How did Martin Seligman predict Trump would beat Harris using optimism?

Martin Seligman has scored optimism in nomination acceptance speeches back to Grover Cleveland and says the more optimistic candidate wins in more than half of elections. Trump and Harris scored about equally in those speeches, so for the first time he also tracked press conferences through October 31. From around September 15 Trump's explanations grew more optimistic, and Seligman's team sent a sealed prediction of a substantial Trump win to reporters.

• Seligman scores how candidates explain bad events, not how many they mention, so a darker speaker can still rate as optimistic.
• Seligman cites an experiment where listeners hang up faster on cold calls read in a depressive tone than in a chirpy one.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Modern Wisdom (2026-10-24). Read the whole episode summary →

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