Donald Trump’s Texas Troubles

0:00This is The Guardian. Today, has even Texas turned on Trump? Some travelers want the charm of an independent hotel. Others want the confidence of a trusted global brand. With Series by Marriott, you get both. Each property is uniquely connected to its destination, delivering local experiences and memorable stays, while being backed by the quality, reliability, and Marriott Bonvoy benefits travelers know and trust. Experience the destination without the compromise. Series by Marriott is part of Marriott Bonvoy. Book direct at Marriott.com or on the Marriott Bonvoy app. Everything's big in Texas. It's practically the state slogan. Big in size, big in attitude, big on old-fashioned American values.

1:08Texas has given us barbecue culture, cowboys, and two presidents called George Bush. It's been red for decades. If Republicans lose here, it's a big, big deal. And yet this week, Trump has had to make his fifth campaign visit crisscrossing the state, rallying his base for the midterms. On election night, Texas is going to prove that America does not belong to those who hate it. America belongs to those who love it. And pushing hard for his guy, Ken Paxton, in the way only he knows how. This guy is considered by many to be the best or among the best few, but he's the greatest in the history of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. But they're flagging. What was supposed to be a comfortable win for Republicans has now

2:04become the most closely watched race of the elections. their flagging. What was supposed to be a comfortable win for Republicans has now become the most closely watched race of the elections. On The Guardian, I'm Noshi Nikbal. Today in Focus, why Texas is spelling trouble for Trump. David Smith, welcome back to Today in Focus. Great to be here. Thank you. You're the Guardian's Washington Bureau Chief. So forgive me, this question is probably below your pay grade, but let's just bear with me. Let's get to the basics. What are the midterms and why do they matter? The midterm elections happen every four years and they are called midterms because they are halfway through a presidential term. And the elections decide control of the US Congress. Every seat in the House of Representatives

2:53is up for grabs, and then about a third of the Senate seats as well. And this will matter for various reasons, including Congress can be a check on the power of the president. And what we've seen historically often is that presidents do badly during midterms. There's often an anti-incumbent sentiment. In addition to all of that, there are lots of elections for state governors who are influential figures and often themselves going to run for president one day. David, you do get out of DC, of course, and recently you went to Texas, the home of honky-tonk, cowboys, everything being supersized. If the Democrats win there, they'll have a very good chance of taking control of the Senate. Well, Texas has arguably become the biggest battleground state in the country.

3:40Normally, it's a safe Republican territory, but not this time. Democrats really fancy their chances and Democrats win in Texas. That would be a huge symbolic blow to Donald Trump. If a state that's as conservative and Republican as Texas goes against him, that will tell us a lot about public sentiment. I went to the state capital, Austin, because that's the home of James Tallarico, who is Democrats' big hope here, running for the US Senate and actually now only ahead in most polls at the moment. July, at the end of July, look at that, it was Tallarico plus three. August, Tallarico plus three. September, Tallarico plus three. October, Tallarico plus three. And people on the ground, they're enthusiastic for Tallarico plus three. September, Tallarico plus three. October, Tallarico plus three.

4:25People on the ground, they're enthusiastic for Tallarico and say if he wins, this will be an electoral earthquake. It will be the first time Democrats have got a senator elected in Texas since 1988 and the first time Democrats have won any statewide office since 1994. There is a tremendous amount at stake here, given that, you know, Texas is the second biggest state by landmass, second biggest state by population, hugely important for future elections, including for the presidency. It's such a big prize in the electoral college. If a Democrat won Texas in a presidential election, it would be very hard for Republicans to overcome that. I think it's also important because Texas is such an amalgam of different demographic groups.

5:12It's a place to watch in terms of national trends as Texas goes, so goes the nation. David, talk to me about the mood because Austin's something of an outlier, I think. I mean, I've spent an inordinate amount of time in Texas. I was counting up the trips before this episode, and it's something like two dozen from when my sister lived there, you know, from the era of Bush through to Obama, Trump, Biden back again. As you say, it's a very red place, very Christian, very conservative. What did it feel like on the ground when you were there? Well, yeah, I remember Rick Perry himself, a Texan politician, describing many of these states as they're like blueberries in tomato soup, by which he meant the cities like Austin and Dallas and

