On with Kara Swisher · · Transcript & summary by WhipScribe
A former presidential nominee walks through the closest 2026 Senate and governor races a week out and explains what each result would signal.
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“The Serbian election proved that if you combine your discontent and your grievances with actual political action, you can make a difference.” Hillary Clinton · at 8:29 — open in the transcript →
“Paxton will be representing the great state of Musk, not the great state of Texas if he's elected.” Hillary Clinton · at 26:38 — open in the transcript →
Most of the hour is a race-by-race scouting report. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53 to 47 edge, Hillary Clinton gives Abdul El-Sayed the edge over Mike Rogers in Michigan, calls James Talarico a generational talent against Ken Paxton in Texas, says Susan Collins may finally be at the end of the road in Maine, and expects Mary Peltola to win in Alaska despite a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the ballot. She argues the 36 governor contests matter just as much, because governors shape congressional maps and run the 2028 election, and she singles out Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Amy Acton in Ohio and Gina Hinojosa in Texas.
Running underneath every race is Clinton's worry about money and lies. Elon Musk's roughly $190 million for Paxton, Vivek Ramaswamy's $4 million ad featuring Acton's estranged mother and the effort to tie El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood all read to her as the same playbook that buried her own 2016 campaign under Pizzagate and online conspiracies. Looking back at that race, she says her real mistake was not confronting James Comey head-on.
Kara Swisher frames the stakes and Clinton widens the lens. Serbia and Brazil show, in her telling, that protest only pays off when it becomes organizing, candidates and, for Lula, TikTok. A House majority, she says, must arrive with a day-one agenda on affordability and corruption. And if Republicans lose badly she expects Donald Trump to blame others, demand more loyalty and take bigger risks abroad.
Former Secretary of State, senator and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee who co-hosts the High Stakes series with Kara Swisher. She says her current work at the Clinton Policy Institute focuses on state-level policy such as regulating social media and AI.
Hillary Clinton told Kara Swisher that both results carry lessons for the United States. In Serbia, young protesters who had been in the streets for years organized politically, ran candidates and beat the Russia-aligned Vucic government, and Vucic conceded early. In Brazil, Lula finished second in the first round, then won the runoff by organizing more deeply around big cities like Rio and by going on TikTok and Instagram for the first time, which she says turned out 10 million more voters.
Hillary Clinton calls Democrat James Talarico a generational talent and Republican Ken Paxton a deeply flawed candidate, citing the case John Cornyn made against Paxton in the primary. She warns that Elon Musk's roughly $190 million for Paxton and Texas's right-wing media machine could still pull out a win, and says the race shows why the Roberts court's campaign finance rulings should be undone by constitutional amendment.
Hillary Clinton gives Abdul El-Sayed the edge over Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, calling him a smart communicator who is strong with young voters on digital media. His challenges, she says, are older voters, Black voters and older Jewish voters around Detroit, plus reassuring independents. She condemns the effort by Rogers' allies and Trump to link El-Sayed, a Muslim, to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Hillary Clinton thinks the Maine race against Troy Jackson may be the end of the road for Susan Collins, saying Collins positions herself as independent but usually votes with Trump, and that Trump's tariff exemptions for some Canadian imports will not protect Maine for long. In Alaska she expects Democrat Mary Peltola to win, and calls Trump's order for a Justice Department suit over a second candidate named Dan Sullivan a message lawsuit, since the state Supreme Court already allowed him to run.
Hillary Clinton says the 36 governor races matter because governors shape congressional maps when states redistrict after each census, which is why Trump pressed Greg Abbott to find more seats in Texas. Governors also oversee the 2028 election and lead on issues Washington ignores, such as regulating social media and AI and keeping phones out of schools, the work her Clinton Policy Institute does with states.
Hillary Clinton called Vivek Ramaswamy's $4 million ad featuring Amy Acton's mother, estranged from her for 40 years, vile and untrue, and faulted J.D. Vance for standing by it given his own childhood with an abusive mother. She says the ad reflects a Trump-era playbook of lying and gaslighting, and urges outgoing Governor Mike DeWine, who condemned the ad and once put Acton in charge of Ohio's COVID response, to say he will not vote for Ramaswamy.
Hillary Clinton says she wishes she had confronted FBI Director James Comey directly in 2016, challenging what she calls his breach of Justice Department norms against interfering in elections. She hesitated to pick a fight with the head of the FBI and now says she was the do-right person for too long. She adds that people had been voting for 10 days after Comey's intervention, and that her internal polling and Barack Obama both told her she would win.
Hillary Clinton predicts Donald Trump will not accept a loss as a verdict, instead saying he was not on the ballot and blaming disloyal Republicans. If the defeat is large, she expects him to become more unhinged and dangerous, likely launching more attacks on Iran and demanding even greater loyalty, while a Democratic Congress investigates his administration and Republicans begin to break away from a lame-duck president.
Our own transcript of the public episode, with a timestamp about every 90 seconds. Tap a timestamp or the link button on a paragraph to copy a link that opens this page there.
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1:46Just go to indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. I think you in prison, Cara, would be a reality show that I would sign up to watch. Hi, everyone. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Hillary Clinton. And happy birthday to you. Thank you, Cara. I'm in Japan celebrating my birthday, among other things. What are you doing? You're going for whiskey, I assume, if it's Hillary Clinton. the Premium Imperiality, which is this incredible program where the Japan Art Association and the Imperial household give out what are kind of the equivalent of the Nobel Prizes to the arts.
2:53Did you do anything fun fun? Like, I mean, that sounds fun and very worthy. That sounds worthy. No, well, you and I have talked about this, that, you know, part of what we're trying to do with our podcast and so much else is to close the fund deficit in America. Right. Because it's been pretty grim the last couple of years. So, yeah. And I had a fabulous birthday dinner with a bunch of friends at one of my favorite restaurants in Tokyo. I know the name of it. What is it? It's called the Blind Donkey. And that is not a political comment. That's great. Wow. It was so much. Next time you're in Tokyo, I want you to go. You know, I lived there for a short time period. I did a fellowship. I didn't know that.
3:30Yes, I loved it right after my son Louie was born. And I loved it. And I just loved living in Tokyo. I thought it was the best experience. It's a fabulous city. It really is. We could learn a lot from how they organize themselves and how they provide services. I wish we would humble ourselves enough to learn how some other countries actually produce really good public transport and enough housing in a city of 20 million plus people. Yeah. Korea, South Korea is similar. I mean, there's a lot of really great ideas across the globe. That's great. You're globetrotting. In other words, back here at home, Elon Musk threatened my life. I shouldn't laugh. Hillary, speaking of Japan, you need to get me a sword because I have to be in a sword fight with him. You need to get me a
4:16nice sharp blade. I'm going to get you a samurai sword because you're a warrior queen, right? I know you're on the receiving end of all these kind of things, but I got to tell you, it gets old pretty quick. It gets old. You know, these guys, you know, they can't win arguments. I don't think can win as many elections as they believe. And so they threaten people and they intimidate people and they are constantly in your face. And I'm sick of it. I'm tired of the cruelty and the bullying. And we've got to, you know, begin to turn it around starting next Tuesday. Any tips? Any tips to have to deal? He also said, I was going to prison. I was thinking, I'll put in to be with you because, you know, you're Locker Up.
