 60%. You told me that earlier today. Yeah, 12 million people have said, hey, man, bye-bye. And because the Pope is still the vicar of Christ, and he's still the leader of the Catholic Church, and he has signaled displeasure with all of this crazy nonsense. But I got to go back to Alaska, and I think she's going to win Alaska. Okay, so you're giving, okay. And because it is so anti-incumbent. What about- The theme is anti--incumbent. What about-

16:26The theme is anti-incumbency. What about Kansas? Do you give that to Hamilton or do you give that to Marshall? I give it to Hamilton. I think Hamilton wins. I think he's run a great campaign. He's a very good candidate for Kansas. When J.D. Vance is out there attacking Adam Hamilton's religion and Christian bona fides. He's not just attacking Adam Hamilton. He's attacking all the people who go to his church, which is the biggest Methodist congregation in the country. So I'm giving that to Hamilton. You know, there's going to be a bronze or a gold star for Chuck Schumer if he actually pulls this off because you've got enough moderate candidates, despite all the rhetoric and the DSA and all the crazy nonsense out there,

17:12you've got moderate candidates running against MAGA and the beauty contest judge, which just happens to be a male beauty contest judge known as Donald Trump. Okay, so we're going to see what happens. We're going to take some of these questions. Wait a second. We haven't finished the list very quickly. You doing Hamilton or Marshall in Kansas? Just to refresh my memory, Hamilton is the pastor. Hamilton is the pastor, the Democrat. Yeah, I think he's going to win. I think he'll win. And Marshall is the pastor. Hamilton is the pastor, the Democrat. Yeah, I think he's going to win. I think he'll win. And Marshall is the doctor who arrested people for not paying their bills, including a pregnant woman.

17:51I think Hamilton, I think you and I, and I was wrong about the Harris election, and so I have to eat crow for that. But we could be waking up very early in the UK, and we could be talking about a purpling of Kansas, which I'd never thought would have happened. First time in 94 years. We'll be talking about a purpling in Texas. It's the first time in 38 years. And that's possible, Cady. That's possible. That's possible because of how destructive the administration has been in the last 24 months. And then I think the only other one that we should mention just before we get to Halloween and to the actual race day that we haven't spoken about is South Carolina. There's a lot of attention being paid to South Carolina.

18:37The president's been there. You've got Democrat Annie Andrews running against Lindy Graham's sister, Darlene Graham. If they lose South Carolina, as if they lose Texas, this is entirely on Donald Trump. These are handpicked candidates by him in both states and in both states, his handpicked candidates. What do you think there? Look, I think it's not impossible. I mean, it's not impossible that- So I think Graham wins there because of the long legacy of the Graham family in that state. And because I also know how this works, the name Graham is going to be on the ballot and people are going to reelect that name is what I think. Listen, I don't think a lot of people are factoring that one in as a big flip. Of course, if it did flip, man, if you flipped and you got those other flips

19:32and you're sort of 53-47, that is a big problem for President Trump because he'll have bicameral investigations with teeth. And I think that is a very big problem. And he'll react violently. He'll do all kinds of crazy stuff and tweeting and this election's invalidated and we're suing that person and we're suing this person because that's him. He won't be able to stop himself. Even if Todd Blanch tells him, hey, these states are totally legally allowed to certify. Everything's fine here. He will still press it because his name is Donald Trump. Yeah. Should we take these questions? Let's take some questions. Hold on a second. We're just going to take, I do think by the way, Iowa, I think Republicans probably hold that one. So we'll do the mass again on Monday night and on

20:23Tuesday night and on Wednesday morning when you join us for the layoff stream. We're going to take a quick break and then take your questions. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? Zepbound Terzepatide may be able to help. Zepbound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. Zepbound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. Zepbound contains terzapatide and should not be used with other terzapatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is

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22:29Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Talk to your doctor and explore what's possible, or call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more about Tramfaya and visit tramfayarRadio.com. Now for a quick message from Anthropic, the team behind Claude, the AI built for businesses. Every business wants to move faster. Few can afford to be wrong. That's why nine Fortune 10 companies count on Claude for the work they want to get right. Safety and accuracy aren't just boxes to check off for the research team at Anthropic. It's kind of their whole mission. See how Claude works at claude.ai.span. Okay, this is a great question from Open the Straight, you crazy bastards. That's great. Corruption has been polling

23:25as a top issue for voters, but not in 2024 or during Trump 1.0. Why has tolerance for corruption been so high until now? I mean, I think the issue here is that corruption has just been so much more apparent and brazen in this administration. There was some reporting on it in the first term, but actually Donald Trump in the first term, he tried a little harder to stick to the rules and play by the rules. In fact, during this term, at the beginning of this term, he said on television, look, in the first term, I did all the things they asked me to do about taking my name off my family's company and not getting involved in my family's business. And I got no credit for it, Anthony. I got no credit for it. And because you guys did not give me credit for behaving well in my first term,

