When does Arvind Krishna say quantum computers will break today's encryption? — Arvind Krishna and Nikesh Arora on All-In

Arvind Krishna said on All-In that estimates for a working quantum computer range from 2028 to 2033, and that taking the midpoint of about 2030, it will break today's cryptography. He added that post-quantum cryptography is already understood and coded, but companies have been slow to adopt it, and that stolen encrypted disks can be stored now and broken later.

Krishna noted DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative started with a couple of hundred companies and is down to about 13.
Krishna expects one or two firms to show real error correction by 2027.
Gate computations sit around 10,000 today; adding a zero a year would reach 10 million by 2029, in Krishna's arithmetic.
Nikesh Arora said companies are already late if the date is 2029 or 2030, because rebuilding IT infrastructure takes years.

▸In their words

“The good news is post-quantum cryptography is understood.” Arvind Krishna · at 1:37 — open in the transcript →

Source: our own transcription of the episode. The full conversation is on All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg (2026-10-21). Read the whole episode summary →

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