4:57Yeah. No, look, I think you and I, again, we could, you know, have a good time because I get threatened practically every day. Locker Up, as you know, was kind of a popular chant. Yeah, I heard that. I heard that. I heard about that. We would totally run the prison. We would run the yard. We would like be the tough ones, don't you think? Just run the place. Yeah, I think you in prison, Carol, would be a reality show that I would sign up to watch. Walt Mossberg, whom you know, is my longtime partner many years ago, said the only way I'm going to prison is if I'm interviewing Elon Musk there. That's what he said. Not that I want him. I mean, nobody should go to prison. It is sort of a backhanded compliment that he pays so much attention to you and threatens
5:43you when you say things that are truthful. So I guess I don't know. It's really not great. It's not a great thing. And I don't know how you do it day after day. Anyway, welcome to our new show. By the way, I didn't introduce it from Vox Media Podcast Network High Stakes, but we've got a lot to get to. And thank you for calling in from Japan on your birthday. I really appreciate it. But it's critical, Hillary. People want to hear what you have to say. So less than a week to go until Election Day with control of Congress on the line. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and House by a handful of seats. Flip either one. The Trump's last two years look very different. So today we're giving you a midterm preview.
6:18Next week, we'll be talking about the results of the Senate, the House and the governors who will run the 2028 election. But first, Madam Secretary, I want you to get your take, this happened today, to get your take on the international elections in Brazil and Serbia, especially Serbia. The strongman in Serbia, very close ally of Putin, as Orban was, lost and conceded. Bolsonaro Jr. in Brazil lost and won't concede. Obviously, his father's in jail, and one of his things was getting him out. And Lula won. So talk a little bit about just days before the midterms. Which of these two looks more like the United States? And by the way, we're recording this before Israel votes. And I'd love to know what you think is going to happen there. You know, Cara, I was
6:59really impressed by both Serbia and Brazil, but for different reasons. Okay. The protests in Serbia against the Vucic government, the authoritarian government that has been increasingly oppressive and increasingly aligned with Russia, has been the subject of a lot of political protests by largely young people. They have been in the streets for a couple of years, off and on, you know, basically demanding more rights, demanding more of a commitment to turn toward Europe and away from Russia, you know, looking for more economic and educational opportunities. And they organized, you know, they didn't just go into the streets and protest. They organized politically and put together candidates that challenged the authoritarian government and actually won.
7:52They won the election. And to Vucic's credit, he conceded early because he knew that he'd lost. He didn't pull a Trump ploy to try to stay in power. He recognized that he had been turned out by the people. Like in Hungary and other places. Yeah, like Hungary. Yeah. So I think that the example in Serbia is, you know, nonviolent protests demonstrating over an agenda of change that you want to see in your country, but combining it with political action is not enough just to go out in the streets and protest. Are you going to have a political party? Are you going to run candidates? And, you know, the Serbian election proved that if you combine your discontent and your grievances with actual political action, you can make a difference. The Lula election is a little
8:40different and it's fascinating. You know, he came in second to the, you know, Bolsonaro Jr. In the runoff, right? Yeah. And then went to a runoff. And what I loved about this runoff is two things happened. It woke up Lula and his party because, you know, they lost in the first round and they had to get their act together. And they did it in a couple of ways. They did it by really organizing more deeply and widely, particularly in and around the big cities like Rio and all the rest. And they really did reach out to voters and make their case. But the other thing that happened is Lua went on social media, something he had not done before. He had kind of resisted being a social media character.
9:26He's an old-fashioned politician. I think he turns 81 or something this week. You know, more power to him because what he did was to combine organizing, deep, broad organizing with communications. And he literally was on TikTok and Instagram, and people were so shocked to see him and his allies doing dances and songs and making appeals. And they turned out 10 million more voters. So I think there are lessons from both of these elections, not just for us, but for people who want change all over the world. Right. Now, listen, in Brazil, Bolsonaro Jr. is not conceding. And Trump, of course, is saying there is something fishy going. He's not quite committing to the bit yet, but he's certainly raising the idea of election fraud.
10:12Right. Well, you know, that's their go-to argument whenever they lose an election. Yeah, when they win, it's I won. When they lose, it's the lose-fix. When they win, everything's fine with the elections. When they lose, ah, the elections were. Something happened to upset the predicted victory for them and their allies. So I really feel like what we've got here is a great example of, but stand up to Trump and candidates that Trump endorses and stop the kind of slide toward Trumpism in Latin America. And it proved to be pretty effective, obviously. Right. And what do you mean it's going to happen? Because you've got a conservative Congress. So it's very conservative. Obviously, the Bolsonaros aren't going away.
11:01The sun is obviously going to continue to be an irritant. The stock market's, you know, dropped rather precipitously. What happens in places? And also what happens in Serbia? Does this devolve into chaos? Because it could, right? You could have a movement and then you win and you're like the dog that caught the car. Well, we don't know. I mean, Hungary certainly stabilized after... But that was a stable politician who had been in office. I mean, he had been an experienced. Well, yes, but it wasn't clear exactly what would happen next and what kind of rear guard actions Orban and his party might be attempting. And, you know, they've stabilized. They're beginning to pass legislation and seemingly to govern effectively.
11:43We're going to have to wait and see in Serbia, but I'm optimistic that the planning that went in to the political victory will manifest itself in governance. And in Brazil, now that Lula has recognized the importance of digital organizing and communicating, if he continues that while governing and he keeps the people involved so they don't get shut out and becomes a right-left fight again, Lula and his government against a Congress that is very negative about his agenda and a Supreme Court that intervenes from time to time. But instead, if Lula takes the lessons that he learned in this runoff and he basically keeps the people with him, like, here's what we're trying to do. Here is the case we're trying to make.
12:34Here's what it will mean to your life. It could be quite a different kind of reaction than I think we might have expected. And what does that do for Putin in this case? He's lost two really strong allies in the area. You know, it made me think of the situation that I found when I went to Egypt after Mubarak was forced to resign. And these young people had been in the streets and they had been so forceful in their demands for change and that the dictator must go. And then I went to meet with them in a, you know, big room, about 30, 40 people there who had led the, what they called the Facebook revolution at that time. And I said, great, okay, you have toppled the dictator. Now, are you going to form
13:18a political party? Are you going to run for office? And their response was, oh no, we don't do that. I said, well, if you don't do that, you're going to be ruled by either one of the two organized groups in Egypt, namely the Muslim Brotherhood or the army. And they couldn't see their way to politics. So the difference in Serbia, I hope, is that these young people didn't just protest and demand change. They have an agenda. They have, you know, a political party and plan, and let's hope that they can carry through. Right. And both of them are blows to Donald Trump, both of these. Now, Israel. Yes. Another place that's about. Now, prediction? You know, I am really hoping that the Netanyahu coalition does not get to the number of votes that they need in the
14:09Knesset to form a government. And that Eisenkot and allies that are against Netanyahu, that is their uniting reason, they're against Netanyahu and the way he has governed Israel, can get in this election the 61 votes they need in the Knesset to form a government. I think it's going to be... That's the issue. It's going to be really hard, Cara, because there are personalities that, you know, are vying to become prime minister. There are coalitions that are kind of dicey about whether they get put together or not. So we have to wait and see. I hope that the coalition, and when I say coalition, it's not a formal coalition, but the parties against Netanyahu come together and agree to govern. You're worried. You sound worried.