6:00Houston and so on, often are very democratic. They often have Democrats as mayors. These are the liberal progressive hubs. But then when you travel 50 miles in any direction, you're surrounded by the Sea of Red and the Republican heartlands in the rural areas. But the demographics of Texas are shifting. Latinos are the fastest growing group, now making up more than 40% of the population and crucial for any politician there. As with the rest of the country, white Christians are in decline. And in cities such as Austin, which I visited, you can see Texas becoming younger and more diverse, felt quite buzzy and metropolitan. And the other thing that's happening around Austin, it is becoming a major tech hub. I was struck just walking down the street how many driverless taxis,

6:51Waymos and others were floating around. And near Austin, Elon Musk has set up home and his big companies like SpaceX are there. These tech billionaires found what they thought was a refuge. It's very low tax, very low regulation. One person compared it to the modern Wild West. And so the current debates around tech and data centers are very front and center in Austin and Texas generally. what is it about talarico what makes him interesting why what is his appeal well um he's young he's 37 he's a fresh face on the democratic scene he's religious um whilst a state representative he went to study at the austinbyterian Seminary, which I visited, learned that as part of that course, you know, he'd be learning Hebrew and ancient Greek and no doubt honing his public speaking skills.

7:55He was a rising star for quite a number of years in the Texas House of Representatives. You can't offer thoughts and prayers on Monday and then debate a bill to loosen gun regulations on Tuesday. Well, of course, Republicans have a majority. So there were moments when he had to learn how to work with Republicans. And often I spoke to Wendy Davis, former Texas politician who now runs the Political Action Committee. And she remembered the first time she met James Tallarico at a fundraiser and how he made an instant impression. The Republican members of the statehouse had taken a call on him, baby gov. And I think everyone assumed that at some point he would run for governor because even they could see how uniquely talented he was.

8:46But other moments where he was standing up for public education, in particular as a former middle school teacher himself. I interviewed Edward Garcia, former principal of the middle school where James Tallarico was a teacher. He remembered Tallarico putting up posters of civil rights leaders. And he enlarged Rosa Parks, Martin Luther King, Gandhi, put together these leaders, and he had a theme of freedom and just working hard to gain what you have. So he's young, religious, pretty progressive, which, as I understand it, has not exactly been a straightforward mix for him. Yeah, he's been getting into one or two controversies. When he talks about progressive issues, there's one now famous remark

9:37where he described God as non-binary. God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is non-binary. God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is non-binary. I mean. And Republicans are panning him over that one. He has said that God is, and I quote, non-binary, whatever the hell that means. Which now he's been forced to backtrack slightly on, or at least say, you know, I was being provocative with that statement. But what it means is that God can't be defined by human categories. So I think one interesting theme is here is the religious left. For years, Republicans have tried to take over religion and say this is our territory. And Democrats are just secular and godless, liberal and so on.

10:26And we've seen the rise of several Democratic politicians saying, no, actually, there is a way to be on the left and still talk about God and church and religion. My faith teaches me to love my neighbor as myself. Tallarico combines that with a certain economic populism. But the billionaires who own the social media algorithms, who own the cable news networks, who own the politicians fighting on our screens, they want us at each other's throats. I think to his supporters, he has a certain, you know, earnestness. For people who can't see it, would you mind describing your T-shirt here? My T-shirt, it says, I'm a Talafrico. Talafrico, refreshing for Texas. A certain authenticity, I think. He's a straight-up honest guy.

11:20I mean, politicians are going to do what they do, but what other guys are doing is just crooks. He's seen as a breath of fresh air. And in the red corner, there's Ken Paxton, who won the Republican primary to become the party's candidate. Until now, I guess he's sort of been known, I might be making this up, as Teflon Ken. You know, nothing seems to stick. He's sailed through scandal after scandal in his political career. David, can you tell us the top things we need to know about Ken Paxton? Yeah, Ken Paxton, the State Attorney General, who's 63 years old. James Tallarico has described him as the most corrupt politician in Texas history. Quite a claim. Quite. And he does have a very checkered record. This is a man who was

12:13impeached by the Texas State House, by indeed his own party. It was over a scandal involving access to influential people and alleged bribery. ...that he allegedly had a burner phone, used an alias for Uber trips, and made payments to a man previously convicted of fraud. Yeah, just some of the new evidence we pull from thousands of... There's an entire separate case against Ken Paxton over securities fraud. On top of that, Paxton claims to be a very religious man, but had a very public and messy divorce. His ex-wife said that was on biblical grounds. And that following, quote, recent discoveries, she does not believe that her marriage honors God. And certainly voters I interviewed in Texas, often they would praise Tallarico, but they would quickly pivot and also say they just feel Paxton is toxic and tarnished and Texas needs to do better.