24:16this time around, I've decided what the hell is basically what he said in this television interview. So his family have been much more brazen about it. They've been far more open about it. They haven't tried to hide it. And I think that's why corruption has just been. And then you've had the Kimberly Guilfoyle story just a couple of weeks before the election, front page news, a classic pay to play, pay off my Amex bill, $100,000, and I will get you access to people in the Trump administration close to the president. So I think there's just been a lot more of it going on and a lot more exposure of it going on. And that's why people are fed up with it. And I think people are thinking, look, we are suffering. Maybe when the economy is doing

24:55well and people are not finding it hard to choose between their grocery bills and their gas bills, they have more tolerance for people at the top making a lot of money. But I think there is a little intolerance at the moment for the idea that people around Donald Trump are making shit loads of money and they are struggling to make ends meet. Any other thoughts on that, Anthony? I think it's going to be the single defining issue. I think the exit polling is going to be, you guys are corrupt. I hate you guys. And I want you away from the government. You failed the fiduciary test. And I really do believe that because I think it is a terrible thing that they're doing. And as you know, when you have corruption at the top, you extinguish hope at the bottom. You make people think that there's no way that they can get ahead.

25:48And so you're supposed to be helping these people and you're only helping yourself. I think it's going to be really bad. I would recommend, by the way, Peggy Noonan's op-ed. I sent it to you. You and I were speaking about it on the phone this morning, Anthony, about how the Republican Party could rebuild itself. And you were asking me, can we get back from this? Can we get back from some of these structural changes? And we were talking about the corruption because I've lived in countries where corruption was rampant and it is hard to row back from. It takes incredibly strong leadership to say, okay, no mass. But you said you feel like they're doing it. You feel like they're doing it. There are countries. I think there are some Eastern European countries where they've really

26:30tried to clamp down on it. And you can do it, but it takes strong character in leadership and a lot of intolerance. And you need to show all the way down the line, this will not be tolerated and prosecute those people who get involved in it. So cleaning up this corruption is going to be, I think, one of the first things that whoever comes in in 2028 has to do and one of the hardest things. Okay, let's choose another question, Anthony. Well, somebody here said something that I should give up the goose on the Republican Party, that it's irreparable. You believe that honestly, Katty? It's completely irreparable? The Republican Party is completely gone? You don't, right? Because you know how much these Republicans hate Trump, right? You live in Washington.

27:15I talked to a former ambassador this morning, been a Republican forever. The inimical hatred of Donald Trump throughout the elected class and the donor class now and the establishment is off the chart. Do you think it's too far gone? No. I think we spoke about this during our live tour. It was one of the questions that came up a couple of times. I think the party can rebuild itself, but it's going to have to have a pretty clean sweep of all of the people, which is a lot of them, who have acquiesced to Trump over the last 10 years, particularly during the last year and a half when there's been so much havoc caused around the country. And I think you're going to have to have a new crop of politicians come in. But I think the basic desire for a party with genuinely conservative principles in this country,

28:11whether it's called the Republican Party or the Conservative Party, whatever you call it, is still there. America is still basically a center-right country. I do believe that. There are a lot of people in this country who want a free market economy without the government buying up 10% of Intel and major companies and acting like a socialist government. And they want free markets, they want the government to stay out of their lives, they have a libertarian streak to them. And I think that segment of the population still exists. But the trouble is you've got so many Republican politicians who've got into bed with Trump, as it were, guys, steady on, not literally, who've got into bed with Trump over the last

28:49year and a half and over the last 10 years. I don't see that they have a place in a future Republican party. They can't. They can't. It's going to have to be a clean sweep of people. But there are people out there who have always said there are Republicans out there, like you have always said, like the Lincoln Project, all of those people. I'm a Republican. I have Republican principles, but I don't like MAGA and I don't like Trumpism and I don't like this cult of personality. And there are enough of them around. And I think you're going to hear more from them after these midterms, actually. What do you think? You think it can come back? You're a bit more pessimistic than I am about this. You know, I want to be there for it, so I'm going to have a glimmer of hope. But I see the comments,

