What is Robert Pape's escalation trap theory about the Iran war?

Robert Pape defines an escalation trap as a strong country attacking a weaker one, winning tactically, and yet leaving the weaker side more powerful. In Iran, he says, bombs hit targets and killed leaders, but Iran quickly gained control of the Strait of Hormuz and with it about 20% of the world's oil. He argues that Donald Trump, rather than accepting a draw, keeps raising his bets like a roulette player chasing losses, because the political cost of losing keeps growing.

• Pape says the trap began with the strike on the Supreme Leader, then a six-week air campaign, neither of which made Iran cave.
• Pape compares Trump's position to Lyndon Johnson's escalation in Vietnam as public support fell.
• Pape says the borrowed chips are MAGA's political support, which comes due when the new Congress sits on January 3.

▸In their words

“An escalation trap, Stephen, is when a strong country like the United States and Israel attacks a weaker country and they have tactical success.” Robert Pape · at 16:51 — open in the transcript →

“International politics, especially when a strong power is ahead, is not a chess game.” Robert Pape · at 19:05 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett (2026-11-05). Read the whole episode summary →

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