13:11And what do you think of Ken Paxton, Republican? Do I have to comment? I can't believe he's still in office after he was impeached. He's the first place. It was primary elections in Texas before we got here. And on the Republican side, it was with the incumbent Senator John Cornyn challenged by Paxton and Trump through his weight behind Paxton, who's been a staunch ally and, for example, backing Trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen. That might prove to be Donald Trump's biggest mistake of this election cycle. Every expert commentator, pundit that I speak to says, if John Cornyn was the Republican nominee here, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. He'd be on a glide path, he would cruise to victory.

14:05But Ken Paxton is way weaker, way more vulnerable. That might be what brings Republicans down. That said, if John Cornyn was here, then I wouldn't get to ask you about Ken Paxton stealing a $1,000 pen. I mean, I know you've done cash for access, big political scandals. But David, can you tell us about the pen? My recollection is Ken Paxton was at a courthouse in Texas and there was your metal detectors and conveyor belt as usual. And as we all know, we take our watches off and put things in the little tray. Somewhere during that process, Ken Paxton spotted that someone else had left a very expensive pen. A thousand dollar Montblanc pen, worth saying. Indeed. Don't we all use those? And instead of handing it in, he coolly pocketed it for himself,

14:54which is really, as ever in the Trump era, a very sort of on-the-nose metaphor for who Ken Paxton is, at least so his critics would say. Vote for James Tallarico. He won't steal your pen. On the subject of Trump, he is reportedly very close to Paxton. I mean, I say this, but I will quote what the president said about him when he was endorsing him. He may not dress right. You might not like the way he dresses. And I say this, it's so insulting to him, but I might as well say it. He may not talk exactly perfectly. You might not love his television interviews. And he may not be the best looking guy I've ever seen. You might not like the talk exactly perfectly. You might not love his television interviews. And he may not be the best looking guy I've ever seen.

15:26You might not like the way he looks. You might not love his look. And, you know, we should say that Paxton had a severe eye injury when he was 12 and required several rounds of surgery as a result. And yet, anyway, this is Trump's full-throated endorsement of him. As you said, Trump also held this unusual midterm convention over the summer in Dallas, which is the beating heart of Texas. David, is that relationship, given Trump's current unpopularity, is it doing Paxton any favours? Not much, I don't think. It is extraordinary when even an endorsement comes with those caveats. You'd hate to be Trump's enemy, but I think the endorsement helps in the primary race. It may actually be a turnoff. It might actually be

16:14hurting Ken Paxton because Trump is toxic. And you see that in opinion polls. Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate in the closely watched Texas Senate race, can be heard complaining President Trump's recent midterm convention in Dallas hurt Republican campaigns, including his own. When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. I think of all U.S. presidents in history, Trump is the second most unpopular after Harry Truman going into midterms. His approval rating is down to 32, 33 percent. Some Republican candidates actively want Trump to stay away from their district or state because they think he will hurt them more than help. So, David, you were at a couple of Tallawico events. What has his campaign looked like?

17:11One morning, I went to a community centre in Austin. There were people queuing up to vote, and as you can imagine, a buzz of excitement when the word came, James Tallawico is coming to vote here. A couple of black limousines drove up, journalists ran after him. Tallarico emerged, gave a polite greeting and then he had to stand in the queue along with everyone else, waiting for his turn to vote. Then he emerged and stood at a microphone. Thank you guys. Thank you all for being here. Talked to reporters about the David and Goliath struggle that his campaign has, but his belief that people power is going to do it over big money in this election. Beat the most corrupt politician in Texas and take back our state.

18:10So thank you all for being here. I appreciate it. He's framed this election as being about the wealthy who own everything versus the rest of society. That is a very current theme in American politics right now, especially in Texas with these big tech companies. Tallarico and many other Democrats are coming down quite hard on data centers and saying there needs to be much closer scrutiny, much tighter regulation stopping this issue where data centers just sprout up in a community. I met a mother in Adelaide who built her dream home with her husband within a data center popped up across the street. Now her little boy wakes up in the middle of the night and thinks it's day because the light's shining through his bedroom window.

