What does Dan Pfeiffer say about the polls being wrong in the 2026 midterms?

Dan Pfeiffer told nervous subscribers that a polling error is possible, but that midterm polls were relatively accurate in 2018 and 2022 and that misses do not always favor Republicans. In 2022, about half the state-level misses underestimated Democrats. In Virginia and New Jersey in 2025, the polls underestimated Democrats by 6 and 10 points. Setting polls aside, he noted that Trump's party lost the 2018 midterm vote by 8.5 points with a strong economy and no war.

• Pfeiffer said the 2022 red wave came from bad analysis of the polls, not from the polls themselves.
• Jon Favreau said a 10.5-point national margin, as in the Times/Siena poll, is probably enough to take the Senate.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-10-30). Read the whole episode summary →

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