15:00I am worried because— Because this is where Netanyahu always comes up the middle, right? This is what he always does because it's— Well, he is a wily politician. I mean, I think he's done... Right, it's like a chess match. He's done great damage to Israel and to the Israel-American relationship, as we all know. But you never can count him out. And he's willing to make alliances with anybody, no matter how odious their politics might be, in order to stay in power. And one of the things that could happen is nobody gets enough votes. And so there's a caretaker government. And sadly, Netanyahu stays in power until they have another election, which, you know, might happen sometime next year. So this is really up in the air. And we're not going to know until
15:42we see what happens from the votes. A lot of Americans who have the right to vote in Israel are flying home to vote because they don't have something that we have, thankfully, like mail-in ballots, absentee voting. They have to vote in person. So literally, Israelis are flying in from all over the world to be able to vote. So I can't predict how it's going to turn out. I know what I want to see happen. There's been a lot of protests and rallies. Yeah. I'm very impressed with Eisenkot and with the way that he's conducted himself. He's a general. He's not a politician. He lost both his son and his nephew. I mean, he knows what's at stake. Yeah. He's not like the most, like, he's not like, Netanyahu's very charismatic.
16:30This guy is just like meat and potatoes. Well, Netanyahu's, you know, he is a very effective politician. That's why he's been in power for so many years off and on. And I think it's done great damage as he's gotten more and more focused on himself personally, the threats from the criminal corruption trials and, you know, all that he's facing, the threat of a truly independent commission to try to figure out exactly what happened before October 7th and on October 7th, you know, just things that he wants to avoid because he never wants to be held accountable. No, no, not at all. Yeah, he once again can push up the middle. We'll see. But the trend is not for him at this point, at least in the U.S. elections, that's for sure. And let's start with that. Let's start with the Senate. Republicans enter the midterms with 53 to 47 majority and Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Cook Political Report shows seven races as toss ups, estimating Democrats will pick up two to six seats. I want to focus on three of the closest races to get your take, and we've
17:25talked about them before. First off, Michigan, it's Dr. Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said if Abdul can win in Michigan, anyone can win anywhere. She told the donors that a win would break open the entire political calculus of America. El-Sayed has two sources of money, progressive small donors and the party establishment Super PAC. I was in Michigan this weekend with my son. It was parents weekend and my oldest son was there, came also. And Megan, my ex-wife, came and we went to a game at the big house. All the signs were for Abdul and it said, you know, vote, vote blue, vote Abdul. You know, I mean, it was really interesting. I saw no Mike Rogers things.
18:08There was no anger. University of Michigan is not as progressive. It's very mixed, interestingly. There wasn't even that much back and forth between the Indiana fans and the Michigan fans. Indiana won, by the way. But it was interesting because there was a lot of energy for him. And maybe this wasn't the right crowd, but you'd think it would be a good crowd crowd for Mike Rogers too. Oh, I don't think so. Not on a university campus. I know that, you know, not just students go to the game and you and Megan were there. Obviously there's others who attend, but I think that El-Sayed should do very well in the university communities. He did in the primary. Yeah, he's a Wolverine too. Yep. And he is a Wolverine and he proudly claims that. So look, I think that he is a very good
18:54candidate. He is a really smart, effective communicator. And he has pivoted on a few things both during the primary and then especially after the primary in order to reach a, you know, potentially broader electorate. It is still a very close race depending upon what poll you look at because much of Michigan, you know, has been traditionally Republican. Mike Rogers kind of looks and talks and acts like somebody that places in rural Michigan, Western Michigan, Upper Peninsula, et cetera, you know, feel comfortable with. So I think El-Sayed has the edge going into the election and, you know, let's cross our fingers. I mean, do you ever look at some of the message and think, well, I could have done that. That
19:43was interesting. You look and you study and you try to learn from. It's a totally different time. I mean, 10 years seems like 10 lifetimes in the way politics has changed. He's an effective communicator on digital media. He's done all kinds of dances and messaging, which, as we were just talking about with Lula in Brazil, it matters. He has a big following among young voters. I think his main challenges are older voters, Black voters who are still somewhat holding off from what the polls seem to suggest, Jewish voters, and particularly older Jewish voters, in particularly Detroit and the larger Detroit area. He has to pull together not only the Democratic coalition that wins races in Michigan, like Gretchen Whitmer and Jocelyn Benson,
20:40who's running for governor, who's way ahead of her opponent, do. But he's got to really reassure independent voters and others who are, you know, still questioning. Can they vote for him? They might have one bone to pick. Is that enough, you know, to let the Senate not go in the right direction, namely a Democratic majority? So we'll see. Rodgers is interesting because he was on some of those shows and he's like, wouldn't say he was MAGA. It was interesting. He's sort of trying to go left in an interesting way. Well, go center anyway. Center, yeah. But he's also now, and his surrogates and a lot of the independent expenditure media is really fear-mongering against al-Sayed as a Muslim, trying to link him to the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump is doing that too. Yeah, Trump is doing that. And I'm just tired of that. And I
21:31hope people are tired of that. Judge somebody on who they are, what they stand for, what they produce. And as my husband said when he was campaigning for David Jolly down in Florida, he said, look, you know, this is not about woke. This is about broke. I mean, that's a tough state to, you know, try to get a Democrat elected in. So we're fighting on all fronts against what are the tried and true tactics of the Republicans. You know, if you can't win on affordability, if you are bankrupting the country and enriching yourself personally, try to divert attention. You know, don't look at what's actually happening. Look at this shiny, you know, object over here and try to get people to not vote their interests,
22:15but vote their fears. It's not shiny, it's Mohammed. Like there's a lot on social media, people should pay attention. Like they have a young woman where she's like, well, he's not saying his middle name, which is Mohammed. And he's like, well, what's Mike Rogers' middle name? And she goes, that doesn't matter. And it was really interesting. Like, and of course, this is a Trump, Trump is doing it right now. It's because, you know, Barack Hussein Obama, that kind of stuff. This is not like, I was like, really, they're doing the Mohammed thing or the Hussein Obama thing. But Cara, it's worked for them in so many different cases. And so they're not going to give up on a strategy that's worked. It's whether or not people either have moved on or they're saying, wait a minute, you're
22:53not talking about what is important to me. You're still talking about stuff that was, you know, your campaign, you know, two years, four years, eight years ago. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, I don't know Mike Rogers. I don't know your middle name. What is your middle name? My middle name is Diane. What? I didn't know that. Diane. Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton. Yeah, you got it. Oh, my God. What's your middle name? Do you have a middle name? Anne. It's why I was Anne. I'm going to start calling you Kara Anne whenever we talk about the South. Please don't. Please. No, thank you. No, actually, my family's from West Virginia. So there it is. I had a lot of Southern type voices in my life early.
23:29All right. Let's go to Texas. Democrat James Calarico versus Ken Paxton, the world's worst candidate. He's the Republican. Emerson polling has a two in a dead heat. And Elon Musk is pouring money into support Paxton. He's losing his mind on social media. If Texas flips, that's because the Democrats built something new there, or is it because Republicans nominated a bad candidate? We'll get into that in a second. But Elon has spent about $190 million just in Texas supporting Paxton. Tallarico has broken records with grassroots small donor fundraising. He's making a big deal about Elon, too. He's saying Texas is not for sale, not to this crazy billionaire, essentially. For comparison, Kamala outraged Trump and lost after
24:11Musk and the super PACs flooded the zone. You have talked about this. Is that a replay of 2024? Could a candidate beat that kind of outside money? And this money, this enormous amount of money from one of its citizens, Elon Musk, who was worried about Democrats running a state that he ran to for tax reasons and other reasons. Well, it's one of the many reasons we need to amend the Constitution and get rid of these horrible campaign finance rulings by the Roberts Supreme Court. And that's something I'm going to be pushing as hard as I can, because this kind of money is, you know, corrupting, distorting elections. And yet we know they spend the money because they have a track record of seeing it make a difference.
