Who is expected to win New Zealand's general election between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins?

Nobody is a clear favourite, according to Katie Watson's BBC report. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National party and Chris Hipkins's Labour both poll around or just under 30%, and political scientist Luke Oldfield of Victoria University in Wellington expects the next government to be a coalition of at least two and probably three or four parties. The Electoral Commission is due to declare a winner on 27 November.

• Hipkins promises free doctor visits, a $20 a week public transport fare cap and a three-year freeze on fuel taxes.
• Luxon says he inherited 7.3% inflation and that the economy now grows faster than Australia's and the UK's.
• Qiulae Wong's small Opportunity Party could end up as a power broker.
• Nearly 50,000 New Zealanders moved to Australia last year, including former prime minister Jacinda Ardern.

▸In their words

“One thing we can be confident of is that there will be another coalition required.” Luke Oldfield · at 19:10 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on Global News Podcast (2026-11-05). Read the whole episode summary →

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