29:32and I respect the comments, by the way, because I do think this guy, Johnny Rotten, F3P, hey, mooch, the Republican Party can never be trusted after this past decade. Stop thinking you are so smart to rebuild it. It has to die. First of all, I don't think I'm that smart, Johnny, trust me. But I do think he might be right. It sucks, Caddy. That's just the bottom line. All right, but let's keep going here. We got a lot of great questions. So do you think there'll be a very heavy ICE presence? This is from Deb Main. Do you think that'll happen at the polling booths? I actually don't think there will be a heavy ice presence. And I don't think you're going to have a heavy military presence. We had the head of the military, General Kane,

30:17had to actually put out a statement, a written statement, saying he had no plans to send the military to polling places. We thought there was going to, remember, we did a whole episode before the World Cup where we thought there was going to be a heavy ice presence at the World Cup, and there wasn't. So I think, but again, maybe it's one of those things. They wanted there to be, it's just the whole Minneapolis thing happening. Yes, and I think that's part of it, that there won't be. But even the thought that there might be may be enough to turn some people off. And they may have done the job they wanted to do anyway by suppressing the vote, by making some people afraid of voting. Okay. Here's another one. SJ Davies, 47. What happens to MAGA if the Democrats win one or both houses? Do they go away to find the next Trump or does it just melt away?

31:09All right. Can I start with that one? Yeah, go. Doesn't melt away. There is too much orange dye in the ice. Okay. So as the ice is melting, there'll be stains on whoever gets in the next job. They're not going to be able to leave MAGA entirely. It's just not going to happen. The next Republican will be somehow affiliated with him. If they get destroyed by the Democrats, then the 2032 Republican, I think it'll be jump ball. What do you think, Ed? No, I think it doesn't melt away. I think it's going to take a little longer than that two years. And I think MAGA, whoever runs as the Republican in 2028 has to have MAGA bona fides. We're not there yet to ditch it, but I think you're right, 32, 36. By 36, we'll be looking in the rearview mirror,

32:05I reckon. Anything completely unhinged coming? This is Nicola. This is a good question. Lucas Schmidt. Oh, sorry. Was that a question, Anthony? Go ahead. Yeah, yeah. Do you think we could be on the brink of some- Who's it from, the question? This is from Nicola King, 2704. Do you think we'd be on the brink of something catastrophic if this administration is not stopped in literally the next week or so? They appear at their most unhinged. Can they be stopped? They can be. They'll be, I think the technical term is a vibe shift. If the Democrats take both the House and Senate, there will be a vibe shift. And some of the steamrolling energy of the MAGA movement and of this White House will be sapped.

32:56The momentum will not be on their side. But that doesn't mean that the president doesn't have just over two years still in office. We are not even halfway there yet, guys. And that he can't do a lot, particularly around the world, right? So I do think there's still a lot of things he can do. And he won't be able to be stopped totally. I think that's something I keep getting asked in the UK. There are things the Democrats will do. They'll try to do stuff on healthcare. They'll try to do stuff on healthcare. They'll try to do stuff on tariffs. They just don't have the power. They won't have the power. They have no power for policy wise. And you don't have, they're not going to get 60 Senate seats, which is what you need to

33:36actually do things in this country. So they're not going to get 60 Senate seats. So what about Kylie Millar? What do you think of the reporting of the naval buildup in the Middle East? This is Kylie Millar, 1321. Yeah, I think we are, that might be something that, you know, this is relates to our last question. That might be something, one of the big things that happens quite soon after the midterms. He's already signaled it. So I think you could see that we're going to have strikes against Iran. When you start building up and you start spending the money it takes to push a buildup somewhere, it's very unlikely that you're not going to use it. He's going to want to distract from the fact that he's just lost the House and the Senate.

34:18Never underestimate Donald Trump's need for distraction when he feels the bad news is looking at him. He did this. Again, we spoke about this in our series on him kind of growing up in New York in the 1980s. There he was going bankrupt in Atlantic City and he just finds another headline and puts it out there. And it doesn't matter if the headline is good or bad, it's a distraction from that first headline. So imagine we were all waking up, if the Democrats have won or do win the House and the Senate, and it's a big if, we're all conscious of margins of error. He's not going to like those headlines, Anthony, right? He's not going to like those headlines and he's going to want to find something that he can do that gets people talking about something else and how much power he still

34:59has. Because I think that's why he's put these rallies back on again. It's so basic. He just didn't like the idea that he looked weak. And if he loses the House and the Senate, he's going to look weak because this is a referendum on Donald Trump. He's asked people to say, imagine I'm on the ballot. If people reject him effectively and everything he stands for, then he's going to want a different headline. It's as simple as that. It's not that there is a new strategy. I don't think, unless you've heard something I haven't heard, it's not that there is a new strategy here about Iran. Okay. You know, I think it's something to be worried about. I mean, listen, how could you not be worried? I mean, how could you sit here,

35:46listen to this man talk, listen to the sycophants, watching John Thune campaigning and sitting there like a robot. You talk about a robot. He's sitting there like a robot. How could you not be worried? Of course, you would have to be worried. You know, of course we're worried, you know? It's really bad, Katty, you know. And that's why I want these guys stamped out. I want them crushed. Should we take this last question before we go? So this is Mary Lee Dillon. I like this question. So who do you think Trump will blame if his candidates lose? Who's for the wood chipper, Anthony? I got it. My money's still on Hexeth, okay. I think Susie's lose. Who's for the wood chipper, Anthony? I got it. My money's still on Hexeth.