24:53And so I wouldn't discount the potential of pulling victory from the jaws of defeat for Paxton, who is a truly flawed human being as well as a flawed candidate. In fact, some of the best arguments against him were made in the primary against him by Senator John Cornyn, who basically said, how can you nominate this guy? On every possible basis, he is a criminal, he's an immoral guy, he does illegal things. I mean, the whole package of Paxton has certainly given- Yeah, he's an unctuous fella. Yeah, it's given Tallarico a good position to run from. There's no doubt about that. However, Texas has a deep right-wing infrastructure. They do. And it's, I'm sure as we are speaking, churning out, you know, so much
25:48miss and disinformation online, as well as on traditional media to scare people into either voting for Paxton or having doubts about whether to vote for Tallarico. I think Tallarico is a generational talent. You know, I watched him. I know him. I feel, you know, very impressed by how he has handled himself. Again, it's a really close race. There's a bunch of Republicans backing him, quite a few, like all over the place. I think for two reasons. I think they know Paxton and they know how corrupt he is and how he literally is bought and paid for by whoever's, you know, dangling the money in front of him. The latest will be Musk. How can you ever rein in Elon Musk with all of his problems with his various companies
26:38and his behavior if you have bought and paid for Musk senators? You know, Paxton will be representing the great state of Musk, not the great state of Texas if he's elected. A lot of behavior if you have bought and paid for Musk senators. You know, Paxton will be representing the great state of Musk, not the great state of Texas if he's elected. A lot of Republicans understand that. The great state of Musk. Oh, think about that. It was smell. Musk. I think the more Republicans who either whisper quietly they're voting for Tallarico or they can't support Paxton, so they're just not going to vote in that race. Whatever their messaging can be in this last week is really important. Texas, if you had the voting turnout from young people, black and brown people who are eligible citizens, I will add,
27:20if you had that kind of turnout, Texas would already be trending blue. And is this the race to get people to go register and vote against the corrupt Texas establishment? I hope so, because there's so much more that Texas should be doing. I mean, they have made just a series of bad decisions on their, you know, way they treat natural disasters, how they deal with education and health care. I mean, so, you know, the existing Republican incumbents in Texas need to be turned out and Texas needs new leadership and Tallarico would be terrific. Yeah, because they do. They're Musk's servants. They're butlers for Musk, whether it's the governor, Greg Abbott, or the senators, they're all in the interest of Musk and not for the people.
28:07And I think Tallarico's pushed on that button quite well. And he's done it on social media. His ads are very positive about Texas. And some of them are negative about Paxton because he's such a layup. But a lot of his in-person stuff is very much like... Have you met him, Cara? I have. I met him at South by Southwest this year. He's very appealing. He's a real unique talent. I call him Baby Jesus. I don't know if you know that. I do. He didn't like it. He's like, you shouldn't call me that. And I said, do you want me to call you BJ? And he said, no. That's kind of blasphemous, Cara. I know. And then he never called me back. So that was the end of that. So but good luck, James. I think he's a real unique talent. He's so articulate about it. Very hopeful. Very much so. And he does push back. You know, he's a different than I'll say it because like you said, the DSA, the DSA, they're not neither of them are DSA, but the more progressive side is very different from each other in a way that's really interesting. That's why you can't lump it all together.
29:06And I really hope voters understand that. We're electing individuals who have their own records, their own experience and backgrounds and their own view on how to get to universal health care coverage, for example. Right. For example, we're going to move on to Maine. I have to say, the woman who never goes away, she's like a barnacle, Susan Collins, Senator versus Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. President Trump just tried to boost Collins by granting tariff exemptions for some Canadian imports and polling has her and Jackson in another dead heat. Both candidates are against tariffs. Would this help Collins? And, you know, tariffs can be lifted when the senator needs help, but other states still have to pay them. What does that tell voters? And again,
29:51what is Collins? I mean, she obviously delivers for the state, as you've said before, but are they ready for change in Maine? I mean, will Susan finally get dumped? Because she never does. I mean, she does have nine lives. There's no doubt about it. And you got to give her credit because she, you know, she survives politically. But this may be the end of the road. You know, the idea that Trump would lift some tariffs with Canada. I mean, I always think about my late great friend, Maya Angelou. You know, when somebody shows you who they are, believe them and believe them the first time. Don't have to be convinced over and over again. Trump loves tariffs. And if anybody in Maine thinks that somehow Maine is going to be exempt from tariffs because, you know, Trump decided
30:36that was one way to help Susan Collins get reelected, they're just living in a dream world. And I do think that a lot of the tried and true support for Collins was because people saw her as a kind of independent voice for Maine. But she has not used that voice effectively. In one of her debates, Susan Collins said, well, you know, I voted against it, you know, but yeah, she voted against it when it was clear it was going to win anyway. I mean, she is always trying to position herself as standing up, being an independent vote on behalf of the people of Maine. But when it really comes to it, she more often than not, you know, votes with Trump. And I think people in Maine, they've seen the results of being for Trump.
31:22And hopefully, you know, they're going to say, wait, thank you so much, Susan. Here's your gold watch. But we want somebody else representing us in Washington. Right. So last one, Alaska. Alaska's Senate race has two Republicans named Dan Sullivan. I know, it makes me laugh too. One is the incumbent, the real Democrat, Mary Peltola, is a former congresswoman and slightly ahead. Trump says he's ordered the Justice Department to sue so that if Alaska can't certify the result if Senator Sullivan loses narrowly because of the names. I don't know why that's a popular name in Alaska. I have no idea. What is he doing here? Most people don't think they'll prevail. But is he laying the groundwork to overturn the election he doesn't like? Will it work? How do you look at it? I think she's going to win.
32:06Boy, I hope so. I think she is a great candidate. And, you know, when she was in the Congress, she suffered the terrible personal loss of her husband dying right in the middle of her term. She has proven herself to be, you know, a champion for Alaska. She's indigenous, native Alaskan. She likes fish. She likes fish. And you know what? That's really important in Alaska. It is. The state Supreme Court has already ruled that there's nothing wrong with a man whose real name is Dan Sullivan running, if that's what he chooses to do. He's not disqualified just because somebody else has that name. This is another Hail Mary desperate measure. I think the message that, you know, the Trump Justice Department was trying to send was don't waste your vote because I'm going to win.
32:56You know, it's like heads I win, tails you lose. Because if the wrong Dan Sullivan tips the balance against the right Dan Sullivan, I'm going to file to prevent the certification of Mary Peltola. And at the end of the day, I don't think this is a credible lawsuit. I think it was a message lawsuit. And, you know, they throw that Hail Mary, hoping they find a judge somewhere who agrees with them. But I think that it's a close race, but it seems to me to be trending in favor of Mary Beltola. Of her. She just got in a small car accident, by the way, which is too bad. We're going to move on to the House in a second. But of all these races, which one do you think the Republicans have the best shot at? And which one
33:42do the Democrats have the best shot at? They're all so close. You know, most of them are within the margin of error. And we were talking earlier about how much a difference huge expenditures can make in distorting the information ecosystem, getting people to believe things that are totally untrue in order to convince them not to vote for their own interests and not to vote for the candidate they were thinking of because something showed up on their social media feed that causes them to doubt. You can't discount the huge amount of money. And Musk is putting in more than anybody, but he is not alone. There are Democrats who are putting in money, but they are dwarfed by the amount of money coming in from, you know, the Republicans. So we'll see.