18:57So, David, one thing Talaweco has been particularly strong on is his opposition to the donations of one particular Texas resident, namely Elon Musk, who to all intents and purposes is funding the Paxton campaign. David, what is going on there? And how do you go up against the richest, arguably most obnoxious man in the world? So the rally I went to, he did take off the gloves as well and was notable just how much he concentrated on the tech elites, including Elon Musk, who is a significant figure in Texas. He basically said this election is about whether you want a senator who serves you or who serves their billionaire megawatts. And Ted Baxter has the ultimate megawatt. Elon Musk is trying to buy. Even though in many ways the stars have a line for Democrats in this campaign, they still

19:52face a huge uphill struggle. Republicans are bringing in voter suppression efforts, closing polling places, making people travel further. And then there was this absolute deluge of cash, including $158 million from Elon Musk alone. And people I spoke to there really felt that this is existential for the current tech elite. These tech entrepreneurs really, really fear this. And right now, maybe having meetings behind closed doors, how do we stop James Tallarico? And a lot of that Musk money pouring into the Republican campaign has been spent on attack ads. James Tallarico is weird. Very weird. There are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six. And you've got Vice President J.D. Vance, who's making homophobic quips suggesting that Tallarico is gay.

20:46Before we get started, I love you too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Tallarico. And it does all seem quite desperate. And then, you know, they had this thing where Tallarico got a bout of the flu, and that seemed to be a gift to their campaign. David, can you tell us what happened there? Yeah, I mean, they did have this issue at the end of September, I think Tallarico came down with flu. He attended a virtual event, said, sorry, I can't be there in person. I don't want to spread this around. And then he disappeared off the campaign trail. I think it was for about nine days. Which isn't heard of really at this point in the campaign. It certainly was unusual,

21:31yes. And his campaign certainly could be criticised for leaving a vacuum there, sort of failing to explain where he was and what he was doing. And of course, nature abhors a vacuum. Politics loves to fill a vacuum with speculation and rumour and gossip. And of course, Republicans seized on this. Where is James Tallarico? Donald Trump at a rally in Texas had a go at it, suggesting without evidence that James Tallarico is vegan. And he tried to eat meat for political reasons to show his manliness and fallen very ill because of it. Throwing up all over the place. But that's what happened. He ate it and then he was seen running backstage to a room and throwing up all over the place. He doesn't like meat. And then someone online, you know, up to the ante by suggesting, no, actually,

22:26I've got evidence Tallarico has checked into a mental health facility in Ohio. And of course, the way the internet works, that was everywhere within hours. Why did he totally evaporate for 12 days? I don't buy any of it. And in the situation in Ohio, we got to have the Ohio, the center has got to turn over the woman that gave the recording. We need to hear from her. Why would she say that? Now, she might. And then was thoroughly debunked by this institution who said, no, Tallarico has never been here. Tallarico himself said, I've never actually been to Ohio in my life. Wow. And on and on it goes. Indeed. And David, not to take this out of the toxic snide arena of politics and, you know, bring it down to the concerns of voters, but when you were talking to people there,

23:19what issues were coming up? Cost of living is number one, I think, in Texas and across the country. People are sick of the high petrol prices, and the Iran war has been a crucial factor in that. They just talk about the difficulty of making ends meet for farmers in Texas and other parts of the country. It's really the cost of diesel and fertilizer that's been very painful. These elections are usually about the economy, and this one probably no different. So in preparing for this episode, I actually read that the Trump administration had had a massive reduction in border crossings from Mexico into Texas. It's been a huge success in those terms. Has that not helped Republicans in Texas? Or is the wider conversation around immigration and specifically around ICE,

24:16is that now actually harming them? It certainly was a high concern for Texans, you know, being a border state. And often it's legal immigrants who are the most concerned about it and Latinos living in that region. And I think that helps explain why we saw a very significant shift in the 2024 presidential election with many Latino voters, especially in the Rio Grande Valley near the border, actually shifting from the Democrats to the Republicans and supporting Donald Trump. And what we've now seen, according to opinion polls, at least, is some buyer's remorse on their part, and many of them potentially shifting back. And I think for two reasons. One, based around immigration, as you say, they feel that ICE, the Immigration Customs and Enforcement, has overreached and been overzealous.

