Why did Nate Cohn call the Minnesota Times/Siena poll a possible canary in the coal mine?

Jon Favreau explained on Pod Save America that Minnesota's voter file carries no party registration, so pollsters cannot use it to correct for reaching too few Republicans. Nate Cohn suggested that the poll's 14-point lead for Peggy Flanagan might therefore show what an uncorrected sample looks like. Dan Pfeiffer pushed back. He said a 14-point margin is about what a 10.5-point national environment plus Minnesota's 4-point Democratic lean would predict.

• The Times poll weighted Minnesota by self-identified party, Pfeiffer said.
• Pfeiffer still called the result an outlier against other Minnesota polls.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-10-30). Read the whole episode summary →

▸More from this episode