34:25They're all within the margin of error. You know, Michael Bumbridge has put in $80 million for the Democrats, but still small compared to what Musk does on a given Tuesday. And I was actually with Reed Hastings. I did an interview with him and I was like, I think you need to put in $80 million because he's been a Democratic donor. He did not take me up on my offer. All right. When we get back, we're going to take a quick break. We're going to talk about what's at stake in the House. Support for this show comes from the Freedom From Religion Foundation. On High Stakes, Hillary and I talk about the choices shaping our democracy. Here's a fundamental one. Who should hold power in America, the people or religion? Our founders created a constitution that bars religious tests for public office.
35:08And the First Amendment protects your freedom to believe or not believe. Yet we're seeing growing efforts to blur the line between religion and government from public schools to public policy. When government takes sides on religion, everyone's freedom is at risk. The Freedom From Religion Foundation works to keep state and church separate. FFRF also stands up for freethinkers, atheists, agnostics, and millions of non-religious Americans whose voices deserve to be heard. Visit ffrf.us slash CARA or text CARA, K-A-R-A, to 511-511 to learn more or to join because promoting democracy means protecting freedom for everyone. Text CARA to 511-511 or go to ffrf.us slash CARA. Text fees may apply. Support for this show comes from Mutual Care Now. You may have heard of the book Bullies, Parasites and Slaves by George Byron Koch,
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37:47Join them and get $500 when your business signs up and starts traveling at InGen.com slash Vox. Madam Secretary, we're back, and we're turning our focus to the House, where the Democrats have a much easier ride. The party has 214 seats and just needs four more. What's interesting is that the battleground has moved into district Republicans thought were safe. Cook Political Report says the competitive map is growing and now includes red districts that were once locks for the GOP. So on election night, what number tells you whether it was a normal midterm or rejection? Is it a red riptide or blue wave? And if Democrats flip seats, Trump won by double digits. That's because voters like Democrats?
38:31Probably not. Or because they're angry about tariffs and prices. And the last question, if Republicans lose the House, the members who survive in swing districts have a choice, stick with Trump or start distancing themselves. And which way would they go? Let's start with those. Well, first of all, I am hoping for a really big margin because it's not enough, in my opinion, just to squeak by and win three, four or five more seats. I want to see 10, 15, 20, 25 seats. And in recent days, some of the analysts have moved more seats into, you know, the lean Democrat column where they had not been before. And I know that the Democrats have expanded their funding into seats that they thought were out of reach before. And the other
39:21ironic development is it looks like a lot of the gerrymandered seats, particularly in Texas, that Trump ordered the Republicans to redistrict to try to favor him may not turn out for the Republicans. And so this is, again, a very volatile situation. I feel really good about us winning the House, but I want to see as big a margin as possible. Because, you know, Carol, look, it's not just about winning, as important as that is. That's a predicate to everything. If you don't win, you can't govern, you can't make change. But we have to have an agenda. And I know that the Democratic leadership, starting with Hakeem Jeffries, is really working hard so that literally on day one, they can start introducing legislation
40:04to deal with affordability, to can start introducing legislation to deal with affordability, to take on corruption, to really send a message that they've got to have action and they've got to have action that they pass through a democratically controlled house. Now, people say, well, what good will that do? Because Trump may veto. On the one hand, it gives you a strong foundation to say this this is what Democrats promised and we delivered, and you got to get rid of the Republicans in the White House and or the Senate in order to get things done, right? Make him do it, essentially. Make him do it. And knowing Trump, there may be some he signs if we can get some of this through the House and the Senate, hopefully. Let me ask
40:42you, if they flip seats by double digits, is it because they like Democrats or just mad? I think probably, Scott calls it, as I said, a red riptide versus a Democratic wave. And then how do Democrats get to the situation where people do like them, right? That they're voting for Democrats, not against Trump. Yeah, they have to produce. I think a lot of the energy in this election is people who have turned against Trump and Republicans because promises were made and promises were not kept. And there have been so many distractions. And in fact, it's the strangest strategy, but Trump has repeatedly mocked those so-called affordability concerns of Americans. I mean, not just, you know, saying the Democrats won't help you, you know, that would be one way of approaching it.
41:33He's basically, well, we're doing great. People are making more money than ever. Look how good it's going. And, you know, that's just contrary to the reality of people's lives. It's what they accuse Biden of, you know, it's what they accuse Biden of. Yeah, I mean, it's a kind of echo of what happened in the Biden administration. But I also think there are some Democratic candidates who are really gaining ground with voters. People are saying, hey, I like the way you talk. I like your toughness. I like what you're saying you're going to do. It still is primarily against Trump and the Republicans, but the Democrats have a real chance if they actually get to governing and passing legislation that could help people to say, you know, we told you we they do lose and he's not busy writing 1300 word pieces
42:25on Bill Maher when he finds the time, does he accept it as a verdict on his presidency? Or does this go back to the Alaska question? Is he called the election rigged? What is your feeling that he'll do? He seems like such a creature that he will just go with whatever the thing is versus pushback. Or maybe he doesn't care. Maybe he doesn't care anymore. Look, I think, I mean, you hear in his speeches on the campaign trail what he's going to do. He's going to say, I wasn't on the ballot. If I'd been on the ballot, the turnout and the results would have been different. So it's not a judgment about me and my presidency. It's a judgment about these Republicans who didn't show enough loyalty to me and didn't run the right
43:10campaigns and all of that. So I don't think this man is capable of accepting any kind of criticism whatsoever. And he lives in his own fantasy world that is an echo chamber of compliments to him. So I don't think he takes any responsibility. Now, the more interesting question is the one you asked earlier. What do other Republicans do? What do Republicans in the Congress do, especially if they're from so-called swing districts and they survived this midterm? What do they do? Do they begin to cooperate with Democrats to try to pass legislation that deals with big problems? Does Trump let them because, you know, he feels like, you know, he can take credit for anything that is done? I don't know. We're going to wait and see. But some of these Republicans,
43:56honest to goodness, have been so oblivious and willing to follow Trump right off the cliff. I don't know if they can, you know, clamber their way back up. Mike Johnson is the Olympic version of this. I'm, you know what I really am? I have to say I'm super excited to see him on Dancing with Stars going forward against Pete Hegseth. That's going to be a great season. That would be a terrific, I'd even watch it. I'd watch it. I'd watch it. Yeah. Although the latest little rumor is that Hegseth is trying to lobby Marsha Blackburn when she gets elected governor, which appears like it's going to happen, in Tennessee to appoint him to her Senate seat. So he would leave the Defense Department. Before they kick him out.
44:43Before he gets impeached and gets kicked out. Exactly. Right. So what do you think? Will she do that? She's not doing that for him. Why? I don't know why she would do that. Why would she? She's speaking of political creatures. But you know, you never know in Trump world. You have no idea. She won't do it. Once she got the seat, she knows Trump is out. No. Let's see. We'll see. But some of those hardcore Republicans, you know, love all of his, you know, shenanigans. So maybe they do go along with it. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. I don't, for some reason, I get a vibe of like, it's mine now from her. That's what I get. I don't need you anymore. I don't need you. I don't need you anymore. And I shall now disdain you.
