Answered from 2026 Election Night Livestream with the Besties! · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · 2026-11-03
Shayne Coplan explained on All-In that a Polymarket contract trades like a share that pays $1 if a candidate wins, so a 25-cent price implies a 25% chance. Every buyer needs a seller, so anyone overpaying to push a price up invites professional traders and market makers to take the other side almost instantly. He also said a 70% favourite should lose about three times in ten, so an upset does not mean the market was wrong.
“the more people try to manipulate the market, the more of an incentive it is for the market to become more accurate” Shayne Coplan · at 49:58 — open in the transcript →
Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg (2026-11-03). Read the whole episode summary →