25:13And people in their families or people they know have been rounded up off the streets, sent to detention, potentially deported. That has gone down very badly with many Latino communities in Texas and elsewhere. And then the second reason is, again, the economy and cost of living. There are many Latino small businessmen and women who really felt that Trump could be good for them economically. Their businesses may be struggling now more than ever due to the Iran war and due to tariffs especially. So many of them I think now regret supporting Trump and they're ready to come back to the democratic fold. Coming up, can we finally, finally start thinking about a time post-Trump? Hey, this is Penn and Kim Holderness from Laugh Lines. Some travelers want the charm of an independent hotel.

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27:32David, what other races should we be keeping an eye on next week when the results start coming in? I will certainly be watching Michigan. Could be the first Muslim senator in history, could be? Exactly, yes. And also figure of the left, aggressive in Abdul Al-Said. And I think Democrats everywhere are watching that as a potential test case, given that Michigan is a swing state. If Abdul Al-Said wins, then that is a green light for progressives and democratic socialists to run for president in 2028. And the stock of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez goes up as a viable contender. And there are lots of other interesting races too. Recently, I was in Kansas, of all places, for a Trump campaign rally. No Democrat has won a Senate seat there for 94 years.

28:22Wow, okay. When Herbert Hoover was president. So that's one to watch on election night. If that one falls to the Democrats, then you really know that Donald Trump is in big trouble. Speaking of which, David, Trump has consistently told voters to act like he is on the ballot. But now I want you to pretend I'm on the ballot because if you go out... Which is an interesting strategy given how unpopular he is. But it doesn't look great for him, does it? And the prospect of Trump being humiliated seems a scary one because who knows what he'll do or where he'll bomb if he's upset enough. And in your view, what would it mean for his presidency and the rest of the world if he ends up losing heavily on Tuesday? Yeah, it will be a major blow to Donald Trump's presidency. This will be the first really major

29:09national verdict of the voters on how is his second term going. And it could be quite scathing. The opinion polls suggest he's going to do very badly and that actually his claim, imagine that I'm on the ballot, is actually going to backfire horribly. I mean, Democrats are saying, yes, bring that on. You know, the more Trump is there, the more people will vote against him. So on a technical level, it'll mean Congress has more muscle to impose checks and balances on Trump, can expect Democrats to launch various investigations into the Trump corruption, the origins of the Iran war, you know, hold committee hearings, try and subpoena White House officials, maybe members of Trump's family. Democrats will debate, you know,

29:58should they impeach Donald Trump for a third time? However, you know, I'm not sure Donald Trump will go quietly. And I'm not sure he'll welcome the fact that I think the day after the midterms, we will immediately be into a conversation about the 2028 presidential election, which by the Constitution excludes him. He's not the kind of guy to willingly take a backseat and say, okay, now I'm going to anoint a successor. And certainly there are those who believe the two years remaining could be the most treacherous of all. Donald Trump is like a wounded animal. He'll feel power slipping away. He'll be more tempted than ever to lash out, to still dominate the headlines, to still make it all about him. And there may be nothing more

30:41dangerous than a reckless Donald Trump who feels he has nothing to lose. It's a terrifying prospect. David, thank you so much for your time. Great to be here. Thank you. That was David Smith, Washington Bureau Chief for The Guardian. My thanks to him. You can follow all of our election coverage, including the live blog at theguardian.com. And just before we go, if you enjoy this episode, maybe you'd consider leaving us a review. We love to hear what you think of the show, and it helps other people find us. If you'd prefer to correspond with us in private, there's also an email address just for you. And it is tiff, that's t-i-f dot questions at theguardian.com. Send us a question, a suggestion for an episode,

31:25or, you know, ideas on who you'd like to hear from next. And that's it for today. This episode was produced by Ivor Manley and Hannah Aydan. It was presented by me, Noshi Nickbar. Sound design is by Ross Burns and the executive producer was Sammy Kent. We'll be back in your feeds this afternoon with the latest. This is The Guardian. 500 orders a month was manageable. 5,000 is madness. Embrace intelligent order fulfillment with ShipStation, the only platform combining order management, warehouse workflows, inventory, returns, and analytics in one place. What used to take five separate tools, ShipStation does in one. Automate fulfillment and rate shopping to ship up to 15 times more with up to 90% savings.

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