45:19That would be a great country song. It would be. I don't need you anymore. I followed you into the fire. Not sung by Marsha Blackburn. Anyway, we'll see. Madam Secretary, let's take a quick break and we're going to talk about governor's race. People are not talking enough about the governor's races and I think they're critically important. Ask yourself, what are your best people spending their time on right now? Expense reports, receipt chasing, month-end close that takes weeks. You become what you spend on, and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts. AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically so your team can spend their time on what actually compounds.
46:07It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. As soon as autumn rolls around and you swap your iced lattes for pumpkin spice, that's your signal to start thinking about the holidays, the decor, the gifts, the shopping lists, but more importantly, the holiday treats. Cheesecakes, cookies, is there anything better? And when the recipe calls for cream cheese, there's only one option. Philadelphia, the original cream cheese made with fresh milk and real cream. This holiday season, whether you're going all out or keeping it simple, make it really Philly good. Find your favorite holiday recipe at creamcheese.com. As soon as autumn rolls around and you swap your iced lattes for pumpkin spice,
47:09that's your signal to start thinking about the holidays, the decor, the gifts, the shopping lists, but more importantly, the holiday treats. Cheesecakes, cookies, is there anything better? And when the recipe calls for cream cheese, there's only one option. Philadelphia, the original cream cheese made with fresh milk and real cream. This holiday season, whether you're going all out or keeping it simple, make it really Philly good. Find your favorite holiday recipe at creamcheese.com. Madam Secretary, we're back. 36 governorships are on the ballot, including six of the seven presidential battlegrounds. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The only one not on the ballot is North Carolina, which has elected its governor in 2024. They have nothing to do with control of Congress.
48:09But let's explain, and then we'll go through the three most contentious races. Explain why they're important, please, for us. Well, first of all, Cara, they do have quite a bit to do with the control of Congress every 10 years when we do a census and then the states actually redistrict and draw congressional maps based on that census. So who the governor is, is a big deal for what happens in the elections going forward after the census, you know, redistricting is completed. That's why Trump called Governor Abbott in Texas and said, find me more seats, because that's where the governor's influence and power over Congress really comes from, how they decide where the lines are drawn. But they also are really important
48:57because the states still have to be the laboratories of democracy. The work that I'm doing at the Clinton Policy Institute is all about working with states. The national government won't do anything to regulate social media now, to regulate AI, to keep kids safe. So states have been taking the lead, states like New York and Illinois and California, but others as well when they, you know, get phones out of schools. And it's a kind of red-blue issue. So governors really matter. And I think looking at these governors' races and encouraging people to not just be focused on the congressional midterms, but also the elections at the state level. And especially conducting elections for 2028, that's critical. That's right. They're going to have to stand up against all the crazy things
49:41that Trump is trying to do, you know, from Alaska to wherever in the aftermath of this midterm election. Right. So let's go through three of the most contentious races. In Georgia, we have former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms versus billionaire Republican Rick Jackson. If Bottoms wins, she'll be the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since 1998. Incredible. And possibly the first Black woman elected to governor anywhere, which is repulsive as far as I'm concerned. John Ossoff is comfortably ahead in the Senate race, but Bottoms is tied in the same ballot. What is Bottoms not giving those voters that Ossoff is besides his Atlanta Act, whatever it happens to be? And in 2020, Georgia's Republican governor and Secretary
50:22of State refused Trump's pressure to overturn the results. So how confident are you that Jackson would do the same if he wins? It's a great set of questions. You know, I really like Keisha. I've known her a long time. I did a fundraiser for her in New York to support her campaign. I think she's a really positive, solid candidate. But she's running for an executive position as a black woman in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat, let alone a woman, to be governor. And so for a long time, the odds are kind of stacked against her. But boy, she is in the hunt. She is within the margin of error in the polls that I've seen. The Ossoff campaign is when you ask about the pressure on states to overturn elections,
51:28to literally come up with votes, as we all remember Trump calling the governor and the secretary of state after the 2020 election. That's Brad Raffensperger. And Brian Kemp. And they stood up against that pressure. They did. I am not confident that Jackson would do the same. You know, he seems kind of a creation of Trump, and he certainly has not distanced himself from Trump. So I think that Georgia has a lot at stake in not only who governs, you know, the state going forward, but, you know, in making sure they have a governor that is going to reflect the will of the state, not Donald Trump. Right. What is the key thing there in that state, I think she's got a real fighting chance. I think, you know, it still is a challenge because voters are, I think, maybe believing, well, I can vote for Ossoff, but I traditionally vote Republican.
52:42So maybe then I better stick with the Republican and the governor's race. Voters go through a lot of different thought processes. Splitting the ticket. I'm just hoping voters say, look, Georgia can be so much more than it is. It can have a much better future for everybody who lives there if you elect both Keisha and John. Right, together. All right, moving on to Ohio. Oh, what a race that is. Boy, what a rotten, terrible candidate Ramaswamy has turned out to be. This is Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. The news here is all about his attack ad with the mother, the horrible mother of Amy Acton. His campaign spent $4 million, the ad where Amy Acton's estranged mother, estranged for 40 years, by the way, attacked her own daughter. Obviously, there's a huge backstory
53:31here that the mother backed the person who was indicted for raping her at 12 years old. So this is a terrible story. The current Republican governor, Mike DeWine, said it's wrong to run the ad while Vice President J.D. Vance has stood by Ramaswamy despite the backlash. Ramaswamy has Trump's backing in the state. Trump carries every time and he's still a tight race. The problem, is it Vivek or Trump's endorsement is worth less than it used to be? Most people don't think he's going to win. They think this ad did him in. But you never know. Why is he doing it if he doesn't think it's going to work? That's my feeling. Like, why keep doubling down on stupid? You know, I think you've assessed it exactly right.
54:11It was a tight race going into the ad that is so vile, untrue, and in my view, a reflection of where the, you know, the Trump cult is when it comes to any kind of ethical, moral standard. The fact that, you know, J.D. Vance jumped in. J.D. Vance, who knows what it is to have an abusive, neglectful mother. As I recall, he basically had to be taken away from his own mother and raised by his grandmother because of her drug abuse and her behavior when he was a child. And for him to double down on this horrible ad that Ramaswami, you know, somehow believed would help him, you know, just shows how morally bankrupt they all are. And I want them beaten because they're not good people. They shouldn't be in charge of
55:03anybody's family's future. So why are they doing it? Why are they doing it? Because they have learned all of the lessons of how to win in the Trump era. Lie until you cannot lie any longer. Just keep lying. Gaslight everybody. You know, create a false image of your opponents. Use virtual images and disinformation to, you know, try to convince enough people that no matter how bad you are, your opponent is even worse on something that is as fundamental as, you know, your family relationships and the kind of claims that Ramaswamy made with his ad with Amy's mother, who not only stood by while her husband, Amy's stepfather, abused, sexually abused Amy, but she herself has been convicted of wrongdoing.
56:01You know, but they all know better. But they have such a low opinion of the American voter that they think they can lie and get it believed. They must think it works. They must think this. Can I ask you, what is the worst ad against you that got you? I thought Amy Acton is handling this very terrible thing very well with a lot of dignity. I also know her. I have supported her, done a fundraiser for her. She's a solid person. I just wish Mike DeWine not only condemned the ad, because Mike DeWine knows her. He put her in charge of the state's COVID response. But I wish Mike DeWine would go a step further. He's done with politics. He served in the Senate. He served as governor. He has nothing to lose.