36:28Okay. I think Susie's gone. Susie Wiles. Which actually often happens with chiefs of staff, right? After losing midterms. But I also think she wants to get back to lobbying. That was the whole point of her whole Vanity Fair article. And I think Hexeth is gone. I don't think he can keep Hegseth because I think they're going to move to impeach him. I don't think Marsha Blackburn is going to give him a Senate seat. I think that would be on a hinge for her to do that. Particularly if she has the choice of picking somebody that she's closer to, just wouldn't make political sense for her to do that. And I don't think she would take, let's say Trump tried to strong arm her. She'd be like, dude, you're out

37:04of here in two years. So I think those two are the ones that are on the block. What do you think? I was wondering about JD. I don't think he's on the block, but the way that he's talking about JD, have you heard this in some of his rallies where he's making one of those kind of joke, not jokes about how JD can't fill a stadium and how he's getting these small crowds? I wonder if he also blames... He'll blame everybody apart from himself, even though he has said, pretend I'm on the ballot. But there'll be a lot of blame going around. So yeah, but I mean, JD can't go anywhere and JD's not giving up the vice presidents. Remember, he's constitutionally locked in. He was elected to the seat, cannot be fired by Trump.

37:45So before we leave this wonderful program, Fox News announcing two minutes ago their Fox News poll on the Texas Senate race, 49-49, Cady, 1% undecided. What do you think about that one? And Fox News, by the way, those polls always upset President Trump because they are pretty legitimate polling at Fox News. Well, and also he thinks of Fox as his channel. He's spoken about that before. Right. So he likes their polling to be his kind of polling. I know, but sometimes those polls don't- I mean, 49-49 is not the kind of poll actually that's going to be welcomed in Democratic circles. That is way too close for comfort for Democrats right now. Do you think that poll's accurate? If it's accurate, it means that Republican voters are not staying home.

38:39They are coming back to the party. They have been swayed by the amount of money that Elon Musk has pumped into this race and they buy the argument that a vote for Tallarico is a vote for communism. I think that's a reality check, that poll for Democrats, because in the last few polls that I've seen, Tallarico has been up a few points. I'm so lost on this race. I have to confess that to everybody because one side of me is the machine. The machine's going to cream Tallarico. And then the other side of me is, wait a minute, man. He's got the money and he's got the momentum. So I don't know. We'll see. And also, don't ignore the Hispanic voters. The Hispanic and Asian voters. We haven't spoken about Asian voters much, but all of the polling from 2024 to today shows that the two groups that have moved the most against Trump who voted for him, number one, Hispanic voters and very close behind them are Asian voters. There are not as many Asian voters, obviously, in America, but in certain states and in certain districts,

39:47they can be the deciding factor. And they, like Hispanic voters, have been disillusioned by this administration. Anyway, we will have more. We'll be back on Monday after Halloween. Have a great Halloween, everybody. The next live... Happy Halloween. We're all looking forward to seeing photographs, which Anthony will post, of his costume. The next live stream will be Monday, 8 p.m. UK time, 3 p.m. Eastern. Then we've got Tuesday, 6 p.m. UK, 1 p.m. Eastern. Then, of course, our three-hour marathon Wednesday, early in the morning in London, 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. London time, 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. Eastern time, when we hope we will have lots of the results. And if we don't, we'll come back and give you those when we get them.

40:32Okay, guys. We've got to pin ourselves, though, Monday. You and me. I'm going to make a little trip U.S. This is it. We've got to pin ourselves. We'll gamify it. We'll do it. This way we can either look really smart, luckily, or stupid one way or the other. Remember, of course, you can sign up at therestispoliticsus.com, become a founding member, and we have lots more content for you there. Okay, guys. And please play Body Parts Bingo while we're away with Donald J. Trump. Sorry. Bye, guys. Now for a quick message from Anthropic, the team behind Claude, the AI built for businesses. Every business wants to move faster. Few can afford to be wrong. That's why nine Fortune 10 companies count on Claude for the work they want to get right. Safety and accuracy aren't just boxes

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