Why does Sarah Paine call the Iran war one of the most incompetent wars in history?

Sarah Paine told Steven Bartlett that a well-run war puts the costs on the enemy, while the Iran war has hurt the US economy, broken its alliance system and dragged down the world economy. She said planners missed that Iran's first move would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the US base in Bahrain. With about 90 million people, Iran could never be occupied, and the war has taught every state that it needs a nuclear weapon.

• Paine compared Iran with Nazi Germany, roughly 80 million people, whose postwar occupation she put at about 1.5 million troops.
• Paine said the Obama-era nuclear deal, signed by the UN Security Council's permanent members and the EU, was imperfect but feasible.
• Paine contrasted General Mattis in Trump's first term with Pete Hegseth, whom she called historically unqualified.

▸In their words

“We have incentivized proliferation.” Sarah Paine · at 16:37 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett (2026-10-29). Read the whole episode summary →

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