What does Robert Pape predict Putin will do in Ukraine this winter?

Robert Pape expects Vladimir Putin to escalate around Thanksgiving once he concludes that Donald Trump cannot deliver the Ukrainian territory he wants. Putin's plan, Pape says, is to knock out about 90% of the power in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa, leaving the cities dark for a month or two. Pape argues Putin is in his own escalation trap: after at least 250,000 Russian dead and gains of about 1% of Ukraine's territory, accepting defeat could cost him his life.

• Pape says only Ukraine could hand over the land, and Volodymyr Zelensky could be killed by his own side if he did.
• Pape says Putin wants the rest of four oblasts already annexed on paper, and possibly the wider Novorossiya region.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett (2026-11-05). Read the whole episode summary →

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