What did the final Times/Siena polls show for the 2026 Senate races?

The last Times/Siena batch before the 2026 midterms, released on a Sunday night, showed Democrats ahead in seven Senate races: Abdul El-Sayed up 11 in Michigan, James Talarico up 7 in Texas, Troy Jackson up 6 in Maine, Sherrod Brown up 5 in Ohio, Adam Hamilton up 5 in Kansas, Mary Peltola up 2 in Alaska and Josh Turek up 1 in Iowa. The hosts said the numbers felt almost too good to trust.

• Nate Silver's averages were tighter, with El-Sayed up just under five and Paxton trailing by about three and a half.
• Alaska was the only race in the batch where the Democratic margin had narrowed since the previous Times poll.
• The polls also showed late-deciding voters breaking toward Republicans by about nine points.

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Pod Save America (2026-11-03). Read the whole episode summary →

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