56:42He should as governor. He has nothing to lose. He should say something. I serve with him. I serve with him in the Senate. And come on, Mike, say you're not going to vote for Ramaswamy. Not just condemn the ad, but say you're not going to vote for him. That's what I wish Mike DeWine would do and other Republicans as well. Mike? Come on, Mike, please. Is there an ad that stuck with you that was against you that you were like, I cannot believe they just do that? You know, most of the really effective ads and memes and claims and conspiracies about me happened online. Yeah. Because what— You remember, you were a lizard. Honest to goodness, you know, Facebook was the worst offender against me in everything they did.
57:21And Pizzagate, which, you know, was, you know, just a huge lie that took off. And, you know, I can't really catalog them all because there were so many of them. And, you know, that was like 10 years ago. And we were, frankly, ill-prepared, unaware of how effective it could be. I'm asking if there's one that got you. Like, oh, my God. Look, I think Pizzagate was really effective. When people, you know, when these ads against me, these really terrible, horrible, false claims about me were running all over the internet, some with Russian money, for heaven's sakes, the people who were campaigning for me, they were on the phones, they were knocking on doors, they would have voters say, you know what? I can't vote for her because she kills people or she traffics children or whatever
58:13they were told and that they believed. And when my supporters would say, where did you hear that? It's not true. They'd say, oh, I saw it on the internet. And the naivete and the susceptibility of people seeing a video or seeing something in print that looked legitimate was so powerful. And that's why you can't count out all of the money that is being spent against our candidates to lie about them again. Yeah. It's interesting because that Pizzagate thing did resonate. It really did. I've had lots of people. The lizard one was driving me crazy just because I was like, she's not a lizard. I'm pretty sure she's not. I'll show you my scales next time I see this person. Anyway, last one, Texas.
58:54Yes. Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democrat State Rep Gina Hinojosa of Austin. Recent polls have them within a few points of each other. Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990. She was a legend, by the way. If Hinojosa and Tallarico both win, is Texas really changing or are voters just sending Trump a message? And again, Elon Musk is backing the state of Musk, moved to Tesla, SpaceX, and X to Texas and spending millions to keep the state red. If she wins, what happens to all his investments? Not good, not good. Well, again, I think Gina is running a really strong campaign and she has state legislative experience just like James Tallarico does. And she knows what is possible for Texas to do and how, you know, leaders like Governor Abbott and, you know, Paxton are always catering to their billionaire supporters, to their most extreme right wing followers.
59:57And so I think that it's not only a vote against Trump. I think it's a vote against the mismanagement of the governance of Texas. You know, you look at Texas and you think, my gosh, it's such a rich state, but it has some of the highest poverty rates. It has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the country because, you know, Texas hasn't taken care of the needs of the people of Texas. And it has a huge voucher system that is slowly eroding school districts all over the state, especially rural school districts that are the pride of their communities. It has the data center debate where it looked like Abbott would approve any data center there was. And when the reaction from traditionally Republican areas started coming in, he goes, oh, no, no,
1:00:45we'll put a moratorium, we'll wait. I think the voters of Texas, regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, are saying, wow, we could do so much better than these guys. And, you know, again, it's within the margin of error, but who thought she'd get this close? And I think she could get over the line if people support her. They may be tired of him too, right? I think they are tired. He's been around a really long time and he's, you know, he's very didactic and dogmatic and, you know, very self-righteous. And I think people are like, wait a minute, what have you done for me? What have you done that actually improved my life and my prospects? And so I'm hoping that she can, you know, she can pull it off.
1:01:25This could be the big shocker. I think that would be a big shocker. And what an interesting candidate to run Texas, right? Like so young, so fresh versus like sad old Greg. Yeah. And the energy stuff isn't, I've heard a lot of people in Texas, including conservatives, be angry about the energy issues there in terms of the weather. Also, there are a lot of people in Texas who were very much in favor of Trump's crackdown on immigration. Now it's done. You know, that's one of the issues that has really motivated voters. But now they've seen the results. It's not just enforcing the law. I was looking at the numbers of deportations under various presidents. And if you compare my husband and Barack Obama to Trump, both Bill and Barack deported more people, but they didn't delight
1:02:13in the cruelty. They didn't delight in breaking up families. They didn't delight in having masked men pulling guns on citizens and even shooting citizens. And so I think voters are like, okay, yeah, we wanted to crack down on illegal immigration. Okay, thank you very much, but did you have to go this far? And don't we need a more reasonable way of protecting our borders than what you all are doing? So I think there's a lot of issues that voters from South Texas to North Texas are looking at. And when you think about that state, it would be, Ann Richards was legendary. It'd be astonishing to have another woman. We'll see. We'll see. All right, Madam Secretary, one more quick break. We'll be back to talk about your own personal experience. I want to ask you some questions.
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1:04:46Terms apply. Open your SoFi checking and savings account today at SoFi.com slash Fox Bank. SoFi checking and savings is offered through SoFi Bank N.A., member FDIC. Madam Secretary, we're back. You've lived the last week of a campaign more times than anyone, and you've had an election night go wrong way. What's going through a candidate's head right now with a week left? Because I know a lot of voters are like, Kamala was ahead at this time. Hillary was ahead at this time. You know what I mean? There's a lot of that going on with people. So don't believe the polls, this and that. So what is going on? What was going on in your head besides fuck James Comey? But what was going on? Yeah. I mean, it is such an intense, intense, stressful time.
1:05:42Because you also know while you're making your closing argument and you're racing around either your state or your district or your country, people are voting. Millions and millions of people have already voted in this election. They've already made up their minds. So you're trying to, you know, motivate people to turn out and you know they're already making their judgment. So it's something that you're not sure exactly how you're doing because you can go into a state or a district and you can see that 30% of the electorate has already cast a vote, early voting, requests for mail ballots or absentee ballots. So you've got to be constantly trying to figure out where are the voters that I can persuade? Who can I get to the polls that
1:06:23would otherwise stay home? And the messaging that you're doing is just one of the countless messages that voters are receiving. They're receiving messages you're aware of because they're kind of above the, you know, the waterline and you know what they're saying about you. But then there's all this other dark money and there's the organizing you don't know what's happening. And there's the Facebook groups and the Facebook groups and the affinity groups and everything that is happening below the surface. So you really are operating with less than full information and you're trying to get as best a position as you can to, you know, get your own voters to turn out but persuade those who are still persuadable.
1:07:02So when you were in that moment, now the decision desk right now gives Democrats an only 80% chance of retaking the House, Polymark and Kelsher even higher, and a 56% chance of getting the Senate. The Democrats have been misled before. And again, you know how that feels. Take a moment. What was that like? Because you thought you were going to win, I suspect, right? I certainly did. Yeah. And, you know, the polling said I was going to win. Our internal polling said the same. You know, the night before the election, we had a huge rally in Philadelphia and President Obama gave me a big hug and said, you've got this because he was doing his own polling and his own what are called analytics, you know, that are trying to analyze every piece of information you can get. But also people have been voting for 10 days since Jim Comey,
1:07:45you know, threw that gigantic monkey wrench into the election. And that meant that a lot of people were rethinking their support for me. And we know that. I wrote all about it in my book called What Happened. And I still think that book will teach you a lot about how difficult it is to really know what's happening, particularly with online activity. But, you know, the Comey action was right out there in plain sight, and it had a terrible effect on voters. And we catalog that in the book. Right. But what do you think when you're reading the polls now? Do you go to, you do this, do you have the same like knee-jerk reaction? I'm not going to believe this. Well, I look at them and we know that polling is
1:08:26much more difficult to do now than it used to be. That's what Mike Johnson's claiming. They're not answering polls, the Republicans. Well, there's some truth to that. But we do have a lot of information. We have information about in states where voters register by party who's actually voting early, who's requesting, you know, mail ballots. We have a lot of information. So I do think it's fair to say, as Decision Desk says, that the chances of the Democrats taking the House are really high. The chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are not as high. They're just over 50 percent. So what does it come down to? It comes down to what it always comes down to. People have to get out and vote. And, you know, anytime I hear somebody say it doesn't really matter, well, for heaven's
1:09:09sakes, you know, it really does matter. They're trying to take away your health care and provide no alternative. They have tariffed everything that they can possibly tariff, raising costs at your kitchen table, at your gas pump. They launched a reckless, unsuccessful war with Iran that has also increased costs. I mean, for heaven's sakes, it really matters. So you have to send a message about the kind of leadership that you want. And if you want to continue with the Trump chaos and cruelty and corruption, fine, don't vote. And so I just want people to realize this is not just an ordinary election. And oh, my gosh, you're too busy to turn up and vote. And so I just want people to realize this is not just an ordinary election.
1:09:46And oh, my gosh, you're too busy to turn up and vote. You know, you got to get out there and vote. And a lot of states still have, you know, early voting. What are you most worried about? And what is the positive side? Oh, I'm most worried about the flood of money from the Elon Musks and the Trump supporters distorting the election, confusing voters, convincing them either not to show up and vote because it doesn't matter or show up and vote for Republicans. I think that's our biggest challenge right now. But on the positive side, I think people are voting their reality. And the lies and the distortion and the gaslighting just may not work because it's when you pull up to fill up your tank or your tractor,
1:10:29for heaven's sakes, the reality contradicts Donald Trump and his cult members. And I think that is the most positive trend right now is that Trump and the Republicans are trying to tell you, don't believe your own eyes. Don't believe your lion eyes. I think people are smarter than that. If you had to pick one result, next week we'll know. We'll be talking when we know. What's the one result next week that would tell you Democrats are in trouble for 2028? Oh, you know, look, I think, Cara, that if we don't win the House, that would be a disaster. If we don't win the Senate, that would be a huge disappointment. And I think that would tell us that even reality is no match for, you know, Trump's fantasy world. And we got to figure
1:11:13out how to break through that. I don't think that's going to happen. I'm right now quite optimistic if people turn out and vote that we're going to have a big win in the House and we are going to take back the Senate. I really believe that. But if people get confused or discouraged or just told things that aren't true, that convince them not to show up and vote, then that's a problem. But it's not just a problem for Democrats. It's a problem for them, and it's a problem for the country. What is something you wish someone had told you before November 8th, 2016, a day that you'll live in infamy? I wish somebody had told me that I needed to take on Jim Comey. I needed to really challenge his breach of precedent, his breaking
1:11:54the Justice Department's, you know, norms of not interfering in elections, his, you know, deliberate, reckless effort to curry favor with the Republicans. I wish I had taken it on in a very forthright, frontal way. And I didn't. And I didn't because, you know, for a lot of reasons, you know, did I want to pick a fight with the director of the FBI? Well, in retrospect, yeah, I did. So, yeah, I wish I had been really in his face. You got to push back. And by the way, let's be clear, not with a sword like me. Not with a, no, no. I'm giving you the sword. I'm not wielding the sword. No, but you're right. You should have pushed back. It's hard because you sort of want to do the right thing. Yeah. I've been the do right person for way too long when it comes to,
1:12:41you know, not fighting back because the old assumptions are gone and you've got to be much more in the mix and aware of, you know, what the real dangers are and speak up and fight back. As my friend Maria Ressa's book, The Fight Back, you know, you got to fight back against authoritarians, whether they're in government or the tech industry, if you're going to save democracy and create a better future. That's why you're hanging out with me, because you know in the prison yard we will rule with me at your side. Yeah, I mean, you're going to be my enforcer if you don't mind. Are you kidding? Abso-fucking-lutely. Are you crazy? I will make things happen. Don't you worry. I'll shut things down. We can hang out with Elizabeth Holmes.
1:13:22All right, last thing. If Trump loses and loses big, the Senate, the House, everyone kicks him in the teeth people need to be prepared for, is he becomes even more unhinged and sadly more dangerous. Because as I have mentioned before, there's a concept in behavioral psychology where people who are in what's called the domain of loss, they double down on risk. And I think that he's going to most likely launch more attacks on Iran, which I think put more American lives, not just military, but civilian lives at risk and not just in the Middle East, but in other places as well. I think he is going to demand even greater loyalty from the Republicans to stick with him. And so, yeah, I think we need Democrats and Americans, primarily Americans, to say, look,
1:14:28we passed judgment on you and your administration and you were not successful because we don't want to continue what you're doing. And a Democratic Congress has to pass legislation to try to rein him in. We have to bring more lawsuits to try to rein him in. We have to try to shame him. You know, it did work in ending this terrible idea of, you know, streaming and execution. There was such outrage across the country that they did back off. So yeah, here's my prediction, Kara. Okay. You heard it here first. Trump is going to start coming apart at the seams. We actually did talk about this at the dinner where we cooked up this podcast. He's underwater on the issues that brought him to power, immigration, foreign
1:15:11policy, the economy. He's a lame duck. You may not know that, but he is a lame duck. And he's soon going to have a Democratic Congress trying to rein him in, hold him accountable, and investigate Kim, his administration, his family, his supporters and allies, he literally has held Republicans hostage for a decade. And that only works for so long. One day the hostages look around and say, there are more of us than there is of him. We need to take him on. And I think we can see that happen. So buckle up. The election is just the beginning. We have to win the election to rein him in and hold him accountable. And then we have to show we can govern and make smart decisions that are going to actually help the American people on affordability and also against
1:15:55corruption. Those are the two big issues. Buckle up. Thank you, Betty Davis on that one. Margo, it's going to be a bumpy night. It's going to be a bumpy night, but we're going to be here to help sort it out next week. What's going to happen, aren't we? We will. We will let you know. Again, Hillary, this has been a pleasure. You know, I was saying to someone, what's really nice about this is obviously you're a Democrat. Hello, you ran for the Democratic presidential as a candidate, but it's like a civics lesson. It's critical. If we're going to preserve our democracy, we better figure out how to make it work. Exactly. Among all of us. Anyway, happy birthday. It's still your birthday here in the United States of America. And I hope you have the best rest of your birthday and many more
1:16:34to come. Thank you for listening. We'll be back on a different day next week. Join us Friday to process all the Electrum results. Hillary's going to be here. I know she's going to have the data. The woman carries a briefcase. She will have all the information and she will sort out every single vote for you. I will just make jokes along the way about swords and other things. Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman and Madeline LaPlante Dubé. Our tape editors are Mose Bergman and Brandon McFarlane. Rosemary Ho provided the fact-checking. Bob Guile and Dennis Chang helped us out in Tokyo. Thank you so much for that. Nick Merrill was in charge of manifesting positive vibes. As usual, useless. Thanks also to Art Chung, Abby Krinsky,
1:17:19Renee Betterson, and Anna Casey. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to High Stakes from Vox Media. We'll be back next week. Go vote, everybody. Go vote. Thank you. like yours. Book a trip in as little as two and a half minutes. Earn up to 10% back on hotels. And in 2025, Enjin customers save more than $300 million on travel with zero booking fees, no contracts, and no BS. More than a thousand businesses join Enjin every month. Join them and get $500 when your business signs up and starts traveling at engine.com. All-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together. From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all-in-one powerful platform.
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